Under the electoral college system, presidential elections are decided on a state by state basis. In a relatively close election it is possible for a candidate to lose the national popular vote but still win the necessary 270 electoral college votes by performing well in and winning just enough swing states. The relative unemployment condition in key swing states could thus provide a narrow opening for Obama to win.

The Washington primary can serve as a useful predictor on a macro level. Partisan swings in the Washington primary vote closely mirrored the national Congressional swings we saw in November.