An important story from James Risen shows why anyone with a passion for more war who talks about the “intelligence” on Iran’s nuclear program should not be listened to. In fact, we know precious little about that program, and even what we do know gets shifted by new information all the time.

It appears that the US is negotiating with two heads of state. There’s the Hamid Karzai who publicly lambasted the Americans as “demons,” accuses them of “Satanic acts,” and equates the presence of US forces with the Taliban. Then there’s the Karzai who, behind the scenes, pliantly offers permanent bases to the Americans.

The United States and Afghanistan have signed a deal to transfer all prisoners in the military-run prisons at Bagram Air Force Base to the control of the Afghans, a move that paves the way for a long-term security arrangement.

The Strategic Partnership Agreement, which Washington and Kabul have been discussing for over a year, will be the framework for U.S. involvement in Afghanistan beyond 2014, when the last foreign combat troops are due to leave Afghanistan.

Lindsey Graham said he’d “pull the plug” on continued US troops in Afghanistan unless President Karzai agrees to US demands for maintaining control of detainees and continuing night raids on suspected Taliban houses, claiming we can’t “win” without that authority. Last year he criticized Obama for getting most troops out of Iraq even though the Iraqis refused to grant immunity for crimes committed there.

In the President’s press conference, he focused mostly on Iran, to the exclusion of even a single question about Eric Holder’s asserted right to kill American citizens without a trial. I think the President runs a risk asserting that he didn’t have a “containment policy” on Iran. But his focus has been on the near-term consequences of Israel acting along to strike at Iranian facilities. He also took aim at the amped-up rhetoric at home pushing the world into war; in his presser, he had some pretty strong words about that

For those thinking that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would say one thing in public and another in private while in the White House, you can probably put that to rest. For reports are leaking out about that White House meeting, and the best that can be said about it is that Netanyahu hasn’t put the bombers into the sky just yet.

A day after speaking at the AIPAC conference, President Obama met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today. The telegraphed message from the President for this meeting was to tell Netanyahu that he has a friend in the United States, that sanctions should be given time to work, and that Israel should not seek a unilateral strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. And Netanyahu basically said “I’ll do what I want.”

President Obama had a somewhat contradictory message for the AIPAC conference on Sunday, an outgrowth of his typical play for a middle course in any and all things. On the one hand, he decried “loose talk of war”. On the other hand, he exhibited… loose talk of war, while pushing for sanctions that in the past have had serious consequences for the innocent.

Director Asghar Farhadi won the Best Foreign Language Film last night at the Academy Awards for his film A Separation. And the Iranian had a message he delivered in a handwritten speech, directed at both Western and Iranian public officials.

If we see military action in Iran in the next several months, you can trace part of the reason back to a redistricting quirk in the San Fernando Valley and a debate between Democratic House Representatives Howard Berman and Brad Sherman, redrawn into the same district. They spend most of the night trying to be the most belligerent to Iran and most solicitous to whatever Israel wants.