I’ve seen a spate of stories recently suggesting that a economic recovery is fated to happen by 2013, and whoever wins the Presidential election will be able to claim the mantle of the “recovery President.” This is far too deterministic a take for me. There is such a thing as a business cycle, but to suggest that national policy cannot dislodge it ignores recent history and the candidates’ budget plans.

France and Germany have reached agreement on a fiscal plan for Europe that has everything to do with veto power for the European Commission over sovereign budgets and very little to do with the long-term problem of smoothing growth over 17 different countries operating under one monetary union.

Rick Perry says the tax code is a mess, riddled with problems and is unsustainable. So his solution is to offer a choice between his “flat tax” and the current code. Wonder what rich people will choose?

This is that famous pivot we’ve been hearing so much about, the one that has been attempted at least seven other times by the Administration. Remember that the end of the health care bill was supposed to precipitate a pivot to jobs. Then the end of Dodd-Frank would do the same. And so on.

But this underestimates the malign forces who don’t want to pivot, who want to remain right in the muck of austerity for as long as possible.

The amendment for the Boehner bill, which yokes a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution to the passage of a second round of debt limit increase, is available here. It’s just a page long – the BBA is the only change. The Pell grant stuff was just grumbling.

There have been no formal talks between the President and Congressional leaders for the last three days about raising the nation’s debt limit (though there has been “activity and progress” according to OMB Director Jack Lew), but the endgame is nonetheless coming into focus.

Pelosi says she would have Democrats step in if Boehner fails to find 218 votes today. And this actually sets up the next fight. Boehner can then go to negotiations with his concern about the more right-leaning elements of his caucus, saying that many of them bolted on the 2011 budget bill and that many more will do the same on the debt limit vote without concessions. It’s a calculated tactic.