Will Hillary’s Latino Advantage Matter In Texas?

Some inside baseball stuff on the Texas’ complex primary system:

What many Democrats might not realize, however, is that only three-fourths of the delegates (126) and alternates who will go to the National Democratic Convention will be chosen according to the state’s popular vote results.

Texas’ delegation will also include 35 unpledged elected officials who may vote for whomever.

The rest will be pledged to specific candidates, but they will be chosen from party and elected officials. Except for the unpledged delegates, the rest will be picked through a three-step process that starts with precinct conventions held at voting precincts after the polls close.

Attendees sign in according to presidential preference, or as unpledged, and their numbers will determine how many delegates each candidate gets at county or senate-district conventions, where delegates to the state convention are chosen in the same manner.

The state convention will actually pick the pledged delegates that attend the national convention, 126 of whom will be chosen from those picked by their senatorial district conventions.

And here’s where it gets really, really, really complicated:

How many of the 126 each senate district gets, however, is determined by complex formulae that reward high turnouts of Democrats in the last two elections. And because the six most-heavily Latino senatorial districts have recorded such low turnouts, each will get only three or four national delegates.

Because turnout is much higher in Texas’ two most heavily African American districts, in Austin’s District 14, and in District 25, one district will get eight national delegates, one will get seven, and two will get six nominating delegates each.

Bottom line: the way Texas assigns delegates might be working against HRC’s demographic strengths.

From my vantage point in Austin, though, I can tell you the Clintons’ arrival in Texas has been splashy. They’re getting lots of media coverage and I’m seeing HRC spots in heavy rotation. I haven’t seen a single Obama spot, but I’m sure they’re coming. When Obama spoke in Austin last February, he drew 20,000.

It’s on.

As a Democrat and political junkie in a state that normally isn’t in play, I’m psyched.

In your face Iowa!

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