Normally elections are heavily dependent on the state of the economy, and with some people struggling right now with bad economic conditions the outcome of the 2012 election will be determined even more by the state of the economy. I’ve complied this chart from Gallup tracking data that I believe makes it clear how much that President Obama’s fortunes will depend almost exclusively on the state of the economy.

President Obama’s overall job approval numbers, while not great, remain decent in the latest Washington Post poll. The poll found that 44 percent approve of his job performance while 46 percent disapprove. While the total level of support remains little changed, the intensity of that support has dropped significantly.

Currently President Obama’s job approval rating stands at only 40 percent according to the latest Gallup poll. This is the lowest support Gallup has yet found in their polling.

It is another sign Obama’s re-election will hinge almost exclusively the economy.

The most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll (PDF) found that 57 % of Americans based, on their own personal experience, don’t think the economy has began to recover. Only 42 % feeling it has began to recover and among that group 81% feel the recovery has been weak.

The fact that so few Americans actually feel the economy has recovered highlights the point Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg has been making about the serious failure of Obama messaging over the past few years

While we will still need to wait for other major pollsters to weigh in before we know the extent of the bump, this event has at least temporarily improved Obama’s standing with the American people.

President Obama is still relatively popular with younger Americans, but he has a serious political problem with people over 55. Only 39 percent of people in that age group approve of his job performance while 52 percent disapprove.

Over the past 12 days the Gallup daily tracking poll found Obama’s job approval numbers have been net positive every day.

The DNC is out with a new memo (PDF), short and worth reading, making the case that this November will not be as bad as 1994 was for Democrats or 2006 was for Republicans. It is an attempt to dispel the idea Democrats will lose control of the House.