An analysis earlier this year by Paul Blumenthal at the Sunlight Foundation found that, even in wave elections, incumbents who raise 70 percent of the total campaign contributions in their race almost never lost. It was also determined that, even in 1994, only one-third of incumbents that raise between 60 to 70 percent of the money in their races ended up losing.

If this pattern holds up, Democrats should be in better shape than generic ballot polling or political prognosticators indicate. There are currently nine incumbent Democrats who are ranked as “toss-up” or “likely to lose” who have raised 70 percent or more of the money in their race, and 18 Democrats who have raised between 60 and 70 percent of the total contributions in their races.