The fate of Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana in California, is still very much up in the air. Depending on which most recent polls you look at, the measure is either winning by a few points or losing by a few points. Looking into the crosstabs of the polling on this proposition, it is clear that the success or failure of Prop 19 rides on the ability of its supporters to get out the vote.

The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll (PDF) is really, really bad news for Democrats less than two months out from the election. While Democrats trail Republicans by only two percentage points among registered voters, 45-47, they are losing by 13 points among likely voters.

It appears even an “Obama official” is talking about how marijuana ballot measures might be the Democratic equivalent of gay marriage ban initiatives for Republicans. In 2004, ballot initiatives to ban gay marriage likely increased the conservative vote, helping to elect Republicans.