These are the best job approval ratings for Obama since early May, following the killing of Osama Bin Laden. This also represents a huge improvement since the beginning of autumn when Obama’s numbers slipped into sharply negative territory.

The primary source of this solid turnout for Obama is clearly the improving opinions about the economy, not the result of any rhetorical shift. The official unemployment rate is down noticeably since the summer and the four week moving average for initial unemployment claims is the lowest it has been since 2008. This news has caused a steady, and substantial, improvement in economic optimism. The Gallup economic confidence index experienced a significant steady improvement since it low last Summer.

Even more impressive has been the recent huge swing in economic outlook found by Pew Research. For the first since early 2010 a plurality of the country, 44 percent, thinks the economic will be better in a year.

As long as the economy seems to be improving, people are far more likely to think, rightly or wrongly, that Obama is making smart economic decisions. Similarly people become more willing to give him a pass on the smaller actions they don’t agree with or to forgive his past mistakes as long as they see the country as a whole improving.

If these economic trends keep up, Obama’s job approval number should break 50 percent and he will be in good shape come November. On the other hand, if the economy experiences another dip like last summer expect people to again judge his performance very harshly.

I want you to want me.
I need you to need me.
I’d love you to love me.
I’m beggin’ you to beg me.

-Rick Nielsen

Novelty candidate and has-been reality show contestant Sarah Palin always said that if she were going to run for Super Ultra Max Queen of Real America she would run an unconventional campaign, and now that the Republican clown car is stalling on a hill, she’s come out of her Arizona Meth Castle and is helping by pouring some of that sweet sugar of hers in the gas tank:

Former Republican Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin said Wednesday that a brokered Republican presidential convention was a possibility and that if it happened she “would do whatever I could to help.”

“If one of the nominees, one of the GOPers, doesn’t get enough delegates, it could go to a brokered convention,” said Fox Business Network’s Eric Bolling in an interview. “If it does get to that, and someone said, ‘Governor, would you be interested,’ would you be interested?”

“For one, I think that it could get to that. … If it had to be closed up today, the whole nominating process, then we could be looking at a brokered convention. … Nobody is quite there yet, so I think that months from now, if that is the case, all bets are off as to who it will be, willing to offer up themselves up in their name in service to their country.”

“I would do whatever I could to help,” she added, her voice rising.

Which was pretty much her plan all along. This way she didn’t have to do the hard stuff like campaignin’ and debatin’ and other ‘g droppin’ stuff that looks like work which isn’t surprising as it was foretold in the Book of TBogg 8:10. Now she wants to Rosie Ruiz herself into the Republican race and, who knows, maybe they’ll go for it. Tebow knows the other choices on Republican menu aren’t too appetizing and it is getting near closing time, so the cougar sucking down Harvey Wallbangers at the end of the bar might be looking better and better.

In the immortal words of Gary Larson …

(photo: markn3tel/flickr)

Rick Santorum currently holds a solid lead in the upcoming Michigan primary according to four recent polls of the state. In the polls, the Santorum lead over Mitt Romney ranges from 3-10 points. From the Detroit News poll:

Santorum leads Romney 34 percent to 30.4 percent among likely Republican primary voters, but the gap is within the margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich had support from 11.6 percent of respondents, former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul had 8.9 percent and 12.4 percent was undecided.

From the Mitchell/Rosetta Stone poll:

Rick Santorum has jumped into the lead in a Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll of Michigan conducted for MIRS (Michigan Information & Research Service). Santorum (34%) has a 9% lead over Mitt Romney (25%) while Ron Paul (11%) and Newt Gingrich (5%) are far behind in a trial Republican presidential ballot test. A quarter of the voters remain undecided (25%). Just twelve days ago, before Santorums victories in Minnesota, Missouri, and Colorado on February 7th, Romney (31%) held a 15% lead over Newt Gingrich (16%) with Santorum (15%) and Paul (15%) right behind. Four percent said they were voting for someone else and 19% were undecided in the earlier survey.

From Rasmussen Reports:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan shows Santorum with 35% of the vote to Romney’s 32%. Well behind are Texas Congressman Ron Paul with 13% and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 11%. Only one percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, while eight percent (8%) are undecided.

From Inside Michigan Politics/MRG poll:

In the presidential primary ballot test, Santorum received 43 percent to Romney’s 33 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich at 11 percent, and Ron Paul at 8 percent.

A loss in the Michigan primary for Romney would be a real setback for his campaign and a significant embarrassment given that it is one of Romney’s home states. Santorum is still riding high off his triple win earlier this month. The primaries in Michigan and Arizona on February 28th are probably Romney’s best chance to stop Santorum’s momentum before Super Tuesday. If Santorum does win Michigan and can carry that momentum into a decent showing on Super Tuesday, the nomination fight would probably continue for months.

pic via kevinpoh at flickr.com

Surely the best plan possible for getting money out of a country deep in debt is to make sure it makes no money:

“On the current path – which is not sustainable in my view – we may very well see Greek GDP go down 25-30 percent, which would be historically unprecedented. It’s a disastrous crisis for them,” Dadush, a former senior World Bank official, said.

And in order to make sure banks bail out banks, the people will suffer:

For ordinary Greeks, the outlook is dire. Some civil servants have seen their salaries cut by half. Retirement before the age of 65 is a fading dream for those still in work. Some drugs are now in short supply.

About the only thing collapsing faster than Greece’s economy are the popularity ratings of Republican candidates. In fact they are cratering so fast, it may lead to the most renowned of the previously collapsed getting  involved, that’s right Sarah Palin says she’s ready to answer the call of the wild if it’s made at a brokered convention.

Opa!

Elizabeth Warren continues to lead Scott Brown (photo via wikimedia)

The Senate map for 2012 is just inherently awful for Democrats. They have to defend incumbents in 23 states, while the Republicans only need to defend 10. Even if there is a relatively strong national Democratic turnout in 2012, the party will likely still have a net loss of Senate seats.

With that factored in, though, the prospects for the Democrats at least narrowly holding on to the chamber have been improving.

New polling in three potential competitive Senate races, Massachusetts, Ohio, and Michigan, has all been relatively positive for Democrats.

Massachusetts – A new WBUR poll has Democrat Elizabeth Warren with a three point lead over incumbent Republican Scott Brown, Warren 46 percent to Brown 43 percent. For an incumbent to be trailing (and below 50 percent) this early is a very bad sign. Massachusetts is one of the Democrats’ only pickup opportunities this cycle and will likely be needed to offset almost assured loses elsewhere.

Michigan – Incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow now has a 14 point lead over potential Republican rival Pete Hoekstra. This is a huge improvement from earlier in the year; also important, Stabenow is polling at least 50 percent in potential matchups. From PPP:

Debbie Stabenow’s taken her biggest lead yet in 4 polls of the Michigan Senate race PPP has conducted dating back to December of 2010. She now leads Pete Hoekstra by 14 points, 51-37, and has an even wider 17 point advantage over Clark Durant at 50-33. In 3 previous polls Stabenow led Hoekstra by an average of just 7 points and on the most recent one, in July, her lead was 9.

What’s interesting is that Stabenow’s approval numbers have barely budged at all over the last 6 months. Over the summer we found her at 46/40, and now she’s at 47/41.  But Hoekstra’s numbers have taken a turn for the worst.  In July his favorability was narrowly positive at 31/30. Now he’s dropped a net 11 points to a -10 spread at 28/38. There hasn’t been a big shift in his numbers with Democrats or Republicans but with independents his numbers have flipped from +10 (33/23) to -10 (29/39).

Ohio – Ohio incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown hasn’t seen his numbers improving, but he is still holding a steady, significant lead in polling. According to Quinnipiac polling Brown leads Republican Josh Mandel 48 percent to 35 percent. This roughly 12 point lead is basically unchanged since last summer. Brown’s favorable numbers are also steady, 41 percent favorable to 46 percent unfavorable.

There was a time earlier last year when it looked like Democrats could be heading towards very big loses in the Senate this year. A net loss of half a dozen or more seats seemed possible. With both the economy and President Obama’s polling showing signs of modest but steady improvement in the past few months, there are now signs the Democrats could narrowly hold on to the Senate in spite of how unfavorable the Senate map is. It is still very early in the season, but things are looking less gloomy for Senate Democrats.

pic by Lawrence OP at flickr.com

A whole lot of carts are getting put before the horse in the Romney campaign — but their aspirations are as uninspiring as their candidate:

Another Romney adviser said the governor would spend just enough time on social issues to dispatch Santorum and then move on.

“He’s going to pivot back,” the adviser said. “He’s not going to go far from the core set of Romney issues, which is economic turnaround, recovery, jobs.”

Mitt wants to get off the pill as soon as possible.

Good luck getting Pandora’s box closed (Pandora can’t afford contraceptives):

Catholic bishops, energized by a battle over contraception funding, are planning an aggressive campaign to rally Americans against a long list of government measures which they say intrude on religious liberty…they are aiming higher still, lobbying Congress to enact a law that would let any employer opt out of covering any medical treatment he disagreed with as a matter of his personal faith.

Note the story’s use of the masculine pronoun.

Maybe Obama did give them the inch upon which they’ll demand a mile — but only one candidate is going to be pressured to buy all that nonsense hook, line and “sinking”. Congratulations Willard — if you make it that far, you get to argue in favor of denying vaccinations and surgery on an employer’s religious grounds.

Tomorrow, the Republicans controlling the Minnesota State Legislature will be voting behind closed doors on whether to put an ALEC-assisted measure on this November’s ballot that will effectively strip the right to vote from tens if not hundreds of thousands of Minnesotans.

The Minnesota Senate’s Local Government and Elections Committee will meet in Room 15 in the State Capitol in Saint Paul, in a conclave closed to the public, to decide whether to put a “Voter ID” voter-suppression amendment measure on the 2012 ballot. Public pressure is building against it, which is why there is such a rush to get this out of committee.

This amendment is being pushed because last year, Governor Dayton vetoed an effort to make it law and the Republicans didn’t have the votes to override his veto. If the committee agrees to it, it will then be voted on by the Minnesota House and Senate, which are likely to pass it unless they’re stopped somehow. The ballot measure cannot be stopped by a veto.

Here is what this measure will do if it becomes part of Minnesota’s constitution:

The Voter ID Amendment as proposed would: END ABSENTEE VOTING AND SAME-DAY VOTER REGISTRATION AS WE KNOW IT.

DENY THE VOTE TO OUR TROOPS. Military IDS are not valid according to the proposed voter ID policy; active-duty servicemembers defending our constitutional right to vote overseas may not be able to vote themselves.

PREVENT BALLOT ACCESS FOR MINNESOTANS WITHOUT A CURRENT ADDRESS ON THEIR ID. It is estimated that as many as one in 10 eligible voters in America do NOT have the kind of photo ID the amendment would require. That’s hundreds of thousands of voting-age Minnesotans who could be prevented from voting by this radical amendment:

18 percent of elderly citizens do not have a government-issued photo ID.
15 percent of people earning less than $35,000 a year do not have a photo ID.
18 percent of citizens aged 18-24 do not have a government-issued photo ID with their current name and address.
10 percent of voters with disabilities do not have a photo ID.
25 percent of voting-age African-American citizens do not have a current, government-issued photo ID.

According to the Secretary of State’s office, the proposed photo ID amendment would affect more than 700,000 Minnesota voters. 215,000 registered voters who do not have a Minnesota drivers’ license or ID card with a CURRENT address on it, and another 500,000 eligible voters who use Election-Day registration.

Worse yet, the measure, touted by Republicans and their ALEC partners as an anti-fraud tool, is utterly useless at stopping most possible forms of fraud. ALEC-inspired “Voter ID” laws only prevent voter impersonation, a crime for which nobody has ever been convicted in Minnesota. (The Minnesota chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union has a standing $1000 prize to anyone who can find a single case of voter fraud in the past ten years that this amendment would have stopped. So far, there are no takers.) It’s also very restrictive, moreso even than the South Carolina law that was recently struck down by the Department of Justice.

Why are the Republicans nationwide pushing these laws? To make it harder for anyone they think might vote for Democrats to actually vote. It’s as simple as that.

Go to http://www.ourvoicescountmn.org for more information. If you have friends in Minnesota, tell them about this. The votes they save may be their own.

Santorum now tied with Romney (photo: Talk Radio News/flickr)

Since Rick Santorum’s triple win last week the state of the Republican primary has changed dramatically. In the past 24 hours four major national polls have found Rick Santorum slightly leading or effectively tied with Mitt Romney. In addition the polls found Newt Gingrich’s support has falling significantly since his January peak.

CNN/ORC International:
Rick Santorum 34
Mitt Romney 32
Ron Paul 16
Newt Gingrich 15

CBS News/New York Times:
Rick Santorum 30
Mitt Romney 27
Ron Paul 12
Newt Gingrich 10

Gallup daily tracking poll:
Mitt Romney 32
Rick Santorum 30
Newt Gingrich 16
Ron Paul 8

Pew Research:
Rick Santorum 30
Mitt Romney 28
Newt Gingrich 17
Ron Paul 12

Santorum has experienced a huge national surge that has put him even or slightly ahead of Romney. In this erratic GOP primary almost every single candidate has had a chance to be the anti-Romney alternative, and some candidates had multiple chances.

While the Republican party will likely rally behind whomever their nominee is, the fact that the base has seriously entertained almost every possible alternative to Romney simply can’t be a reassuring sign for enthusiasm in the general if Romney eventual wins the nomination.

Santorum is beating Romney, because he is now doing much better among more conservative voting groups. Santorum has a double digit lead among Tea Party supporters (42% Santorum – 23% Romney) and White Evangelicals (41% Santorum – 23% Romney).

Besides showing him with the national lead, the poll’s other piece of relatively good news for Santorum is that Romney does only slightly better than Santorum in a theoretical general election match up with Obama. Romney performs only two points better in the general. From Pew:

Obama leads Santorum by 10 points among all registered voters (53% to 43%) and his lead over Romney is nearly as large (52% to 44%). Romney ran about even with Obama in November and mid-January. Obama has a larger advantage over Newt Gingrich than over Santorum or Romney: Obama leads the former House speaker by 18 points (57% to 39%). Obama has made gains among independent voters. Today, 51% of independents favor Obama in a matchup against Romney, up from 40% a month ago.

Electability has always been a main selling point for Mitt Romney’s campaign. Against someone like Newt Gingrich, who has serious national imagine problems, the Romney campaign could easily make the argument to the base that nominating Gingrich would cost the GOP its one chance to beat Obama. With Romney only doing marginally better than Santorum in national polling, the electability argument becomes much hard for Romney’s campaign to make against Santorum.

Rick Santorum's recent wins help give him a lead in Michigan

Rick Santorum’s surprise triple win last week in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri has proven to be an amazing shot in the arm to his campaign. His polling numbers have skyrocketed both nationally and in the upcoming primary states.

In Gallup’s daily tracking poll Santorum’s support jumped from 16 percent before those three events to 27 percent yesterday. Similarly Santorum is surging in Michigan, where according to PPP he now holds a 15 point lead over Mitt Romney. From PPP:

Rick Santorum’s taken a large lead in Michigan’s upcoming Republican primary. He’s at 39% to 24% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Ron Paul, and 11% for Newt Gingrich.

Santorum’s rise is attributable to two major factors: his own personal popularity (a stellar 67/23 favorability) and GOP voters increasingly souring on Gingrich.  Santorum’s becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support.

Santorum’s winning an outright majority of the Tea Party vote with 53% to 22% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich. He comes close to one with Evangelicals as well at 48% to 20% for Romney and 12% for Gingrich. And he cracks the 50% line with voters identifying as ‘very conservative’ at 51% to 20% for Romney and 10% for Gingrich.

In 2008 Mitt Romney won Michigan with 39 percent, beating John McCain’s 30 percent. A Romney loss in Michigan at the end of the month would prove very embarrassing to the Romney campaign and cause him to struggle to regain momentum before Super Tuesday.

Of course two weeks is an eternity in this crazy GOP primary, which has been characterized by rapid erratic swings. Plenty could change before the 28th.  This is a solid start for Santorum in Michigan, but what is important is how well his lead holds up once the much better funded Romney campaign and associated SuperPACs start flooding the state with campaign ads.