This primary definitely speaks to the deep anti-incumbent mood in the country.

Here’s part three of the liveblog on the House of Representative’s health insurance reform vote (live on C-Span). With the announcement of a deal with Bart Stupak (D-MI) it seems very likely that the bill will pass.

Welcome to the liveblog on the House of Representative’s health insurance reform vote. Whether you support the bill or opposite it, whether the bill passes or doesn’t this is a historic vote.

If a potential deal is struck with the Stupak bloc and the “pro-choice” caucus does not bolt, there would seem to be little standing in the way of the bills final passage.

The topline news is that Scott Murphy (D-NY), who has gone back and forth on health care, has come out in favor of the legislation. Murphy was a “No” last time. His vote makes it seven Democrats who voted against the bill last time coming around to voting for it this time.

That means that Democrats could survive a Stupak bloc as big as eight and win this thing, if you do the math.

Ellsworth’s Yes vote is one of the key ones needed by the leadership. That makes it 198-209, 206-212 with leaners. And importantly, under my metrics outlined in a previous post it could make Democrats as close as two votes away from passage.

Nothing looks confirmed at the moment. But the moment House leaders reach agreement with elements of the Stupak bloc is the moment I stop ding whip counts. Because then, health care passes without too much trouble.

And what’s the deal? A future, standalone vote on the Stupak amendment, in the House and the Senate.

Since we’re getting down to the wire on the health care bill, I’m going to start pushing leaners more forcefully. Democrats now need 26 of a combination of the 14 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 22 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 26 out of the remaining uncommitted 36. If you’re counting leaners, Democrats need 14 of the last 22 uncommitted.

That looks like a major departure from my last whip count. That’s because there’s been a major development. House leaders have given up on trying to please Bart Stupak and will try to pass a bill without him and his bloc.