Welcome to part four of FDL’s midterm election night liveblog (here are links to part one, part two and part three). For the most recent list of FDL’s top 108 House races to watch tonight, go here.

Polls are now closed in all states except Hawaii and Alaska. The Democrat loses in the House so far have been huge but Democrats are likely to hold on to the Senate.

Voter turn-out means everything right now; don’t hope Prop 19 passes, help it pass by making calls.

Voting Yes on Proposition 19 should be a no-brainer. Laws banning drugs, especially those that are mostly innocuous, are discriminatory. Legalizing marijuana will help save lives, and put a serious dent in the power of the drug cartels and criminal gangs preying on the defenseless.

With all the entries in Firedoglake’s Election Projection Challenge now in, I decided to see if the aggregate projections of the FDL community can outperform the professional political prognosticators.

Proposition 19, which would legalize and regulate production and distribution of marijuana in California, is trailing slightly in the two most recent polls from Field and PPP. While the polling is still relatively close, this is not a good sign. For Prop 19 to pass, there will need to be a very large turnout among supporters and young voters who are not being included in the pollsters’ “likely voter” models.

Make Your Predictions for
FDL’s 2010 Election Challenge

Use the form below to cast your predictions for the 2010 midterm elections & 112th Congress.

There will be prizes for the winners!

Email

# of seats in House Democratic caucus

Currently 255

# of seats in Senate Democratic caucus

Currently 59

Will Prop 19 pass?

Yes

No

% Yes vote for
Prop 19

%

to the nearest 100th (ex: 5.02%)

All fields required

So, what’s going to happen tomorrow? Will Prop 19 win or lose, will the Democrats keep the Senate, and how many seats will switch parties in the House?

Place your bets now in the FDL Election Projection challenge.

Just three days left til Election Day. If you want Prop 19 to pass, you need to get to the phones. Polls are showing Prop 19 falling among likely voters. If we can make sure new, young voters vote for Prop 19, we’ll overcome the polls at put Prop 19 over the time.

In 1976, Reggae legend Peter Tosh released the song and album “Legalize It,” which quickly became an anthem for the marijuana reform movement. Tosh was murdered in his Jamaica home in 1987, and since that time, his family and his estate have not been in public with Peter’s legacy.

Now, in 2010, the family of Peter Tosh is for the first time coming out and announcing its strong support of California’s Proposition 19 and the Just Say Now Campaign to legalize marijuana nationwide, including the launch of a new video from Peter Tosh’s son Dave, intended to help mobilize voters to go to the polls November 2.

Poll after poll shows Prop 19 will come down to the wire. While polling for ballot initiatives is notoriously difficult – not to mention the possibility of a “Reverse Bradley Effect” – one thing has been clear: Latino voters are some of those most opposed to Prop 19.

In order to try to shore up any support amongst Latino voters in California, Just Say Now is launching a phone bank targeted at possible Latino voters and Spanish speakers, with a Spanish-language script to speak to these voters about voting Yes on Prop 19.

Make Your Predictions for
FDL’s 2010 Election Challenge

Use the form below to cast your predictions for the 2010 midterm elections & 112th Congress.

There will be prizes for the winners!

Email

# of seats in House Democratic caucus

Currently 255

# of seats in Senate Democratic caucus

Currently 59

Will Prop 19 pass?

Yes

No

% Yes vote for
Prop 19

%

to the nearest 100th (ex: 5.02%)

All fields required

FDL will be featuring extensive election night coverage across the country, including the much-anticipated results of Prop 19. And the morning after, everyone will of course be diagnosing “what happened” with 20/20 hindsight. But who really did call the races in advance?

You can place your predictions in the FDL Election Projection Vault (patent pending), which will remain locked until the results are known. So, put on your finest Amazing Kreskin hat, and lay your bets.

Questions:

• How many House seats will Democrats hold in the 112th Congress?
• How many Senate seats will Democrats hold in the 112th Congress?
• Will California’s Proposition 19 pass?

Tiebreaker:

• What will the final percentage be for “Yes” on Prop 19?