The special election in NY-26, which has been dominated by headlines about the Paul Ryan budget to end Medicare, will end at 9pm ET tonight. Jane Corwin isn’t waiting to take precautions: she’s already got herself a court order barring certification of a winner.

A second poll confirms that Kathy Hochul is likely to win the special election tomorrow in NY-26, an upset pickup in a red district in upstate New York. Like the Siena poll, Public Policy Polling finds that Hochul has increased her lead over Jane Corwin even as third-party candidate Jack Davis drops off.

With all three candidates financially viable, how will the race shake out? The presence of Davis makes it harder to claim that this is a referendum on Medicare privatization. However, I do think you can say what Josh Kraushaar says, that this has refocused attention on the actual desires of Republicans, which are broadly unpopular.