It looks like Dexia Bank will be the first large European bank to fall to speculation about losses on its loans to Greece, and as David Dayen notes, this may be a sign of things to come. Dexia is partly owned by the Belgian Government and partly by the French Government, the result of a 2008 bailout. Private investors own the rest of the shares.
The two governments issued a statement saying they “… will take all necessary measures to ensure the safety of depositors and creditors. To this end, they undertake to guarantee to bring their financing raised by Dexia.”
The current plan is that the Belgian government will take on the retail bank, which is largely in Belgium, perhaps with a view to selling it. The French Government will fold the French bank into La Banque Postale and the Caisse des Depots et Consignations, both of which are owned by the French government. There will be nothing for shareholders, according to one analyst.
The current price for the stock values the equity at about €1.96 billion, compared to the stated net worth of €6.9 billion. The worrisome part is that the bank wrote off 20 percent of its Greek debt, but still has about €3.4 billion on its books, and the expected losses now look like 60 percent instead of the 20 percent that Dexia took, implying another €2.55 billion loss. That should leave an large equity cushion of €4.35 billion, but at least one analyst thinks that there is no money for shareholders. A note from Nomura Securities, quoted extensively by Zerohedge, says that while the senior debt may be paid in full, lower-ranking debt may not.
If there is no money for minority shareholders or lower-ranking creditors, the current balance sheet is really wrong. That has a strong flavor of Lehman Brothers, which showed an enormous net worth immediately before filing bankruptcy. This is another sign that no one trusts reports from accountants any more. It is also a sign that the European stress tests were weak. Dexia passed in the most recent round of tests. [cont'd]
Weaknesses in financial regulation were not repaired, either here or in Europe. We continue to rely on the accounting profession and its interpretation of a set of rules created by a mish-mash of legislative intrusion and captured regulators. Those rules are not working, and investors don’t have any reason to trust them. That is a particular problem for small investors, the ones Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is trying to force into the stock market, because they really don’t have any way to guess just how wrong financial statements are.
Of course, like lawyers, accountants long ago sold off their professional independence for a pot of gold, and are now part of the crowd of people ready to say anything that won’t hurt them personally. They have no liability for false statements, and they depend on the kindness of corporations for their income. The SEC doesn’t regulate, and no one is willing to use criminal prosecution for anything. CPAs are just another failed institution, haunting us with their personal greed, their sneering at social responsibility, and their intellectual dishonesty.
It’s also a bad sign for the European Stress Tests, which appear to have been run on the Timothy Geithner plan: Pass/Fail, and no one fails. That means there isn’t any reason to assume that any other bank, here or in Europe, is both solvent and liquid, opening the door to more speculator attacks.
Finally, it’s a bad sign for taxpayers in Europe. Belgium and France are part of the Eurozone, so they aren’t sovereign in their own currencies. If they want to guarantee the short-term indebtedness of a restructured Dexia, it shows up on their balance sheets as a contingent liability. People adjust their expectations of the financial situation of the government by guessing at the probability that the government will have to perform on its guarantee.
That explains why the press is fixated on whether this will affect France’s AAA rating. Remember, if France has to make good on a guarantee, it has to borrow the money in Euros, and pay interest. That is a burden on French taxpayers. French bonds are falling against German bonds already.
There are no painless solutions. The only question is who will bear the pain. The US government is dominated by a financial oligarchy, (see Thirteen Bankers, by Simon Johnson and James Kwak) so we can assume it will be taxpayers who get slashed. At least in Europe, it looks like equity investors and maybe even some bondholders will take losses.




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Has the Belgian parliament ever formed a government? Earlier this year, it broke the record for the longest time a parliament failed to form one. The previous record, 248 days, was held by the Iraqi parliament.
And this bank passed the stress tests with flying colors, at least accouding to public announcements. Many here speculated that the stress tests were designed to let any too big to fail bank pass regardless.
I wonder if they’ll correct the values of the banks assets when they fold it or if they will permit the “rescue” banks to hold them on their books at the inflated value.
Boxturtle (Somebody isn’t clapping hard enough)
Thanks, mas. I think you have the situation nailed. Accountants are indeed a big part of the problem. One might ask why we can’t reform our Byzantine tax law. It seems obvious to me that it would put a lot of CPA’s out of work. Too bad, so sad. How many more dollars would be available to stimulate the economy if all those CPA dollars went into consumer spending instead? Would be a no-brainer, if there was no CPA lobby, IMO. Fuck ‘em, would be my position.
thanks for the “thirteen bankers” rec, into my amazon cart it went
“Of course, like lawyers, accountants long ago sold off their professional independence for a pot of gold, and are now part of the crowd of people ready to say anything that won’t hurt them personally.”
Yes, in deed … and in fact … now, what other “professional” groups might be said to have done the same thing, masaccio?
We are well beyond simple “fixes”.
Gotta luv that Bernanke, being so “astute” and all …
Thank you, masaccio, for the truth … it is a “commodity” much “shorted” of late,
DW
All across the world, the corrupt politicians, at the command of their masters, put private losses on the public’s shoulders. All the while the private investors still make their money. And the public sees none of it.
Why not nationalize the banks, examine the books, and hold the guilty accountable? … Well we all know the reasons for that.
The banksters learned their lessons after 1929. This time they walk away from the mess they created without any consequence.
Hope Europe’s voters do what Iceland’s did – tell the EU, IMF, and ECB to go f*ck themselves and make the banksters take the losses.
I have yet to see anybody explain for the public, the fact that the big European banks are not only saddled with sovereign debt of questionable worth, but also MBSs of questionable worth (toxic assets) sold to them by other banks, many of the sellers being big American banks.
The news is filled with weeping and gnashing of teeth over the sovereign debt of nations that is putting these Banks at risk, but is strangely quiet about the bogus MBSs they were sold by their cronies across the pond?
It looks to me as if there is a wide ranging conspiracy of silence surrounding the continuing impact of super-secret toxic assets still held by the world’s bankers, and the FED for that matter, and a concurrent hysteria over sovereign debt of nations.
Won’t somebody please explain what is known about the relative impact on the banks of these two categories of holdings?
It seems to me that the banks are attacking the sovereign nations because they are the only place they might be able to extort some money, as opposed to their banker buddies in the USA who are in trouble themselves and so could never make good on the difference between what they said they were selling, and what they actually sold.
The big banks, both here and Europe are avoiding suing each other because even if they were to win in court, the plaintiff cannot afford to pay up, OTOH, squeezing a sovereign nation just might result in some cash because citizens can be taxed, fired, cheated out of retirement, and run out of their homes by their bought-off governments.
The first domino falls…
That’s a good point. I checked the most recent financials of Dexia, which are at 12/31/10, so 9 months old. They report $14.3 billion in US RMBSs, marked down from the face value by about $4.4 billion. The language isn’t the same we use, but I think that represented the best estimate of total loss as of the close of the fiscal year.
Dexia reports that it had filed suit over RMBSs, but I can’t find a reference.
Dexia recently sued Deutsche Bank for $1 billion from something that looks like an Abacus transaction:
Thanks for the reply.
What I’d like to see, (I’m not demanding this of you in particular), is a Bank-by-Bank, side-by-side comparison, column A = RMBS related holdings, column B = Sovereign Debt.
I would guess there are at least some estimates of the toxic holdings of these crooks.
The banks are perpetrating a fraud on us, with the help of MSM, by lies of omission.
It appears to me as if they are committed to hiding the impact of their business as relates to their peers, and roasting everyone else.
To top it off, the tactic has the added bonus of creating the public perception that We The People caused their problems, be we Greek, or whatever nationality.
Remember that nations did not start failing until after the MOTU tanked the world economy, the tanked economy resulted in precipitous loss of tax revenues for the nations who are now being blamed.
Just more blame the victim.
Some years ago, I toiled in those sweatshops. The partners, hungry to obtain and/or retain clients, beat the shit out of their employees to keep the costs down. The difference between those low costs and the actual billings/collections goes right into the partners’ pockets. That’s the game. Yeah, the partners will say, “Make sure to record all your time,” but there’s a tacit understanding that you are most definitely not to do that. Either the employee works off the clock, or the work suffers…and many times both. And you don’t even want me to start on the two-bit whorehouse that the FASB has become.
Lest we forget, Dexia was the biggest borrower from the Fed’s trough during the bailout:
See article here.
Through July 10, 2010 (nearly 2 years later), Dexia had hit up the Fed for some $159b in total.
See here.
Thanks much.
From your linked article;
Translation;
“You have to understand, and this is all very embarassing, but we were scared shitless, and didn’t know what else to do…”
Why is it that when a regular sort of person goes to borrow from a bank, they are made to feel small, but when a bank goes to borrow … oh never mind.
Also, they always prefer the story to be about govt fuckups rather than bankers fuckups.
It’s important to remember that ultimately this is not just about spin; it’s about the cover-up of a multitude of crimes, starting with those perpetrated on investors at the time of securitization of all those mortgages.
While the worth of those securities may have been impacted negatively by the borrower’s default on individual underlying mortgages, prior to that, they were rendered absolutely worthless by the behavior of the parties issuing the MBS at origination because they broke the rules governing the securitization process.
The Banks committed fraud on the investors, the investors and the banks are hiding the facts, and meanwhile, because all of this behavior has left them insolvent, they are, with the help of our governments, extracting the cash necessary to cover their asses from the only source left, the people.
Shorter;
They’re trying to stay out of jail.
That’s a great summation. I wish more people understood it as clearly as you. I’m a lawyer and an S&P 500 futures trader, so I’ve known and been gnashing my teeth and pulling out my hair about it all for the last six years. Now I’m bald and wear dentures. Grrrrr!!
I’ll say. As did the Prez, in so many words:
Heh. We can only hope that Obama remembers that sentiment and turns it into a real, actionable campaign theme and rallies the populace accordingly.
Masacio,
I wonder if you’re aware of a guy named Zeus Yiamouyiannis?
He has a remarkable series of economic posts at Charles Hugh Smith’s site;
Of Two Minds dot com
1. http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan11/Zeus-one01-11.html
2. http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan11/Zeus-two01-11.html
3.http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan11/Zeus-three01-11.html
He has an incredible grip on our situation and its causes, which he has no problem explaining in straight forward language.
His posts are succinct and easy to read.
A sample from the third link;
Masaccio, I’m sorry about flubbing the spelling of your name sir.