Tonight features three contests in the Republican presidential race. There are primaries in Alabama and Mississippi, and there is a caucus in Hawaii. You can find my primer for tonight here.
Polls close in Alabama and Mississippi at 8 pm Eastern
Real time results can be found at Politico or Google.
7:55 pm – Early exit poll data indicates that in both states being able to beat Obama is considered the most important quality among a plurality of voters.
8:00 pm – All polls are now closed in Alabama and Mississippi. There are no immediate projections. The race in both states is close.
8:02 pm – You can find the Alabama exit polls here. So far Rick Santorum has small lead in the exit polling of Alabama. You can also find the Mississippi exit polls here. In Mississippi indicates are that Mitt Romney has a narrow lead.
8:07 pm – Despite the very conservative nature of Mississippi, exit polls have Romney doing surprisingly well. Romney tied Santorum with evangelicals who make up 80% of the vote in Mississippi. That is impressive.
8:10 pm – In Alabama Santorum is narrowly winning evangelicals. That is what is giving him the edge on Romney in that state.
8:15 pm – This could be the end of the Gingrich campaign. While the exit polling data is often revised once the votes start being counted, early indications suggest he will lose both Southern states. It will by hard for Gingrich to keep running if he loses this evening.
8:20 pm – Tonight is another reminder of just how extremely white the Republican party is. In Mississippi 97% of those voting in the primary tonight are white, overall the state is only 59.1% white. In Alabama 93% of the turnout is white, overall just 68.5% of people in Alabama are white.
8:25 pm – Gingrich and Santorum splitting the anti-Romney vote is what is saving Romney this evening. In Mississippi 50% of the electorate thinks Romney’s positions are not conservative enough, but Gingrich and Santorum are splitting that vote right down the middle. Each is getting 39% of the vote from people who think Romney is not conservative enough.
8:42 pm – Vote counting is going extremely slowly tonight. Basically no votes counted yet in either state.
8:55 pm – First results are just now starting to trickle in. In Mississippi with 2% reporting, it is Santorum 36%, Gingrich 30%, Romney 28, Paul 5%. This is likely going to be a late night.
9:05 pm – With 8% reporting in Mississippi, it is currently Santorum 32%, Romney 30%, Gingrich 29%.
9:20 pm – Counting continues to be incredibly slow in Alabama. In Mississippi with 17% reporting, it is Santorum 34%, Gingrich 31%, Romney 30%.
9:30 pm – Finally starting to get some real numbers from Alabama. With 4% reporting, it is Santorum 35%, Gingrich 29%, Romney 28%, Paul 6%.
9:35 pm – Results are now starting to come in pretty quickly. With 40% reporting in Mississippi, it is Santorum 33%, Gingrich 31%, Romney 30%. Santorum’s final margin in Mississippi might end up better than the original exit polling indicated.
9:45 pm – Mississippi is up to 60% reporting and Santorum still has the lead. Santorum 33%, Gingrich 31%, Romney 31%.
9:50 pm – In Alabama we now have 25% reporting. It is Santorum 35%, Gingrich 30%, Romney 28%. The night is still looking very good for Santorum.
9:53 pm – NBC projects that Rick Santorum will win Alabama.
9:57 pm – Most of the votes have been counted in Mississippi and surprisingly Santorum still has a lead. With 79% reporting in MS, it is Santorum 33%, Gingrich 32%, Romney 30%. At this point the best outcome in Mississippi for the Romney campaign might be for Gingrich to pull off a very narrow win and use it to justify staying in the race.
10:00 pm – The exit poll data has been revised in Mississippi and it now has Santorum narrowly winning.
10:10 pm – Not looking good for Romney tonight. He is not racking up the big margins in the urban areas he needs to.
10:20 pm – Now at 82% reporting in Mississippi. It is Santorum 33%, Gingrich 32%, Romney 30%.
10:30 pm – 88% reporting in Mississippi. It is Santorum 33%, Gingrich 32%, Romney 30%. Odds are extremely good Santorum will win Mississippi.
10:32 pm – Santorum is speaking now.
10:44 pm – There is now 96% reporting in Mississippi and it is Santorum 33%, Gingrich 31%, Romney 30%. It is basically impossible for Santorum to lose now.
10:46 pm – Fox News is projecting that Rick Santorum will win Mississippi.
10:50 pm – CNN is now also projecting that Rick Santorum will win Mississippi.
Final thoughts – This was a truly fanastic night for Rick Santorum. By winning the two Southern states he again proves that he is a serious contender. These wins should also help Santorum convince donors to continue to fund his campaign and inspire his volunteers to keep turnout to support him.
In addition Santorum’s double win proves that Gingrich’s Southern strategy is a failure. If Gingrich losing both Mississippi and Alabama can convince him to drop out that would be huge for Santorum. Romney has been depending on Gingrich and Santorum splitting the anti-Romney vote.
Mitt Romney again had a chance to end the primary quickly but failed to close the deal. The Republican primary just got a lot longer.



73 Comments





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Here we go!
Well… Right now, I’m truly contemplating whether or not, I have the gumption to face a room full of Goopers, and actually caucus for Ron Paul…! I’ve still got a few more hours to go, here in the Isles…! ;-)
All those white voters…Racism surely dies hard, if at all.
Interestingly, none of the current Clown Car participants have made the journey out here to the Isles…! I suppose Hawai’i truly is the ‘last bastion’ of Democracy…! ;-)
It’s cause you got a REALLY BIG moat!
In Mississippi 50% of the electorate thinks Romney’s positions are not conservative enough…
and the other 50% don’t know what that word means.
Why, sounds like a trip made for Mitt or for Newt and his bride…..Have they been invited?
Not surprised at all that 97% of the voters are white – this is, after all, a Republican primary. Blacks in Ms are Democrats.
*heh* It does tend to keep the riff-raff out…! ;-)
The nutty Republican primary field is packed with a bunch of Sarah Palin look-alikes, think-alikes and sound-alikes.
IOW, some watching “Game Change” have said that John McCain selecting Sarah Palin to be his running mate in 2008, especially without fully vetting her, was a really bad move and probably led to McCain losing so bad to Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama. (Joe Biden as Obama’s VP running mate stands in sharp contrast to Sarah Palin). Therefore, some Republicans watching “Game Change” are saying or implying that any future Republican presidential candidate should be much more careful in their VP selection, so another Sarah Palin doesn’t happen.
Except Sarah Palin now represents the norm in Republican Party circles, especially Tea Party circles; uninformed, racist, misogynist, arch-religious, women’s-rights-hating, “Second Amendment” remedy espousing, tax-cutting and fewer government regulations solves everything maniacs, you know, today’s Republican Party as represented by today’s Republicans vying to run against President Obama in November.
I respect John McCain. Sarah Palin looked like a joke candidate beside him. Just as all of the Republican presidential primary contenders today look like joke candidates. Which raises the question, who would these Republicans choose to be their VP running mate if they finally win enough Republican delegates? Some Republican even worse than Sarah Palin’s choice was to John McCain’s presidential aspirations?
Newt needs to do really well tonight. He won’t drop out if he loses IMO but he will be finished.
The local Goopers have sent out many invites to all the Clowns, but, anybody that has an R next to their name is an endangered species here, I think there’s only 2 Repugs in the entire state Legislature, all the smart ones have bailed out and retagged their sorry okoles as Dems…! Way too many ‘reformed’ Rethugs(DINOs) abound…! And Sen. Inouye(DINO) is the veritable ‘Kingmaker’ of Hawai’i's Dimwits…! 8-(
Romney will select Haley Barber for his VP.
Santorum will select Kay Bailey Hutchingson
Gingrich will select Calista.
Now if I could just float Colorado up into the sky – sky moat – and retake Aspen…ahhh, that’d be sweet.
We just keep keeping on.
How much is Willard paying Newt to stay in the race?
Could this spell the end to the political career of the vile Newt Gingrich? I surely hope so.
He’s fighting with Ron Paul for the title of 21st Century Harold Stassen.
We just keep keeping on.
Amen, Kelly…! Here’s a little Occupy Hilo action last nite, at a ‘Talk Story’ session held by our Mayor Billy Kenoi, in the ‘belly of the beast’, Pahoa town…! ;-)
Washed up Republican politicians never end. They just become commentators on Fox News.
LOL !!!
I see Jayt & Kelly are in fine form …
Twain !
Newt knows he can be “Cheney” to either of these 2 bozos, and that’s what he’s holding out for.
{{{ Marion }}}
Hah! Good!
Ya think? I would need to bleach my brain for that one. Can you imagine that over-stuffed, over-rated, and over-sexed jerk being in the VP spot? Yuck!
Hey, Petro, how are you in the land of ice and snow?
Petro!
Well, hey…form is about what I gots about now. ‘Cept Christoph is making quesadillas, so I’ll gets one of them in a few. :)
But the candidates are what the base wants. And what the base wants is really nutty, likely even more so than the clown car full of dopes. It says something about all of us that they are so reactionary.
Watching Jennifer Granholm. Nice conversation there.
On the downside of the race – Ron Paul ain’t getting his customary ~10% of the vote. 4s and 5s in AL and MS.
Downward trend for him.
I wish the GOP race didn’t suck so much oxygen out of the room. And that the MSM didn’t, well, suck, with false equivalency and being a right-wing press.
There’s more politics out there. Some people will never vote Democrat or Repulican ever again, or even vote. That’s a message in the bottle.
Willie Brown says Mittens will take Santorum.
About time.
We got rain and mild temps, not much snow this winter …
This race dragging on to the Convention has caused Sarah Palin to resurface … this will become really comical now !
I really enjoyed your music posted over the Holidays but haven’t caught up with you on a thread to say “thanks” until now.
How sweet of you! We’ll go ’round the world again this Summer – it’s Olympic year for one, and EUROVISION in May!
*heh* I’m sure Hawai’i will boost Ron’s #’s, maybe I should brave the Repugs tonite, afterall…! Btw, Hawai’is vast Military population will turn out for RP…! The Mittster should take the state tho, as Jon had noted, it does have a large Mormon contingent…! ;-)
We’ll have to see how RP does in IL next to see if that’s a trend. I just find it interesting for right now.
MSNBC Calling AL for Santorum
Not surprising. Guns, Gays, Gals, and God – gag.
Why does Steve Schmidt still have a job/make appearances? That guy should be frikking laughed out of the political consulting business – forever.
Re: Newt as “Cheney”
Now that is remark worthy of some thought. Did Mr. Contract with America actually know what he was doing?
Cheney was happiest in the background. Which of them would want Newt constantly upstaging him.
They’ve lost the fight against teh gay and are losing the fight against wimmens. Guns are selling off the charts and God is Allah !
That’ll be fun ! Can’t wait …
Why isn’t Ron Paul doing well in racist states?
Why can’t racists detect one of their own?
This comment section is a little lethargic.
C’mon, people…it’s our democracy at stake!
Go, Ricky, Go!
Fight, Ricky, Fight!
Goooooo, Ricky!
Followed by Mark Penn…! ;-)
The number one thing voters are looking at is ELECTABILITY. My guess? They know that Ron Paul can’t win.
I do find it amusing that they think Santorum can. There has already been anecdotal evidence to suggest that he loses the centrist Republican women from the party with his extreme views on reproduction for women.
The RNC VIPs must be having heart issues about now. All they need to finish them off is some goof ball who hates women.
When reality contradicts the polls, the polls are wrong. Electability, apparently, is not these voters’ principal concern.
Being right is more important. Hence, Santorum.
Go, Ricky, Go!
Looking at Santorum’s wifey. I wonder if she had one of those revirginalization thingies after her six years of slutting with the doctor who delivered her? I just can’t keep up.
Apparently some of the GOP wants to have a referendum on “values” even though our economy is in a shambles.
This should be an interesting election cycle. I suspect that if you equivocate that anyone who does not subscribe to Santorum’s views is valueless or without a moral compass and they aren’t “real” Christians that the GOP loses- by a bit.
Looking at Frothy, I wonder if Birth Control can be retroactive …
Huffington Post projects Santorum as winning Mississippi
She looks exhausted to me. Seven children and she home-schools – that’s just madness.
Not ALL women- just the ones that have the balls to raise children AND have jobs or that aren’t submissive and believe they are responsible for their own identities, or practice birth control. Okay, so that makes it MOST women.
Romney is Jesus’ brother!
(aka Satan)
.
At least that’s what I’m telling everyone from now on…
It would explain a lot…Mitt’s lack of empathy isn’t really his fault, you see.
.
(Rick Santorum will be The Black Pope/Vice Prez.)
The Rs have a real problem regarding the VP slot. If Mitt wins they need a southerner or a Texan, I guess. Oh, god, Rick Perry, come on down. If Frothy wins the nomination they can take a homeless person off the street because it won’t matter.
The republican PTB’s wanted Gingrich out, after it looked like he could bugger things up following his win in S.C.
Now, they’ll want him to stay in, to hamstring Santorum. :o)
ROFL … Twain !
Mitt will likely choose Rubio as his Veep, to attract the minority/Xtianist vote … and also to blame Rubio, when they lose.
I suspect Romney is just exhausted from twisting himself into pretzels to suit the GOP.
He’s a moderate, pretending to be a conservative. Santorum is just nuts. His election will probably be the closest thing we have to a referendum on whether we want a theocracy instead of a democracy.
Zactly.
And while I appreciate the results of the 1860 and 1864 presidential elections, Santorum atop their ticket this year is the best chance to crush the Republican party since 1856.
I remember reading years ago that Hispanics did not consider Cubans to be Hispanics. Don’t know about the truth of that.
She probably IS exhausted. Not only is she caring for and schooling 7 children but the youngest is a special needs child that requires ALOT of medical attention.
I sympathize with her even as I see her husband as looney tunes.
So do I. She sorta looks manic to me.
Mrs. Santorum did not really home school 5 of those kids when they lived in Virginia and he represented PA in the Senate.Their Pennsylvania home school district paid for a cyber school. When the district asked for the money to be returned because the children were not living in state, the school district had to go to court for the money with Santorum fighting it all the way!
Even with cyber schooling you would need to help a child digest the materials. That being said, it WAS ridiculous that Santorum bilked the district for the money.
Politico as of this posting shows me and Ricky winning AL and MS and the Republican party Destructo-Derby!
Why?? Cuz we’re both right!!
Karl Rove is right now sharping his pencil and making plans to crush Frothy. The battle from here on is likely to be a bloodbath.
Cool!
Popcorn time!
I would never have entered the political arena so enthusiastically were it not for popcorn!
Romney has practically ruled out Santorum as his VP pick if he wins the nomination.
I don’t know why he did that just now, when Santorum has some momentum. I think it’s a mistake to have said it, but at the rate Willard’s going, he’ll at least win the Hillary Clinton award for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
I wonder if there is a condom that is big enough to fit over the heads of these neanderthal Republicans, maybe a full-body condom, you know, to protect all the rest of us from their theocratic lunacy, protecting supportive American men and contraceptive-using women alike, so we don’t all get their STD, Sexism Transmitted Disease, which could prove fatal for many American women (wives, daughters, mothers and sisters), as it has in the past.