The supposed logic behind the switch to the top-two primary was to get all candidates to run their campaigns, from the start, directed at everyone in the district across the political spectrum, instead of first catering to the small group of primary voters in each party. So, the candidates are basically already running what we would consider big, expensive, general-election-style campaigns for the “primary,” and they will need to sustain this big, general-election-style campaign for the months until the runoff election.
|By: Jon Walker Thursday May 19, 2011 7:57 am|
|By: David Dayen Friday June 4, 2010 3:10 pm|
Bill Halter has maintained a narrow lead over Blanche Lincoln in the R2K/Daily Kos poll, shockingly one of the only pollsters surveying the runoff election. I find it puzzling that almost nobody polled this race leading up to the primary election, and nobody’s wading into it now. It’s a tough race to poll, because there are no restrictions on primary voters, making it tough to model the electorate. However, to vote in the runoff you had to have either voted in the primary on the Democratic side or not voted, cutting out everyone who voted in the Republican primary and at least narrowing things down a bit. Markos says that Halter has kept his lead, but turnout will be the key.
|By: David Dayen Thursday May 27, 2010 12:33 pm|
Lincoln has two problems – she needs to actually attract more Democratic voters, which she has appeared unable to do thus far, and she needs to have motivated supporters turn out for her again, which defies the logic of where the motivated voters are in this primary. If numbers like these persist, I’d guess Lincoln may change her tune on holding another debate. Or maybe she won’t, since Halter destroyed her in the last one.
|By: David Dayen Wednesday May 19, 2010 1:05 pm|
If Blanche Lincoln thinks she can rally in three weeks and win a runoff election against Bill Halter, she simply is blind to the import of what happened last night in the US Senate. The narrative of the race is now about Blanche Lincoln trying to snooker Arkansas voters into thinking she was a crusading Wall Street reformer — but the voters don’t like to be lied to.
|By: David Dayen Thursday May 13, 2010 2:30 pm|
Democrats have two options – give up the charade and change the derivatives piece before June 8, with Lincoln having to suffer the consequences; or leave it intact to do its intended purpose, and actually pass a substantive and wide-ranging change to how Wall Street does its business. I’ll bet lots of people in the Democratic leadership and inside the White House are hoping that Lincoln gets over 50% next Tuesday so they don’t have to make such a determination.