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In the Republican presidential primary race Colorado and Minnesota are having their caucuses this evening. In addition Missouri held a “beauty contest” primary that will have no effect on delegate selection. Here is an explanation for why Missouri is wasting millions on this meaningless primary.
The polls closed in Missouri at 8pm Eastern. Caucuses in Minnesota start at 8 pm Eastern and in Colorado at 9 pm Eastern.
You can find my primer for tonight here. Results can be found at Politico or Google. There were no exit/entrance polling of these contests so the races are not likely to be called until relatively late.
9:30 pm – We are finally starting to get some real results from the contests. In Minnesota, with 4.4 percent reporting, it is Rick Santorum 44.5%, Ron Paul 23.8%, Mitt Romney 19.4%, Newt Gingrich 12.3%.
In Missouri, with 22.8 percent reporting, it is Santorum 52.4%, Romney 26.6%, Paul 11.7%. Gingrich decided not to get on the ballot for this beauty contest in Missouri.
9:38 pm – First numbers from Colorado. With 3.9 percent reporting it is Santorum 49.8%, Gingrich 23.5%, Romney 17.4%, Paul 9.2%
It is still early but so far it is shaping up to be a good night for Santorum.
9:44 pm – CNN has called Missouri for Rick Santorum. Santorum will win this beauty contest by a big margin, but it is important to point out that no other candidate besides Santorum even bothered to campaign in Missouri. In retrospect this a smart PR move for his campaign.
9:55 pm – In Minnesota with 13 percent reporting it is Santorum 43.5%, Paul 26.7%, Romney 17.5%, Gingrich 12.1%. There is a good chance Romney could end up in third place in Minnesota.
10:10 pm – Some more votes have come in from Minnesota. With 18.8 percent reporting it is Santorum 43.1%, Paul 27.1%, Romney 17.4, Gingrich 11.9%.
10:26 pm – The major networks are calling Minnesota for Rick Santorum. With 27.7 percent reporting it is Santorum 44.9%, Paul 26.5%, Romney 16.9%, Gingrich 11.3%
10:34 pm – This is a big night for Santorum, he gets at least two wins before people go to bed this evening.
10:40 pm – In retrospect Romney should have followed Gingrich’s lead by not putting his name on the ballot in Missouri given that it is a meaningless contest. Santorum beating Romney in Missouri is a story, Santorum only beating Ron Paul would not be much of a story.
10:48 pm – Santorum is giving his victory speech now. He is trying to claim the title of the conservative in the race.
11:00 pm – With 96 percent reporting in Missouri it is Santorum 55%, Romney 25%, Paul 12%. It is important to note this is a non-binding primary. Gingrich chose not to take part and Santorum was the only candidate to campaign in the state. Even with those factors taken into account, this is still a big margin for Santorum.
11:05 pm – Ron Paul is projected to take second in Minnesota, this means Minnesota is the first contest so far that Romney didn’t take first or second place.
11:25 pm – We are finally getting so more data from Colorado and it is pretty good news for Santorum. With 26 percent reporting it is Santorum 42%, Romney 31%, Gingrich 15%, Paul 12%.
11:45 pm – In Colorado with 30 percent reporting it is Santorum 42%, Romney 30%, Gingrich 15%, Paul 12%.
12:30 pm – Calling it a night. With the vote close it looks like Colorado won’t be called any time soon
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Ah well. I guess it’s good for comedy value, at least, if Sanctimonious Santorum gets to hold onto his delusions of relevance.
For once, Frothy isn’t bringing up the rear.
that one got a real laugh out of me.
Santorum shoots out prematurely.
But you don’t want to be around him when the bubble bursts.
…and, in Missouri, impotently.
Someone please mop up the santorum on aisle 7. Someone could slip and fall and can’t sue on account of SanTortum Reformum.
It looks like Romney might not have any victory today.
And if Santorum wins all three, doesn’t that become the Conventional Wisdom Media headline?
Rick is beating Ron I did not expect this Newt and Rick make a deal Mitt might be in trouble Super Tuesday is not expected to be a Mitt day but if Newt or Rick drop out the anti Mitt vote won’t be split.
If the Fundy anti Mitt vote stays split then a Corporate GOper gets all the blame if Mitt loses to Obama. Long term implications the Corporate wing of the GOP is toast for a few years.
I sure would like to be a fly on the wall in the Denver R caucuses…
Anyhow, I bet Ron Paul gets at/about/maybe a little over 10% of the caucus total when it’s all counted. Maybe even as high as 12%. There’s a lot of gold bugs/debt hawks here.
Funny no Fundy can be the MSM new darling:)
Frothy turns out to be the next Not Willard. The one percent Republicans created this base and now they are going to pay the price for it. A brokered convention looks more and more possible.
Unfortunately, a brokered convention allows them to nominate somebody undamaged by the process.
And the Republican war on women has become so horrible that, even if we agree he’s every bit as much of a corporatist as the Repubs, there is an area of meaningful difference. I haven’t decided anything but I say this having sworn as many “never again” oaths as most others here.
Jeb Bush?
Chris Christie?
The one who seems like the best bet at the time.
But remember that the process is still young. It’s difficult to see Santorum or Gingrich playing well in NY or CA.
I’ve always thought of Christie on a ticket as Romney’s VP. He connects to white working class voters.
Romney routed rivals in FL. Conventional Wisdom (MSM Pundits and Prognosticators) said that R Floridian primary voters were smart enough to vote for the guy that could beat Obama.
IMHO, Florida could have gone to Newt the way South Calina did.
Now – here’s that dope – Santorum – surging… pulsing…
Are Florida Rethugs really smarter than other Rethugs?
I don’t think so.
What gives?
Let’s see… Pawlenty sided with Romney and Sarah Palin with Gingrich. I like how that worked. Ha-ha!
The religious loony toons want a government based on christianity. How do you do that with a mormon? All the people that don’t care are democrats.
I’d bet on Rubio as VP. It would do wonders to get out the Hispanic vote for the repubs. OTOH, it might keep the more racist repubs at home.
On Topic….What a disaster this is for Mitt. I didn’t expect it to be this bad.
Bush/Cheney
(Jeb/Liz)
I agree that you have the choice (which extends beyond Rubio & Christie) exactly right. My thinking is that Romney will have a special need to generate enthusiasm with the base.
Yeah. There will definitely be a ‘bagger on that ticket, no matter the who nominee is.
How many people voted for Ricky Poo?
I don’t want percentages, I want numbers. damn it. to hell. :)
That’s my bet too.
I have to believe the Colorado caucus will tighten.
I also have to go to bed. G’night all.
This is a big night for Santorum, he gets at least two wins before people go to bed this evening.
Those people in bed had better watch their step because Santorum firmly believes they shouldn’t be making whoopee just for the fun of it.
I’m quite surprised that the “self-hating minorities” and “submissive wimmens” blocks aren’t coming out in stronger support of Newticles …
I may be wrong about this but there are a lot of people around NJ and NY who like Christie. I’m pretty sure whoever wins this will be looking at him. He is prickly but if you need the NY metro crowd, he could do it.
Make damn sure you are not using, you know….
That sounded more like a requiem than a victory speech.
Damn poor speech.
Maybe the self hating minorities have decided they don’t want to clean toilets after all.
These are loyal soldiers. they will vote whoever Koch tells them to and like it. Damn it.
Santorum’s campaign for VP is well on track
And for the 1st time in months, Rick gets to be on top of Mitt tonight …
In Sex as in Racing, it’s most exciting to come from behind …
I expect that will tighten up a bit, but the contours remain about the same, with Paul around 11-12%, Gingrich above that a bit, and a more narrow race between Romney/Santorum.
Santorum could well come out on top, because caucusing ain’t for sissies and the hard-core party faithful show in force; they want the Personhood issue on the ballot AGAIN, for the 3rd time in a row.
An inspired turn on the media propaganda horse race. The one sub set of religious fascist versus the another subset of religious fascist. The popularity of the horse was waning after the super bowl so they needed something for the sheeple to ruminate about.
Really? In the last 30 years how often has the eventual Republican nominee had a VP that he ran against?
Nope, they choose someone who they didn’t run against, and usually didn’t run at all.
This is the first time Romney came in behind Ron Paul.
That portends unelectability.
who was VP under Bush I? Jeez. I don’t even remember.
Dan Quayle … I totally understand why you forgot about him ! *g*
Reagan/Bush springs to mind, but that was because the Trilateral Commission/Carlyle didn’t trust the West Coast Brain Trust behind St Ronnie.
Before then? Never.
How could anyone forget Dan Potatoe Quayle? Wonder what he’s doing these days…
Why did I imagine that Colorado would be more receptive to Ron Paul?
Yeah. I was trying to think of one and drew a blank on Dan Quayle. It’ll take some research and I’m going to bed. Before I do, i leave with these 2 comments: 1)Brokered convention will not happen-though political junkies like us would love it; 2)Running mates matter very, very little, although political junkies like us like to play the parlor game of trying to figure out who will be picked. I know I do. It’s fun, but in the end the pick doesn’t matter. Romney will win the nomination and pick Christie. Or not.
really. how could i forget him?
Why, he’s running the company that ruined Chrysler after Mercedes got done screwing it up, Cerberus. Vulture capital.
Well he *did* have have an unforgettable mix of smarm and entitlement about him.
Ron Paul’s anti-war message cripples him everywhere.
It’s still the blood thirsty GOP after all.
Yes, Cerberus, that’s right…
Did he get the foetus vote? Surely, he did.
And, not to pee in the holy water, but how many delegates did he get?
If Ron Paul edges Gingrich in Colorado, then Gingrich lost to Ron Paul in all three states.
Gingrich may drop out, which would ensure a Santorum victory.
Aw, that would be a crying shame. Newtie makes the clown car roll.
“It’s still the bloodthirsty GOP, after all.”
It sure is. They can’t get enough of the mayhem, as long as THEIR sons aren’t involved in it…like Romney’s service-averse clutch of yellow elephants.
But the good news is that the repub hatchet-fight may not be over, just yet. This means that Romney has to keep licking bible-zombie ass for a while yet. No nice “statesman” mantle for you, Mitt; better practice some snake-handling moves…you might still need them.
I think Newt will be encouraged by this. The “not Romney’s” are still flexing their muscles, especially, the ones between their ears.
“Anything could happen!” Can’t be retired just yet. :o)
Obama and the social engineer limousine liberals might face a Catholic Buzzsaw in November if they don’t start getting it.
Once Romney starts to flip-flop back to the middle for the general, Obama will slice and dice him for those flip flops.
Romney cannot emerge electable after a bruising fight.
“A brokered convention looks more and more possible.”
It do. And wouldn’t that be fun to watch! Palin and Perry could return from the dead, to bedevil the GOP “moderates”, and like a couple of Great Whites, rip gobbets of political flesh from the repub elites. :o)
‘thought, if I believed that the political climate was going to be relatively stable by mid-summer, I’d agree with you but there are some baaad spinning plates still turning, as we speak. I’m starting to think that the Israelis are confident enough that a vulnerable Obama will have to come in with them even if they go after Iran, solo, and that the republicans know it and will be secretly (openly?) egging them on to do it. If that happens, then Obama will be the one who won’t be re-elected. Period. Exclamation point.
g’night guys. interesting night. i love this shit but CO is too late for me.
Put it like this: I think that, as we speak, the Israelis are deciding whether or not they want Barack Obama to get a second term. One JDAM sailing into Iran, and he won’t.
I think the Catholic “Buzzsaw” has been blunted by the pederast-protection policy, and by the simple march of time.
Too many women of all religious stripes are tired of unwanted pregnancies, bless their hearts.
Also, I read today where Obama has signaled “a willingness to negotiate” on the matter of birth control. Since he’s already thrown teenage girls under the bible-zombie bus, I don’t know what he’ll give away next, but his track record in dickering with conservatives has basically consisted of “If I bend over, will you at least bring the vaseline?”
No, you miss the point. Catholics, “ethnics” like Italians and Irish, working class folks, they can turn on Obama and go to ONE OF THEIR OWN, Rick Santorum. I get it, Santorum isn’t going to win Progressives, homosexuals, feminisits, etc. 20% of the population.
But if Santorum were to nominate a VP that appeals to moderates and independents, it could give Obama trouble.
No, the point is, Santorum is a fucking lunatic. In that, he’s just like Gingrich. If either one of them can somehow get nominated, you can hang around the fence outside the White House and watch Barack Obama and his wife and staff, dancing naked in the moonlight.
If Santorum gets within sniffing distance of the nomination, the only “problem” he’ll cause Obama is deciding just how much of his NEW mandate, he can deed over to the corporate lords, and how long he’ll have to wait to do it.
Clearly, South Carolina has no monopoly on peckerheads. There are quite a few of them in other states, but not enough in the high-delegate states to give Santorum a snake’s chance at the nomination.
It’s called “math”. Really.
That is the spirit of 2010.
Just sayin’
“that is the spirit of 2010.”
Whatever THAT means….
Just sayin… :o)
If you’re referring to the mid-term debacle, that handwriting was on the wall early-on, when Obama began “reaching out” to the republicans and, gosharootie, they cut off his hand and scratched his ass with it. Americans don’t like mandate-squandering, but a clear majority of them like religious loons like Santorum even less.
If Willard, as some have said, is insurance for the 1% ‘rs (and he is…) then a republican nomination of Santorum would be the 8-ball in the side pocket FOR Barack Obama…
Looks like his visit to the vest factory helped Santorum sew up Minnesota!
Ed Schultz and Lawrence O’Donnell have Pawlenty of reason to smile!