I don’t have a heck of a lot to say about this election. If you have enough historical confidence in polling and aggregation you know already that the popular vote will be close and the President will win re-election with something in the 294-332 electoral vote range (I’m taking 303, and I think he’ll actually [...]
|By: David Dayen Tuesday November 6, 2012 11:00 am|
|By: David Dayen Monday November 5, 2012 1:00 pm|
Large states like California, New York and Texas were swing states as recently as 30 years ago. Now, the self-sorting of the electorate into coastal and interior enclaves means that the states that “matter” have condensed.
|By: David Dayen Friday November 2, 2012 11:57 am|
Implicit in Mitt Romney’s closing argument for the election is the idea that only he can stop House Republicans from destroying the economy.
|By: David Dayen Friday November 2, 2012 9:45 am|
We’re four days out from an election, and four days behind a hurricane that smashed into the Northeast. Millions of homes remain without power, though it’s slowly coming back online. Minds are focused on rescue and recovery. How exactly will this region shift into an election footing next Tuesday?
The first question concerns the logistical aspects. Brad Friedman credibly connects the multitude of power outages to the fact that electronic voting machines require, you know, power.
|By: David Dayen Thursday November 1, 2012 7:53 am|
I’m skeptical that monthly job reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics move voters in any way. People live in the real economy, and they’ve already made up their minds about it. Nevertheless, tomorrow’s jobs report, which despite Hurricane Sandy will arrive on schedule, will no doubt get hyped as TEH MOST IMPORTANT JOBS REPORT EVAH, and at least provide talking points for the campaign trail (which restarts in earnest today).
So what should we expect?
|By: David Dayen Tuesday October 30, 2012 7:12 pm|
Mitt Romney’s latest play for Ohio – which remains the touchstone of the entire election, desperate plays for Minnesota and Pennsylvania aside – apparently involves straight-up lying about the intentions of Chrysler to “build Jeeps in China,” to the extent that Jeep factory employees are calling their managers wondering if they still have a job.
|By: David Dayen Monday October 29, 2012 2:30 pm|
Chris Hayes had the most thoughtful discussionof the National Popular Vote I’ve ever seen on cable television yesterday. Every so often, it’s worth pointing out that it’s entirely unnatural to run a national political campaign through a handful of boroughs and counties in at most 9 out of the 50 states, which leads to highlighting a mish-mash of local issues as if they were the most vital and critical national issues.
|By: David Dayen Monday October 29, 2012 11:15 am|
The Romney campaign responded to Ryan Grim, who dug this up, by saying that “Gov. Romney wants to ensure states, who are the first responders and are in the best position to aid impacted individuals and communities, have the resources and assistance they need to cope with natural disasters.” But that requires a federal response, or else you have the death spiral I previously described, where emergency response must get paid for by taking money out of other areas of the state budget. That’s if primary Romney doesn’t get his greatest wish, to privatize disaster response.
|By: David Dayen Thursday October 25, 2012 2:20 pm|
Whether you think that Democrats lost the House and a majority of state legislatures in 2010 because of a lack of improvement in the economy, the natural cycle of out-party gains in a midterm election, the clever use of Republican obstructionism to dampen economic performance, those damn liberals who didn’t clap loudly enough, or whatever, you cannot deny the lasting impact of that massive thumping. The Brennan Center has a report out today about post-2010 redistricting, and how it has tilted the map in favor of Republican control that may last regardless of the mood of the nation.
|By: David Dayen Tuesday October 23, 2012 9:10 am|
While Mitt Romney hid behind Barack Obama and displayed about as much independent thought as a college student who didn’t cram enough the night before the test and spent the whole time looking at his neighbor’s paper, his neighbor Barack Obama reflected so strongly the smoldering wreck that is this nation’s foreign policy consensus.