I’ve previously posted on my research showing a very high correlation between the results in Washington State’s “top two” primary and the results in the general election. The system makes the “primary” more like the first round of the general election in a traditional runoff election system. Washington has a history of very high primary turnout–this year it was 40.63 percent–and because of the previous use of the “blanket primary,” voting for members of both parties in the primary was common. Assuming this correlation holds up this year, my analysis points to an extremely bad November for Democrats.

According to a new Pew Research poll (PDF) of registered voters in the upcoming congressional election, 45 percent are leaning Democratic while 44 percent are leaning Republican. This does not bode well for Democrats, since they need to be have a significant lead in the generic ballot if they hope to hold onto their large majorities in the House and Senate. At the same time, these numbers don’t point to a massive Republican wave. By comparison, at about this same time in 2006, Democrats led Republicans 50 percent to 39 percent.

Voters have every reason to despise their current members of Congress. We have nearly 10 percent unemployment, no economic turnaround in sight, an overwhelming feeling that Washington is filled with corruption to benefit Wall Street at the expense of regular people, and a Senate stuck in endless gridlock, incapable of passing simple laws to help people.

This November, especially because of how districts are gerrymandered, Republicans could win what is declared an overwhelming victory, a net gain of 30 or more seats, even though Democrats receive more total votes for Congress than Republicans.

Democrats are suffering from a dangerous enthusiasm gap. On the generic ballot, Democrats are currently tied with Republicans for the 2010 midterm election at 44 percent each, according to the new NBC/WSJ poll. That’s bad news for Democrats, given that they are holding several Republican-leaning seats and suffer a built-in disadvantage based on the layout of Congressional districts.

While political reporting is often focused on tracking polls, fund-raising, and public scandals, the election is often decided by more important macro factors, like the health of the economy.