Morgan Stanley continues to predict a weak 1.4% growth for the US in 2013. I assume some of this pessimism has to do with the potential for a nasty fiscal slope. But this forecast mirrors their previous forecast in September, so nothing has changed in their analysis in the two months where policymakers crept closer to the slope. In other words, there’s something more structural at work. You can see that in the sharp pullback in investment at the corporate level
|By: David Dayen Monday November 19, 2012 9:15 am|
Existing-home sales rose 2.1% in October, with the number coming in slightly above expectations, although the previous month’s numbers were revised down. Inventory has decreased 21% year-over-year (in no small part due to structural factors like trapped borrowers not putting their houses on the market, as well as artificial constraints on supply from banks keeping homes off the market).
|By: David Dayen Sunday November 11, 2012 8:45 am|
Of all the thumbsuckers about the second-term Obama agenda I’ve read, the ones that reflect the least contact with reality concern Administration housing policy.
It’s beyond clear that the first-term policy framework sought to protect banks and allocate losses from the collapse of the housing bubble elsewhere. That was the point behind HAMP, designed to “foam the runway” for the banks, allowing them to squeeze out a few extra payments from borrowers and absorb foreclosures more slowly. That was the point behind the foreclosure fraud settlement, reacting to the largest consumer fraud in the history of the world by immunizing the conduct in exchange for a pittance of a fine. That was the point behind a financial fraud task force that turned up precious little financial fraud and sought criminal prosecutions of no individual.
|By: David Dayen Thursday October 25, 2012 10:56 am|
Gallup has a critical poll out today that makes no mention of Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, but tells us something about the economy.
|By: David Dayen Thursday October 25, 2012 7:36 am|
“Why should we bail out the loser’s mortgages,” Rick Santelli yelled in his proto-Tea Party rant. And ever since, practically everyone in Washington has taken care to say that homeowner relief should only be available for “responsible” homeowners, as if there’s a formula to decide whether someone ripped off by a predatory lender is “responsible” or not.
But there’s actually a good answer for why you want to bail out “the loser’s mortgages,” and it’s rooted in basic economics.
|By: David Dayen Wednesday October 24, 2012 2:00 pm|
In one of the more cynical campaign promises I’ve seen in a while, the Obama Administration has apparently been running around to housing advocates telling them they will fire Ed DeMarco as head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency… after the election.
|By: David Dayen Monday October 22, 2012 2:00 pm|
Mike Konczal decided to do some sorely missed actual reporting at last week’s debate, seeking out Glenn Hubbard, one of Mitt Romney’s key economic advisers, for a discussion on housing policy.
|By: David Dayen Friday October 19, 2012 10:10 am|
Zeke Miller of Buzzfeed highlights this new wrinkle in President Obama’s stump speech: taking credit for some good economic numbers of late.
|By: David Dayen Friday October 19, 2012 6:45 am|
President Obama appeared on the Daily Show last night, and Jon Stewart confronted him with the “H” word. It’s not one that comes up much in Obama’s presence; I can’t remember the last time, in fact. But last night, he had to answer for HAMP.
|By: David Dayen Wednesday October 17, 2012 12:00 pm|
The big news in housing today is that residential construction jumped above expectations in September. Housing starts rose 15% month-to-month, and permits for new construction increased 11%. Year over year, starts are over 30% up, while permits are nearly 45% up.