Why Obama Can’t Do As Well As Generic Democrat

Obama vs. McCain

Rob Arena over at AmericaBlog has an excellent summary of what polling is telling us about where Obama vs. McCain is, and it’s nowhere where it should be.

1) John McCain has better control of his base than Obama, which is ridiculous. In addition 28% of Clinton voters aren’t in Barack’s column. This is what running to the center before you’ve secured your base gets you. The moral and political imbecility of FISA and other right wing pandering is that base voters are easier to get than the voters in the vanishing "center".

2) Because Obama refuses to go hard negative, and because he believes in submarine advertising rather than national advertising, he loses the spin cycle more often than he wins it. Earned media dwarfs any and all channels that any campaign controls.

3) As a result, John McCain is defining Obama rather than Obama defining Obama. John McCain is also defining John McCain.

In August, running 3 percent ahead, when generic democrat is 10% to 12% ahead, is absolutely pathetic and should be a huge warning sign.

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