I’m simply not good at predicting these US Senate turnovers on this issue; not quite as good as Chris Cillizza, anyway. He had Tim Johnson listed first, back when there were six. I had thought not running for re-election immunized Johnson from having to take a stand on this issue; Cillizza claimed not having to face South Dakota voters might free him to speak out.

The U.S Senate is scheduled to convene at 11am EST, the House is already in session.

It will be a welcome sight to see an actual cross-examiner in committee hearings, to see Wall Street executives actually grilled by at least one member rather than the love-fests we normally see. Warren has stated that she envisions the Senate as a platform to highlight her views. I can’t think of a better foundation for that platform than the Banking Committee.

The Senate nears a vote on competing tax plans that in large measure will define the election in November. The fact that the two plans happen to have a lot in common will not be heard – they envision the same individual income tax rate for 98% of the country – but you’ll hear plenty about the differences. Vice President Biden did a rare conference call with reporters to highlight them.

Fatster rounds up news articles from July 23, covering stories on US drone strikes, Pakistan, Eypt’s president, German credit ratings, LIBOR bank riggers, Wisconsin’s justice, Jon Kyl’s class, Joe Manchin, Mai Bai is wrong, Hyatt boycott, Sam’s Club, employer-provided insurance, GOP war on women, and much more.

As expected, Republicans filibustered the DISCLOSE Act last night, as the legislation that would have forced disclosure on political campaign expenditures failed 51-44. Republicans who voted all united against the bill, and they were joined by West Virginia’s Joe Manchin, who is sure to have a wide variety of independent expenditure ads funded by secret donors against him in his re-election campaign.

Those who liked yesterday’s 5-4 verdict in NFIB v. Sebelius, the formal name of the Affordable Care Act lawsuit, have made two arguments knocking down concerns that the ruling could have negative ramifications. One of them I completely disagree with, and one I think needs to be looked at a bit differently. I want to take both of them in turn in separate posts. Let’s start with the one where I disagree.

A new poll from the National Journal shows that the principle of raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans by letting the Bush tax cuts expire remains extremely popular, even as some Democrats show trepidation about the idea.

Harry Reid has scheduled a vote on the Blunt amendment, which would allow employers to refuse insurance mandates on virtually any medical service simply by stating a moral objection to the practice, for tomorrow. Reid actually introduced the amendment himself when the Republicans wouldn’t.

Weekly unemployment claims spiked up again today, and the NY Fed’s survey of regional manufacturing, a key indicator of the economy, was down sharply relative to expectations. This is a crisis time in the economy, and big solutions are needed to arrest the slide.