Republicans have their first Senate pickup of the night. Dan Coats was called the winner of the Indiana Senate race as soon as the polls closed across the state. Coats, a former Senator, will replace Evan Bayh. He defeated Rep. Brad Ellsworth in a race that was basically never in doubt.

This Hail Mary attack by Kentucky’s Democratic Senate candidate Jack Conway has certainly pulled Rand Paul off of his script, and shows the Conway campaign willing to use anything in the fight. I could also see it carrying a potential backlash, however.

If a candidate other than Rand Paul were nominated in Kentucky, given the rightward tilt of the state and the current electoral environment, they would have probably sailed to victory. But Paul’s past statements are really catching up with him and giving Jack Conway an angle to win.

The Senate matchup between Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Rand Paul is very close, with a slight advantage for Paul. A DailyKos/Research 2000 poll has Paul at 44 percent and Conway at 41 percent, with a four percent margin of error. This close race appears winnable for Democrats.

Last night’s interview with Rachel Maddow is what Rand Paul will face for the next six months. And if he continues with these kinds of performances, he’ll show the ugly side of the liberty movement has has cultivated.

The progressive movement showed they can still be a force in elections, if not in governing. Across the country, real Democrats were chosen over corrupt elites or conservative Democrats. This really ends up being a game of inches – but I still believe it matters who gets these politicians into office.

Tuesday was a bad day for Washington establishment candidates and a bad day for conservative Democrats. All three establishment favorites performed poorly in the May 18 elections — and President Obama also fared badly as an endorser.

The biggest day on the primary calendar all year takes place tomorrow, with elections in four states and some of the most interesting storylines of the 2010 campaign. Activists on the left and right have battles against the establishment which will be decided tomorrow, and Democrats and Republicans have the opportunity to declare victories which they will spin into a narrative about November.

Rand Paul has surged from a long-shot insurgent candidate to dominate the polls just days before the May 18 primary. According to a SurveyUSA poll, Paul has a 16-point lead over Trey Grayson (Paul 49 – Grayson 33). Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is strongly backing Grayson, but being the party establishment’s favorite is not the charm in this election cycle.