No Guarantee Debt Limit Deal Gets Through the House

By: Monday August 1, 2011 8:20 am

There’s no real guarantee that this thing gets through the House. I think Senate passage is far more likely – there will be some falloff on the left and the right, but enough in the middle to get the thing over the line. The House is a different animal.


DREAM Act Looks Short of 60 Votes for Cloture

By: Friday December 17, 2010 2:50 pm

Before the DADT repeal vote on Saturday, the Senate will take up the DREAM Act. Both votes came up as a House amendment to a Senate amendment to a bill, so they only require one cloture vote, a motion to concur. If they invoke cloture with 60 votes, they would only need a simple majority after that, and Harry Reid will fill the amendment tree on the measures, so if something passes, it would look identical to what the House passed. With Senators Bennett and Lugar in the bag, a unified caucus would mean 60 votes. But given the nature of how the vote is being brought up, I think the overwhelmingly likely outcome is that it fails tomorrow.

Scott Brown Announces Support for Repealing “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell”

By: Friday December 3, 2010 12:30 pm

Bob Gates successfully convinced Brown on the implementation process, which should concern people a bit, especially as Gates might not be around to do the implementation. Gates did say that he would not “slow-walk” things, but what about his successor? What if a President Palin reaches office without implementation in place, and she just never certifies it? I don’t know if that’s likely, but it’s something to watch.

Dozens of Democrats Come Out Against Social Security Cuts, Even Those in Tough Races

By: Thursday August 19, 2010 12:40 pm

While Mike Allen’s anonymous win-the-day sources tell him that the Obama Administration would welcome a deal in the cat food commission around Social Security to “establish credibility with the markets” (with 10-year bond yields at a rock-bottom 2.56%, I’d say the credibility has been established), others in the Democratic coalition are slowly drawing a line in the sand against any cuts to Social Security benefits. This includes members in some of the most hard-fought seats in the country in November.

Levin Wants DADT Repeal in Defense Authorization Bill; Needs 15 Votes in Committee

By: Wednesday May 12, 2010 12:45 pm

Carl Levin is giving his word – he will try to put a repeal of the military’s Don’t Ask Don’t Tell policy in the defense authorization bill, perhaps as soon as this month. However, he will need the 15 votes on the Senate Armed Services Committee necessary to make it stick.

Sanchez Returns to Washington, Likely a Yes Vote; UPDATE: Cooper Voting Yes, Donnelly in Agreement, 216 in Hand

By: Sunday March 21, 2010 4:18 pm

as a news peg, let me show you Loretta Sanchez’ tweet from the well of the House:

Looking forward to casting my vote on this historic health care bill! House is currently set to vote around 11pm EST.

I think a “No” vote after that statement would be, well, odd. So she’s a yes.

New Whip Count, With Changes To Reflect The Stupak Bloc

By: Saturday March 20, 2010 9:15 am

(see the update)

OK, so NRO has not always been right (understatement of the year), but they claim that Stupak told their sources that he’s “finished with Pelosi” and the enrollment corrections bill is dead. So I’ve taken a second look at the numbers to reflect what we know, and the challenge facing the Democratic leadership.

DeFazio’s Objections Could Set Off Other Members

By: Friday March 19, 2010 11:35 am

I don’t take Peter DeFazio’s carping about the health care bill entirely seriously. But his substantive argument – that Democratic leaders took out a Medicare reimbursement measure that would have changed geographic disparities – could shift other members of the caucus: “Unless they put that back in, I can’t support it,” Defazio said, referring to [...]

New Health Care Whip Count: 193 Yes, 208 No (with Leaners: 203-211); Update 2x: 195 Yes

By: Friday March 19, 2010 8:00 am

We’re going to start to see this firm up, and we can focus attention on the last holdouts. We can determine if all those No-Yes flippers can offset the Stupak bloc, and if enough of them can get peeled off, that’s basically what it’s come down to. But there still may be some surprises.

New Health Care Whip Count: 189 Yes, 202 No

By: Thursday March 11, 2010 1:34 pm

That looks like a major departure from my last whip count. That’s because there’s been a major development. House leaders have given up on trying to please Bart Stupak and will try to pass a bill without him and his bloc.

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