Bottom line: It’s all going to come down to turnout. Will young voters buck historic midterm trends and show up for Prop 19? As Jon Walker noted, among those who have already sent in their ballots, Prop 19 is narrowly losing. But it leads among those who plan to vote and have not done so. If there was ever a measure in need of a crack turnout operation, this is it. Unfortunately, there never really was one assembled due to lack of resources.
|By: Jon Walker Thursday October 21, 2010 1:15 pm|
The fate of Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana in California, is still very much up in the air. Depending on which most recent polls you look at, the measure is either winning by a few points or losing by a few points. Looking into the crosstabs of the polling on this proposition, it is clear that the success or failure of Prop 19 rides on the ability of its supporters to get out the vote.
|By: Jon Walker Wednesday October 20, 2010 8:04 am|
Proposition 19, the initiative to legalize, regulate, and tax marijuana in California, is still holding on to a very narrow lead according to a new SurveyUSA poll.
|By: Jon Walker Tuesday October 5, 2010 1:20 pm|
An important point is that early voting officially began Monday in California. For Prop 19 to be holding steady or slightly improving as the first votes are being cast is good news.
|By: Jon Walker Sunday September 26, 2010 1:30 pm|
Support for California Proposition 19, which would legalize, regulate and tax marijuana, increased significantly in the latest Field Poll (PDF). Yes on Prop 19 is now winning 49% compared to 42% against.
|By: Jon Walker Friday September 24, 2010 4:30 pm|
The good news keeps coming for incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer. The latest Field Poll of likely voters has her leading Carly Fiorina by six points.
|By: Jon Walker Thursday September 23, 2010 7:00 pm|
Throughout this cycle, SurveyUSA’s polling in California has been slightly less favorable for Democrats, but the most recent poll for CBS 5 shows clear movement in favor of Gubernatorial candidate Jerry Brown and incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer. Both Democrats now lead in their respective races.
|By: Jon Walker Thursday September 23, 2010 8:40 am|
Support for Prop 19 has remained remarkably steady for a ballot measure. This recent poll is in fact a statistically insignificant change from three weeks ago when SurveyUSA last polled the question and found it at 47 percent yes, 43 percent no, and barely changed from July when the ballot measure was leading 50 percent yes, 40 percent no.
The big question that Prop 19′s success or failure hangs on is probably whether having marijuana legalization on the ballot causes the young voters that overwhelmingly support it to turn out in higher numbers, like the levels seen for a presidential election. High youth turnout could be the difference between a 49-51 loss and a 51-49 victory. The evidence from PPP polling is that Prop 19 is likely having some measurable effect on increased enthusiasm among younger voters.
|By: Jon Walker Wednesday September 22, 2010 12:17 pm|
The ballot initiative Proposition 19, which would legalize, tax and regulate marijuana in California, still leads by nine points in the latest poll from PPP.