There are a couple bellweather races in the Senate (I think North Dakota will show the power of ideology versus candidate competence) and the House (a couple member-versus-member races, like Jim Renacci versus Betty Sutton in Ohio, will be determinative).

But I’m going with Kevin Drum: Prop 30 in California, and the symbolic end to the era of the tax revolt it would usher in, is the most important thing on the ballot this year, to me.