If the rest of the country looks like Indiana tonight, Democrats might as well just go to bed early and duck.

At the beginning of the day, Democrats held 5 House seats in Indiana, and Republicans held 3. At the moment, Democrats are only ahead in one, the Indianapolis-area seat held by Andre Carson. And even that is only a 53.5-43.2 lead at this point. Baron Hill, Joe Donnelly and Peter Visclosky are all down, though Visclosky’s seat is extremely early and I assume Gary is not in. In addition, the open seat vacated by Brad Ellsworth looks like a Republican win at this point as well.

Ellsworth’s Yes vote is one of the key ones needed by the leadership. That makes it 198-209, 206-212 with leaners. And importantly, under my metrics outlined in a previous post it could make Democrats as close as two votes away from passage.

CQ Politics is reporting that the House of Representatives will vote on Saturday [Update: vote now confirmed for 6pm EST, Saturday, 11/7] on a health care bill which includes new language on abortion services coverage, but which would not go nearly as far as the language sought by Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI), which would have effectively banned all insurance coverage for abortion services in the individual and small group market.