
Markets fear the Euro economies will tank (image: Elena Schweitzer/shutterstock.com)
One of the constants until now in the unraveling of the Euro financial system has been that bond holders would accept and hold German bonds, even flee to them as they dumped other Euro-nation bonds. That was keeping yields — and German borrowing costs – much lower than other Euro nations.
But investors threatened to blow right by that safety today when they bought less than two thirds of the German bonds up for auction. From Reuters:
“The debt crisis is burrowing ever deeper, like a worm, and is now reaching Germany,” one of the more eurosceptic backbenchers in Angela Merkel’s center-right government, Frank Schaeffler of the junior coalition partner Free Democrats (FDP), told Reuters.
The German debt agency could not find buyers for almost half a bond sale of 6 billion euros. That pushed the cost of borrowing over 10 years for the bloc’s paymaster above those for the United States for the first time since October.
“It is a complete and utter disaster,” said Marc Ostwald, strategist at Monument Securities in London.
To be sure, German yields are still not much above 2 percent — the lowest in the Euro zone and well below the 7 percent yields threatening Italy and Spain — but an auction seen as “one of the least successful debt sales by Europe’s powerhouse economy since the launch of the single currency” is not a good sign.
It will be interesting now to see whether this affects Germany’s adamant opposition to allowing the European Central Bank backstop the Euro and Euro-nation debt. So far, not so much:
In a forceful speech to the Bundestag, the lower house of the German parliament, Merkel issued one of her starkest warnings yet against fiddling with the bank’s strict inflation-fighting mandate. She also hit back at proposals from the European Commission on joint euro zone bond issuance, calling them “extraordinarily inappropriate.”
Shortly before she began speaking, French Finance Minister Francois Baroin told a conference in Paris that it was the ECB’s responsibility to sustain activity in the currency bloc.
“The best response to avoid contagion in countries like Spain and Italy is, from the French viewpoint, an intervention (or) the possibility of intervention or announcement of intervention by a lender of last resort, which would be the European Central Bank,” Baroin said.
More on the German bond sale from the Financial Times, and a pessimistic view on any change in German positions regarding the ECB.
In the meantime, the ECB, which insists it is legally prohibited from purchasing government bonds directly to support Euro nations, stepped up its indirect efforts by increasing its lending to European banks. The banks hold massive quantities of Euro nation bonds that are declining in value, threatening the solvency of the banks. According to the Financial Times, the ECB provided €247bn to banks on Tuesday, much higher than previous weeks.
There’s a massive run on the Euro system going on, and no one is stopping it. The Euro rescue fund is too small, a jointly backed Euro bond is not available, and the IMF isn’t designed to do this. So far, the ECB, which could solve this, has seemed to act only sporadically to provide funds to governments (indirectly) and banks. What investors are waiting for is for the ECB to announce it will do whatever it takes and not let the system fail, and convince everyone it’s serious. That’s what a central bank acting as “lender of last resort” is supposed to do.
More from Dr. Doom, Nuriel Roubini, “Europe’s Contagion has now gone viral . . . and global” [h/t wendydavis]



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IMO, this has gone way too far. Just don’t think they will be able to unwind it — even if they try.
No with a whimper but with a bang.
It may be a sign to Germany to detach from the other EU countries as soon as possible.
Merk will NOT preside over breakup of EU any more than Lincoln would preside over breakup of US. She’d rather wreck the whole thing, as Lincoln did, in the name of preservation.
On edit: And look what happened to scumbag Lincoln. BESTEST prez who evah lived (though barely just long enough).
Nouriel Roubini: ‘Europe’s contagion has now gone viral…and GLOBAL.’
http://www.businessinsider.com/roubini-europes-contagion-has-now-gone-viraland-global-2011-11
Willingly, maybe not.
Warren Mosler has an article on a proposal to allow for euro bonds here:
The question is going to be whether the countries in the euro are willing to surrender their soverignty this way. they may not have an option.
“Ladies and gentlemen, the Titanic has sprung a slight leak. There’s no cause for alarm, but should passengers wish to sing the praises of our wonderful engineers, hymnals are located in the lifeboats.” :-0
ah, thanks for finding that link. Can’t have a gloomy story without Dr. Doom.
Yeah, Titanic imagery; one of the stories I read said Germany was “the first class passengers on the Titanic.”
I don’t see how any of the EU proposed controls will help now. It’s like the GOP demanding we have a balanced budget amendment as a means to stimulate the economy and create public jobs in the middle of a depression.
Having a little trouble understanding your comments on Lincoln. Is it your opinion that we would have been better off letting the South secede? (Then we wouldn’t have the present day holdover attitudes of the South?)
If so, then what about the precedent for future secessions, ala Gov. Goodhair and Texas, those who wouldn’t mind spinning CA off into its own country, etc?
I think Buffett and Soros have similiar predictions. So too do all the so called MMT economists, like Roche and Mosler. The eurozone is stuck in austerity demanded by Germany. The result is near zero growth and maybe negative this quarter or next. Can’t support a failing economy on a declining revenues which is what is happening. Sounds like they either do something now or plan to unwind the whole thing.
Let those people go.
Too cryptic. Still don’t understand.
If they allowed the ECB to buy up the bonds, it could, I say could, turn this around, but no gurantees. Problem is for the third time in a hundred years, as Mosler said, Germany is mucking up Europe. They won’t allow the ECB to do anything, yet. Maybe today’s bond sale will help refocus them.
The balanced budget amendment, like the debt limit, was/is proposed by fools. What more can you say.
They need to buy the bonds AND drop the austerity demands. They are unlikely to do the former, they will never do the latter.
yes.
The real problem in all this for us here in the states is it is a contagion. All these banks and derivatives are connected. We could be headed to 2008 all over again. Bailouts, here we go again. Anyone know how much debt there is over there?
Holy Crap America is next
The next piece of that is a story earlier yesterday (dday?) that the Fed is demanding US major banks do another test of their risks, assuming a Euro fail and a recession in the US — taking into account whatever exposure they have. Results due in another month or so. The message is — we’re warning you now, and here are some really bad scenarios you have to consider and prepare for.
So never mind the “failure” of the SupersillyCommittee. Our nominal grownups are saying,look at Europe, this could get really bad. That’s why we’ve been staying on this story at FDL, even though it may seem boooorrrrrrinnnggg sometimes.
Ahh well, time for another dust up across Europe. North against the south, so to speak. Where does that leave France?
I”m starting to see the whole wolrd economy as a sophisticated game of three card monte.
Ah, but think: the South would have nothing to do but act belligerently toward its neighbors…
Keep your friends close and the South closer.
Yes, I saw that story yesterday. Don’t get me started on that committee. That’s another bullshit austerity committee in the face of a depression (that’s how I see it with 16% unemployed). WTF is going to happen if Europe blows up with a president who can’t find his ass with both hands?
If they want to secede, let them.
Aha. South convicted after the counterfactual. Clever defense.
Same as always. In the middle. the want the ECB to do its job, but Germany opposes, and Sarkozy prefers working with Ms. Merkel rather than against her. But lately, French bond yields have been rising — a growing spread between what they have to pay to borrow, and what Germany has to pay, just as happened with Italy, Spain, etc — so it’s clear France’s interest are not aligned with Germany’s. And even if they get beyond the bank run/crisis, no one, no one, is calling for stimulus to grow their economies. Train wreck.
They think they can stem the outflow of money with austerity but they havn’t figued out that revenue falls too. And that is what is happening to them. Either way, stimulus or austerity, it appears they need money. In the US you just make it, but in Europe, not so simple. They could do it, but they outsmarted themselves with no fiscal authority, it seems. Train wreck on the way.
On the contrary, the Balanced Budget Amendment was proposed and is supported by Very Serious People. Only a fool would be against it. You know, like us. :-)
Of course its a train wreck. Goldman Sucks is in charge of all these countries.
Are you saying Newt supports it? did not see that coming.
Hey blue,@7,Why wouldn’t countries have a choice about surrendering their sovereignty to be indentured slaves of a German dictatorship.Germany is the most hated nation in euroland,largely because of the same aspirations in WW 2 .I get your point if populations complied with the G20 austerity prescriptions of their technocratic leaders,but I sincerely believe the entire euro zone will be swimming in blood before that happens.Moreover ,I believe these technocrats already fear for their lives,and hence are encouraging accountability be externalized to a centralized authority before austerity looting and plundering impoverish the targeted nations.
That’s kinda what I had in mind in 23 ABOVE.
I’ve said this before but the entire problem in Europe was predicted 20 years ago. See Pragmatic Capaitalism article by Cullen Roche who quotes a number of economists way back when.
That’s a little easier to imagine when you think about it. That’s exactly what our citizens are doing — except for OWS.
At times like this I think OWS is the only way out.
Goldman probably has life insurance policies on all the passengers.
Aha. Of course. I hadn’t thought of that!
and sold the lifeboats.
Hey econo,OWS has made a historic contribution,yet the majority already shared their sentiments,and if America was facing the same shock doctrine measures,I would make exactly the same case regarding a violent uprising here. We are routinely suckered by gradualism and incrementalism.but when the frog is thrown into boiling water it reacts forcefully.I would make the case that the horrors of austerity are coming to the fore and will be a greater agent for real change than progressives could even imagine .
You may be right.
Violent uprising? Possibly. But I can also imagine — possibly — a “Ding Dong the Witch is Dead” scenario. Once Goldman-Sachs and the rest of the rentiers are … ahem … liquidated, we Winkies can go back to running our own corner of Oz like we used to.
If I only had the brains to come up with some way to accomplish this. Any ideas? :-)
Bankers meet lamposts that will stop it , I nominate Jon Corzine .
where in the world is Jon Corzine
Why does it seem like we are in the middle of a Monty Python skit? This parrot is dead!
This is what brought on the French Revolution. The Dutch refused to recycle the monarchy’s debt. Not saying this will happen again, and the only thing left to nationalize (whoops, I meant privatize) is the social security fund, but you never know.
Looks to me that the Krauts are bailing on the euro. This will not go down well in France.
Except this time not on purpose. This is more like World War One, where everybody gets to share the blame.
How are they bailing?
I just hope this gets resolved soon, not stretched out over 2-5 years as Roubini says could happen. It’s not only stressful for Europeans, but for much of the world.
A game now played by Ph.D’s in mathematical and astro-physics. They couldn’t get decent jobs in what they were trained for, so they became quants. It seemed like a good idea at the time.
They apparently have contingency plans for quitting the euro as it now stands. The German government believes that the German electorate is not prepared to subsidize the failing parts of Europe, even though the German banks are into this up to their armpits. Ms Merkel probably is not ill-willed, but she is responding to what she thinks is her constituency. I would imagine that her economic intuition is probably on the level of Obama’s, which does not bode well.
LOL
so true – I was hired as a quant in one job – but when I actually pushed hard, and the idea was not followed, and it was shown that it would have made money – well the head of investments needed change – and I was into a new job title. Easy to laugh now – but sure miss the money that might have been.
Italy alone has $2.5 trillion yes trillion in bond debt. (Roughly 67% of USA federal budget)
That is too funny for words. This week the nummy starts up military threats to China…more wars?
Any predictions on USD/Euro forex?
Der Spiegel had an article out today, warning that Germany is not as stable a place for investments as many think. How long can the dam hold before we’re all engulfed in another catastrophe?
I’m afraid we’ll find out. There’s more obstinance and a “get used to it” from over there.
This morning Germany reiterated that there will be no common Eurobonds with shared risks among the members. This time economics minister Rosler was added to the Merkel / Schaeuble twins to drive the point home, and it was timed shortly before a conclave including Sarkozy and Monti. The context was that bringing up such an idea yet again was a waste of time, and it would not happen.
Any German lawmakers’ discussions about such bonds seem to be theoretical and in the context of treaty/zone changes well into the future, and with guarantees for well heeled backers of such bonds. In other words, nobody should hold his breath.
A good WSJ piece today about the ongoing mess:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204630904577057642190392170.html
Every time there is a major Euro crisis, U.S. Treasury yields go significantly down. Extrapolating this, we are heading to a situation where a financially stable U.S. Treasury is asked to bail out the European banks. For Congress to approve this as it did TARP, however, will not be the cream puff political task it was in 2008. The public is now aroused and, through OWS, organized.
Maybe it will be done on the sly without Congress, and maybe the media won’t know what’s going on right away. Any help from the US that way will debunk the budget crisis here, sequestration. . . anything else the PTB have been telling us, all of it.
Treasury will do its thing. Keep both eyes on the pea.
And here’s another from Bloomberg: Germany Buys Itself First-CLass Ticket on Titanic Gulp.