If these races break exactly as PPP polling dictates, the Democratic caucus would be reduced to only 51 members. On the other hand, if the three toss-up races each brake for the Democrat instead of the Republican, the Dem caucus would be down to 54 members–still a substatial margin by historical measures.

The last week of the Senate race in Alaska has been pretty chaotic. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is reportedly going up with last-minute ads, sensing an opportunity. It’s going to be a wild finish.

The Scott McAdams campaign decided Wednesday evening to initially feed the results of the Hays Research poll, the first to show Joe Miller in dead last place, to the blogosphere. Influential Alaska media outlets have openly declared for Lisa Murkowski, and the campaign felt it would be better to give initial spin to new media than to outlets who might spin the poll results adversely to McAdams’ campaign, which gained new wind in its sails Thursday as a result of the fresh breeze.

Joe Miller reversed himself and discussed his background yesterday, acknowledging that he committed ethics violations while working at the Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2008. He used company time and resources to help depose the head of the Alaska GOP.

Alaska artist and political wonk, Tom Begich, was on Moore Up North today. Tom is U.S. Sen. Mark Begich’s brother. Along with brother Dr. Nick Begich, Jr, Tom is far more progressive than Mark. Tom borrowed my classroom blackboard from the University of Alaska Anchorage to illustrate two important things – why Sen. Lisa Murkowski cannot win on November 2nd as a write-in, and how close Scott McAdams may really be.

It sounds like Lisa Murkowski will do every thing she can to remain in the Senate. According to the Anchorage Daily News, indications are that she is prepared to launch a write-in campaign this evening (announcement is expected around 9 p.m. Eastern).

Alaska State representative David Guttenberg (D- 8th District) beat teabagger Joe Miller in 2004. Here’s a bit of his advice to Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, who is tightening the race against Miller:

Polling only eight points down in a Republican state in a Republican year, Alaska is not a bad place to be for no-name Democratic Senate candidate Scott McAdams.

Over 25,000 ballots remain uncounted in the Alaska Republican primary for US Senate, where Tea Party candidate Joe Miller leads Sen. Lisa Murkowski by about 1,688 votes. That makes it at least possible for Murkowski to overtake Miller. Conflicting reports show that those uncounted ballots would either hurt or help Murkowski’s bid, depending on who you believe.