There are several updates today thanks mainly to a new round of polling from The Hill newspaper. At the beginning of the week, I wrote of how remarkably competitive so many of these races remained so close to election day, and how many would break one way or another depending on the atmosphere this last week. With that in mind, the news is not good for Democrats.
|By: Jon Walker Wednesday October 27, 2010 1:50 pm|
|By: Jon Walker Wednesday October 27, 2010 8:51 am|
This is not a good sign for Proposition 19. The California initiative to legalize and tax marijuana has lost a small amount of support in the latest SurveyUSA poll. For the first time in their polling, the “lean no” side outnumbers the “lean yes” side by two points.
|By: Jon Walker Tuesday October 26, 2010 8:45 am|
Ballot measures tend to be much harder to accurately poll than partisan elections. Each initiative is a unique question with its own quirky set of parameters regarding which demographics and psychographics are most likely to support or oppose it. In comparison, all partisan elections between a Democrat and Republican are, at a core level, fairly similar.
|By: Jon Walker Friday October 22, 2010 5:15 pm|
Yes on Proposition 19 has just released a set of internal numbers for polling they conducted last week, which compared responses given to live interviewers versus automated telephone polling. Interestingly, there is a huge divide between the level of support expressed for Prop 19 with the two methodologies. They find that if an individual is responding only to a computer program, they are much more likely to express support for Prop 19.
|By: Jane Hamsher Friday October 22, 2010 9:35 am|
Bottom line: It’s all going to come down to turnout. Will young voters buck historic midterm trends and show up for Prop 19? As Jon Walker noted, among those who have already sent in their ballots, Prop 19 is narrowly losing. But it leads among those who plan to vote and have not done so. If there was ever a measure in need of a crack turnout operation, this is it. Unfortunately, there never really was one assembled due to lack of resources.
|By: Jon Walker Thursday October 21, 2010 1:15 pm|
The fate of Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana in California, is still very much up in the air. Depending on which most recent polls you look at, the measure is either winning by a few points or losing by a few points. Looking into the crosstabs of the polling on this proposition, it is clear that the success or failure of Prop 19 rides on the ability of its supporters to get out the vote.
|By: Jon Walker Wednesday October 20, 2010 8:04 am|
Proposition 19, the initiative to legalize, regulate, and tax marijuana in California, is still holding on to a very narrow lead according to a new SurveyUSA poll.
|By: Jon Walker Tuesday October 5, 2010 1:20 pm|
An important point is that early voting officially began Monday in California. For Prop 19 to be holding steady or slightly improving as the first votes are being cast is good news.
|By: Jon Walker Sunday September 26, 2010 1:30 pm|
Support for California Proposition 19, which would legalize, regulate and tax marijuana, increased significantly in the latest Field Poll (PDF). Yes on Prop 19 is now winning 49% compared to 42% against.