If the rest of the country looks like Indiana tonight, Democrats might as well just go to bed early and duck.

At the beginning of the day, Democrats held 5 House seats in Indiana, and Republicans held 3. At the moment, Democrats are only ahead in one, the Indianapolis-area seat held by Andre Carson. And even that is only a 53.5-43.2 lead at this point. Baron Hill, Joe Donnelly and Peter Visclosky are all down, though Visclosky’s seat is extremely early and I assume Gary is not in. In addition, the open seat vacated by Brad Ellsworth looks like a Republican win at this point as well.

From Aqua Buddha’s (T-KY) debate last night with Jack Conway.

There is some good news for Democrat Jack Conway. The latest Braun Research/CN2 poll (PDF) of likely voters in Kentucky has him roughly a half-point ahead of his Republican opponent Rand Paul, making the race effectively tied (rounding brings the margin up to a point).

This is a huge improvement compared to the last Braun Research poll (PDF), which found Paul with a ten-point lead over Conway, 41 – 31.

The Senate matchup between Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Rand Paul is very close, with a slight advantage for Paul. A DailyKos/Research 2000 poll has Paul at 44 percent and Conway at 41 percent, with a four percent margin of error. This close race appears winnable for Democrats.

Tuesday was a bad day for Washington establishment candidates and a bad day for conservative Democrats. All three establishment favorites performed poorly in the May 18 elections — and President Obama also fared badly as an endorser.

Tonight is a primary night with elections in Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Arkansas and Oregon.

Rand Paul has surged from a long-shot insurgent candidate to dominate the polls just days before the May 18 primary. According to a SurveyUSA poll, Paul has a 16-point lead over Trey Grayson (Paul 49 – Grayson 33). Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is strongly backing Grayson, but being the party establishment’s favorite is not the charm in this election cycle.

Not yet in the showers, Jim Bunning throws Mitch McConnell a little chin music.

Here’s a round-up of the latest action in Minnesota, Oklahoma, Colorado, Connecticut, Kentucky, Texas, New Mexico, Montana, Maryland and Delaware.