Kennedy–How is She the Frontrunner?

Soooo, now we know why Republican Peter King was salivating over the idea of Caroline Kennedy getting appointed to the Senate. It turns out, that’s his best scenario for getting elected to the seat himself in 2010.

A new poll shows that in a head to head match up with Pete King, Caroline Kennedy is within the margin of error (46 Kennedy/44 King) but Andy Coumo trounces King (48 Coumo/29 King). Ouch!

That being said I would be curious to see how the other contenders such as Maloney, Gillibrand, Suozzi and recently Liz Holtzman match up against King. I would also be curious about who is the stimulus behind such selective polling???

You see, appointing Andy creates problems of its own for Paterson, because then there would have to be an appointment to fill Cuomo’s vacancy as NYS AG.  Pursuant to NYS Public Offiers Law § 41 :

When a vacancy occurs or exists, other than by removal, in the office of comptroller or attorney-general, or a resignation of either such officer to take effect at any future day shall have been made while the legislature is in session, the two houses thereof, by joint ballot, shall appoint a person to fill such actual or prospective vacancy.

There is currently a crisis in the NYS Senate because, although the Dems recently elected a majority in that house, renegade Dem State Senators are refusing to elect a Dem Majority Leader. Apparently no one has a majority. That means that NYS Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, who has de facto control of his house will decide who the next NYS AG is. Leaving Paterson with a wild card on his currently very winning re-election ticket.

If I’m Paterson — which I’m not — I would want to keep Andy Cuomo and his lovely poll numbers on my re-election ticket. I would not count out Tom Suozzi. He lives in Pete King’s Congressional district and has large vote stronghold in Glen Cove. If he wanted to cut King off at the knees in advance of 2012, all he would have to do is campaign VERY HARD for a Dem to unseat King from the Congressional seat. A humiliation like that would dry up King’s money and support for a statewide race.

Plus, Suozzi had a good upstate organization during his primary run for Governor and has earned his upstate chops then and much more recently as Chair of the Governor’s Task Force on property taxes. Suozzi has good upstate credentials and can raise serious money outside of his own county.

Liz Holztman threw her hat into the senatorial appointment ring earlier today. I think this dilutes both Gillibrand and Maloney’s chances in terms of the gender card. Gillibrand’s district has lots of Republicans, and if she leaves the seat it will likely revert GOP. Further, she is supposed to have a 100% rating from the NRA and the bloom seems to be off the rose between her and progressives. Maloney was trying to play the gender card, but Holtzman’s got much more serious chops with feminist organizations and has had two statewide races under her belt. This is a tough break for Maloney.

So, I wonder how our hero Jerry Nadler polls against King? I know Jerry would just slaughter him in a debate, but I would love it (hint hint polling people) if somebody would do a head to head poll between Jerry and Pete.

So, to quote Gov. Paterson on Kennedy "How is she the frontrunner?"

Related posts:

1. For Massachusetts, Kennedy: A Way to Shorten the Representation Gap… Maybe
2. The Wind and the Lion: Ted Kennedy Mans Up to Mortality
3. Gov. Patrick Names Paul Kirk to Replace Late Kennedy in Senate
4. Remembering Ted Kennedy: How a 1968 Speech Comforted an 8 Year-Old
5. Health Care Bill After Kennedy: What Happens Now?