Arkansas, led by popular Democratic Governor Mike Beebe, has done a cost analysis of the Medicaid expansion, finding that it would save the state $372 million. The state could face slightly higher costs in the out years. But will conservative governors be swayed by this type of analysis?

I keep seeing these confident predictions from health care experts that no state would be so foolish as to reject the Medicaid expansion for their state. I want to set up a poker game with these people, to provide for my family in retirement. How many times can you say “well that’s so radical and extreme, it could never happen!” and be wrong before you review your assumptions?