So, as you may have read hereabouts earlier today, Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign has had to deal with some unpleasant polling news in the last few days.
Team Romney, of course, is telling the press to pay no attention to those silly polls. And there’s some justification for that — we all know that midsummer opinion snapshots may have nothing to do with the results in November (remember Dukakis leading Bush I by double digits in the summer of ’88?), even leaving aside the variance in sampling methods and all the other statistical mumbo-jumbo that people throw around when quibbling with numbers they don’t like.
Besides, for all the money and effort that go into media polls, they’re dwarfed by the intensive private polling done by the campaigns themselves (which, obviously, have far more at stake). So it’s always been my belief that whatever they might say publicly, the candidates and their advisers know where things really stand in terms of public opinion… so you really just have to watch their campaigns’ actions to know who’s up and who’s down.
So, what have Team Romney’s actions during the past week shown us? For one thing, they ditched the all-hands-on-deck screeching about Obama’s ripped-out-of-context “You didn’t build that” remark (what, you mean it wasn’t working?) In fact, after months of insisting that the election would be won or lost based on the economy, Mitt’s campaign dug into a dog-eared Reagan-era playbook for a wholly fabricated politics-of-resentment attack on Obama’s supposed weakening of welfare reform policies.
And just today, they shifted gears again, asking those mean, bare-knuckled Democrats to stop playing so rough and — after all the distortions they once bragged about as a way of proving their political machismo — claimed to be aggrieved innocents whose campaign was being “conducted on the high ground.” Oh, and while those ridiculous media polls don’t mean a doggone thing, did you know that we’re gonna get a huge bounce in the polls from our convention?
Something about all that doesn’t convey the confidence of a campaign that knows it’s on the winning track. In fact, I don’t recall ever seeing a presidential nominee’s political strategy conveying so much uncertainty — if not downright panic — so far in advance of Labor Day.
I don’t know whether it’s amusing or frightening to think of what PR stunts they might pull at the Republican convention to try to change the game.
UPDATE: To paraphrase Woody Allen, the hardest part of being a cynic about the Romney campaign is keeping up. Deciding they have to name Mitt’s VP now — more than 2 weeks before the GOP convention, with the Olympics not over yet, and on a Saturday morning, no less! — is as pure a sign of panic as you can get. Republicans are famously obsessed with winning each and every short-term news cycle, and Team Romney must have decided that a mid-August weekend of Sunday talk shows asking whether Mitt’s candidacy is in trouble was a fate that had to be avoided at all costs.




79 Comments





Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About Firedoglake
SWOPA!
I think the most recent polling showing Obama ahead by high single digits and the evidence that the tax and Bain attacks are working has Rmoney running scared.
I find it entertaining to watch Rmoney try to set his business experience off limits for discussion, considering that it’s supposedly his best qualification for national office. I’m going to take a wild guess and say that the Obama campaign will tell him to take his “truce” and put it where the sun don’t shine.
Personally, I think they will just laugh at him. This is just another example of what we saw in the primaries, the more people see and know about Rmoney, the less they like him. He really is the living embodiment of what is wrong with America today.
Moooommmmmy! That nasty Barracks Obama and Hairless Reid are being mean to me. Make them stop, mommy!
Dear Mittens: Welcome to the game. As your predecessors’ advisors (Turdblossom and Atwater) established, there are no Marquis of Queensbury Rules in this game.
Put on your big boy pants and deal.
The Game Changer!
Nice to see the Democrats actually fighting back for a change. be nice if they did more of this the rest of the time and not just during the campaign.
Rmoney got through the primaries reinventing himself and his history daily. I guess he thought he had everyone fooled, but the biggest fool is Rmoney himself.
The one thing he is consistent on is his elite view of “you people.” It is incredible that he continues to exhibit his total tone-deafness to “the rabble” that is the voting public.
What a pathetic loser.
Obviously what they need to do is pick a VP candidate who revs up the base and totally alienates all sane humans. It worked so well for Grampy McBaggyPants.
Ain’t it just?
I just finished reading an interesting history/analysis of capital punishment in the US: Peculiar Institution: America’s Death Penalty in an Age of Abolition.
Best part: the author is an NYU academic from the U.K. He can (and does) take a dispassionate look at the subject.
He really is the worst presidential candidate from a major party that I have seen in my 60 years. Hell he even makes Nader and Ross Perot look good.
If I played the InTrade game, I’d put some on Paul Ryan right now. I’m assuming the punters haven’t already run him into a sucker’s bet, of course.
Ross Perot had a certain gem-in-the-rough charm to him. Romney has all the charm of a hungry crocodile.
There seems a lot of pressure for him to do that and it would certainly fit the bill. Hard to think of a more loathsome choice, other than perhaps one of the lesser losers from the primaries.
Perot had a certain charisma, like the snake oil salesman he is. Rmoney has less charisma than soggy cardboard.
InTrade has a 40% chance on Ryan, highest among all offered contracts.
*heh* Speaking of watching them…Is DHS Preparing an Oklahoma City Style False Flag Before November Elections?
Never a dull moment these daze, eh…?
Unfortunately (for Mittens), he seems to have little in the way of non-loathsome choices. That’s what you get for running as a Sith…er, Republican.
Mitt should chose Santorum – the “base” would go wild. Romney’s problem is that no one who is sane wants to commit political suicide.
I would applaud Ryan. It would place the entire panoply of tax and budget issues squarely in the spotlight. If surveys are anything like accurate, independents generally hate Ryan’s budget. I can only imagine how they’ll feel after its provisions and effects are made completely clear.
The only candidate I’d applaud more than Ryan would be Bible Spice herownself.
Right now that sounds about right. Might actually generate a bit of enthusiasm among the currently dispirited Gooper base.
Too true. All the saner (that is a relative term) are sitting this one out.
Santorum would be almost as amusing as Ryan. You can buy Frothy Mix contracts on InTrade for $0.02; i.e., a 0.1% chance.
SWOPA!
Hilarious when Rmoney insisted that everything connected to Willard, his companies, his family, his pets, his pets’ fleas and everything else back for 26 generations and an eon be “off limits” to the Obama campaign. In other words, Barack Obama should just stfu and let Willard run unopposed. Pretty soon the
punditidiot class will be insisting that Obama daring to say anything to, about or around Mitt Rmoney is just the same as some teabagging asshole waving a placard of Obama’s disembodied head on a pole.Frothy Mix might be a good choice, or Bachmann-Turner Diaries Overdrive.
We’ll find out tomorrow morning, willard makes his big announcement….
‘Mitt Romney is expected to name his choice for his vice presidential running mate on Saturday morning in Norfolk, Virginia.’
First lesson of Statistics Graduate School:
It ain’t a Sears and Roebuck Catalog, “Good”, “Better”, and “Best” don’t play here. You may have something that is “Best” and it may still suck pond scum.
Turns out that rule applies to GOTP political candidates, too.
Paul Ryan as veep? Dunno if I’m buying it. Whomever runs with Willard will have ended their political career as surely as the Quitter did.
That sounds about right. He really does not have much charisma and his negatives are huge.
When was that announcement made? Last I saw they were expecting him to spin this silliness out for another week.
America is not going to fall in love with Mitt Romney. (Hello John Boehner.) The wheels are coming off his candidacy, even before the convention.
So…we reelect the dud.
(But can you really expect much different in this rigged and gaudy game we play out as American democracy?)
Too true. He really was the “best” of the pathetic losers the GOP put forward and he is still by far the worst major party presidential candidate I have ever seen.
Cnn saying “the smoke leads you to Paul Ryan.”
Nominating a former Senator who was spanked in his last election would be a sop thrown to the base. It would also be an acknowledgement that 1600 is lost this cycle.
What it tells you about the candidate, Rmoney:
He caves to pressure from the ideological extreme right.
As we speak…
the update,
‘Stephen F. Hayes and William Kristol report that Romney is preparing to pick Paul Ryan.’
NYT online.
We already knew that, sweetie.
He caves to whatever “ideas” his “advisors” promote. Willard is a true cypher–he has no deeply-held beliefs or values of his own, unless you count the soulless maximization of wealth and privilege.
Well, good night all. We’re heading to Ft Leonard Wood tomorrow AM to see Capt CT.
um, no. He won’t resign his seat. Like lieberman and mccain, they hedge their bets. So will ryan.
I think we saw that in the primaries. I have never seen such a weak slate of candidates put forward by the GOP. Seems to me that the powers that be realized that no one sane, with a chance of winning would get by the foaming at the mouth base and, given the state of the economy, it might be better to let the Dems try to clean up the mess and hope for a better shot in 4 years.
Picking the guy who said kill Social Security and Medicare, eh? They must have enormous confidence in their voter suppression efforts.
In the current political environment, he has to.
Night! Have a good trip.
Okay, when did I say he was going to resign his seat? That’s not the only way to end a political career. He’ll have a “volcano monitoring” moment. He can’t help himself. He’s so far outside the mainstream and a national campaign will only amplify that.
I think that they have made the calculation that a lot of analysts have, this will be a base turnout election. Right now the GOP base is pretty apathetic.
*heh* I’ve been to ‘Lost in The Woods, Misery’, BCT, but I wasn’t a Cpt…! ;-)
And… Huntsman Sr. must’ve delivered a near mortal blow for them to scramble to make this intro Sat morning instead of teasing it out til the end of the week. Chuck Todd is weeping bitter tears into his goatee tonight.
Too true and most of the better options have already made that calculation. Christie and Rubio, for instance, have been furiously backpedaling on it.
Oh, this has always been Obama’s race to lose. Republicans like Kristol, Will and Rove know that. There’s no love lost on Willard and they recognize the teabag genie they released has made their position incredibly difficult. Add Ryan to the mix and the nutbag things he’s said over his career and he couldn’t get elected dog catcher outside his own district.
Indeed, I have expressed similar thoughts. But don’t discount them; Republicans are a conniving bunch, even with their diminishing demographic support. (They’re just mean, dammit!) And the Democrats? Totally useless. So here we are–and what a revolting development this is.
The people that sent him to washington, repeatedly don’t share either your or my sensibilities or perceptions.
I hope daylight is the disinfectant. I have enough trepidation regarding the other half of the voting public to be ill at ease.
It will be interesting how the corporate and business media process what is impending.
Well I’m not sure the media will be able to minimize the Ryan factor much. The Obamas have shown absolutely no shyness when it comes to highlighting Willard’s baggage, they would have a field day with Ryan.
Yes, but what plays in Kenosha and Janesville does not necessarily play nationally.
Veep pick tomorrow 8:45am eastern time in Norfolk.
Meanwhile, Bachmannia continues, Strib reporting her office distributes a speech further smearing Huma Abedin. But has she been seen lately? Where is Bachmann? Hiding out in the bushes next to the USS Wisconsin hoping for her moment? [arcane ancient Sunset Boulevard Gloria Swanson reference for the children....]
Again, case in point, Sarah Palin. Hugely, HUGELY popular in Alaska but in the lower 48, not so much. And the Republican men only supported her because they thought she was a hottie. Some, like Pat Buchanan, were quite open about it.
Who gets up at that hour on a Saturday? Not me…
Or Rich “Starbursts” Lowry. On that cheery note, I shall toddle off. Farmer’s market is tomorrow and we have Paradise peaches, Flathead cherries, and Dixon melons in season. I want to get there early to get my pick of the best stuff. Take care all.
Her good looks and energy only made McCain look older and more tired.
Yep but I’ll bet her looks gave Tweety a thrill up his leg too.
Oya. Me too I think.
Uppers!
And Chris will be back on the air tomorrow. Even though the Olympics are not yet over. And Mitt pledged he wouldn’t announce his pick until the Olympics was over.
Flipped again. Guess he thought once Rafalca lost out, the Olympics were over.
Post updated:
hmmm, Wolf makes it official…notes announcement coming while the Olys are still on.
Yep, the pressure on the tax returns was getting too explosive. Think this’ll defuse any of that? “Must be something really horrible in those tax returns if Mitt’d go to the extreme of insulting the entire Olympics to change the subject….” just sayin’….
True that.
Nighters, all. Gotta get UP before heading to the farmer’s market. Strawberries, raspberries, tomatoes, oh, my….
Well-analyzed, sir.
They’ve shown their fear. I wonder what Team O has planned for tomorrow afternoon, now, on the fly. Bomb Syria? Arrive in London for the gold medal B-ball game?
Chuck Todd reporting Paul Ryan, which means the GOP will lose its most reliable base component, the Olds.
Mrs Greenspan says Tagg Romney called T-Paw and Portman.
“Son, I don’t want to call these losers, will you do for your Dad, please?”
Picking VP early on a Saturday morning in the second week of August is strange timing.
A compelling Olympic games is coming to a robust conclusion, many families are vacationing or distracted by the pleasures of a late summer weekend and Tiger is leading the PGA.
Hmmm?
Holy shit. Really! We are watching “The Big Lebowski.”
So what’s going on with the veepstakes?
The Bain of Existence Made
AtlasKolob Shrug to Go For The TotalAssholeWeenie Ticket?Hey Kelly!
*heh* Most auspicious timing, Christine…! ;-)
Hey CE!
So Romney hasn’t gone all Galt. Just his money has.
And Paul Ryan? Voucher Boy – not loved by millions.
http://my.firedoglake.com/teddysanfran/2012/08/10/mitts-veep-is-paul-ryan-nbc/
Think that Paul Ryan is truly the pick? Yeech.
Strong candidates use VP selection to attract the muddled middle or a specific block of electoral college votes.
Weak candidates use the VP selection to firm up the base.
If Romney picks Ryan, it signals more then weakness. I smell panic.
To lie as easily and as often and Romney does to other people he has had to lie most convincingly to himself. Or he is just a sociopath. Take your pick.