Late Night: Sam Wang, the KRS-One of Election Prediction

By: Sunday September 21, 2014 8:00 pm

Professor Wang is the KRS-One of election prediction. In a just world, he would have already been allowed to end the careers of the various hacks out there. But since the hacks are getting good money for telling stories their patrons like to hear, the hacks will still be hacking long after the 2014 election is in the can.


In Defense of Repetition in the Media

By: Friday March 14, 2014 11:15 am

Many of our problems aren’t elaborate puzzles that require complex new thinking. They are often simple problems with known solution that need to be repeatedly highlighted until they are adopted. The person who can write arguments for one solution a hundred times while still being interesting can have a much bigger impact than someone who writes about a hundred facts once.

Shutdowns Are Different From Almost Everything Else in Politics

By: Thursday October 17, 2013 1:00 pm

The media lives in a bubble. It also has a bad habit of crying wolf all the time to get attention, but that doesn’t mean that sometimes there aren’t actually wolves there.

The Success of Polling and Nate Silver

By: Tuesday July 23, 2013 10:45 am

Well done, public polling is incredibly accurate. This is why so many organizations engage in polling, this is why polls are often covered by the media, and this is why every serious campaign spends a significant amount of money on internal polling.

It is important to understand that a quality poll will normally do a very good job predicting the outcome to an election. The only thing better than one quality poll is an aggregate of multiple quality polls, that way you can effectively weed out the occasional fluke.

NYT Culture Hate Hate Hated That Gay Math Wizard Guy

By: Monday July 22, 2013 6:30 pm

As you may have heard, Nate Silver, who is the Punxsutawney Phil of electoral prognosticators, emerging from his Fortress of Gay Mathmagic every four years to choose our president for us so that we have more time to devote to eating Hot Pockets, watching reality teevee shows, and developing diabetes foot, has taken leave from the New York Time to join ESPN where he will explain wins against replacement (WAR) and Defense-Independent Component ERA to Skip Bayless until he explodes in a flash of blue smoke that smells like fried Slim Jims.

Nate Silver Rumored for Treasury Secretary or OMB Head

By: Wednesday November 7, 2012 3:14 pm

Rumors are spreading this a.m. that the reality-based number cruncher at the New York Times, Nate Silver, may soon be appointed to a high position in the Obama Administration.**

Michael Gerson Has Trouble With Numbers and Is Jealous of Those Who Don’t

By: Tuesday November 6, 2012 6:15 am

Michael Gerson used his column today to make a bizarre attack on the NYT’s polling analyst Nate Silver.

Nate Silver Is the Lovechild of Harry Potter & Hari Seldon

By: Saturday November 3, 2012 1:18 pm

Internet Magic-Math Wizard Nate Silver currently blesses President Obama with a 83.7 % chance of winning on Tuesday and this distresses Mike Flynn (who writes for Breitbart these days because he was too stupid and sociopathic to continue on at Reason — if that is possible) who thinks that Silver has been intentionally making shit up this election season in an effort to influence the future and keep “leftists” fat, sassy, and to Flynn’s point of view, overconfident.

Come Saturday Morning: Voter Suppression, Mitt-Mentum, Lustful Cockmonsterism, and Other Debunked Concepts

By: Saturday October 27, 2012 6:45 am

PW here with a few choice morsels of news that you’re not likely to find most other places.

Paul Ryan: Almost Famous

By: Sunday August 12, 2012 9:30 am

Want to know what America thinks of vice presidential nominees? Just consider Barry Goldwater’s 1964 choice, William E. Miller. A New York Congressman, Miller was so forgettable that American Express tapped him for one of its first “Do You Know Me?” commercials years later. Cameron Crowe even gave the name William Miller to the protagonist of Almost Famous.

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