In the dysfunctional health insurance market, high-cost does not equal high-value; and it is not comprehensiveness of coverage that is the primary predictor of who will be affected by the excise tax, rather it is the size of the firm they work for or the age of their co-workers. The fact that Chevy plans are about as likely to be taxed as Cadillac plans is one reason to be cautious about relying on such a tax.

In employer surveys, between 9 and 16% said they would not pass on any savings to employees–a key assumption behind the Senate’s Cadillac tax. So not only will that tax make employees’ health care worse, but the tax won’t raise the revenue the government claims it will.

  An excise tax on high-end health insurance benefits is an extremely regressive tax on the middle class. Even though Ezra Klein claims this tax is progressive, it is not. It would raise relatively little money from the wealthy.   It is true that the bottom 30% is unlikely to pay very much of the [...]