Come Saturday Morning: Once More Into The Breach

Some thoughts on the aftermath of the Iowa caucuses:

• The Dems just kicked butt WRT turnout, something that’s not been common in Democratic primaries over the years. They outdrew the GOP by nearly two to one — in fact, all three Democratic front-runners, Obama, Edwards and Clinton, garnered more votes from their caucus-goers than Mike Huckabee, the GOP winner, got from his.

• Hillary spent as much as Obama and three times as much as Edwards, yet not only did she NOT win, she lost to both Obama and Edwards. So much for her inevitable nomination! It’s a horse race now, in case it wasn’t obvious before. In fact, if there’s any inevitability in this race, it’s likely resting with Obama, as the front-loaded primary schedule (which former DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe championed as a way to save the Democratic candidates money in the days when the GOP’s K Street Project still had a stranglehold on big-money donations), which has been exacerbated by the rush towards early primaries, means that Iowa’s importance has been increased — and in 2004, it was very important indeed. Chris Bowers used data from the 1988 and 2004 caucuses, the two most recent ones where Iowa was hotly contested, and found that on average the winner of the Iowa caucus got a 14.5% bump in New Hampshire, whereas the second-place finisher averaged a 3.2% bump and the third-place finished got penalized 3.5%.

• The GOP base in Iowa is loaded up with Fundies and other social conservatives, and they’re somewhat suspicious of East Coast guys: Not only did Mike Huckabee easily stomp Mitt "Five Golden Plates" Romney, but Ron Paul beat Rudy "9/11! 9/11! Fear Fear Fear!" Giuliani like a gong.

• Hillary is going to have to step it up several notches and go into full-bore Deathmatch mode against Obama. She can’t afford to settle for even second place now in New Hampshire or the whispers about her campaign’s viability will turn into shouts. The problem with this for her is that she runs the risk of triggering a mutual suicide pact between her and Barack, similar to what Dean and Gephardt got bogged down in during the run-up to Iowa in December 2003. In a scenario like this, Edwards gets to play the John Kerry "last man standing" role — and there’s not much that Hillary could do about it, as she has to concentrate her firepower on Obama and Obama alone.

So what are your thoughts on Iowa, New Hampshire, or anything else on your mind this fine sunny Saturday morning?

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