Ben Bernanke, Chair of the Fed, gave a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming and told us that his big plan for helping the economy is to do nothing and hope Congress fixes it. Everything is fine, and soon we’ll be on the sunny side of the street.
… [T]he growth fundamentals of the United States do not appear to have been permanently altered by the shocks of the past four years.
The key word here is “permanently”. Eventually all the problems will go away. Of course, it will be a rough few years before that happens.
He tells us that the usual way out of slumps is release of pent-up demand, but can’t explain how that will happen any time soon. In previous recessions, the big driver of demand was the housing sector, but it’s a wreck. In the first quarter, 10.9 million homes were underwater, about 23% of homes with mortgages, a figure which hides the desperation in states like California, where 31% of the houses with mortgages are underwater, and Florida, where the figure is 46%.
He claims that the finance sector is in better shape, with improved capital structure, but doesn’t mention that Bank of America is struggling, and recently gave Warren Buffett a deal just like the one Goldman Sachs gave him in the depths of the Great Crash. He doesn’t look at European banks, with their massive exposure to sovereign debt, or the pile of credit default swaps on those banks.
He claims that credit availability is improved. Then he admits that the small business sector, with its “impaired balance sheets”, is excluded from credit.
Manufacturing is up a bit, and the trade deficit is down. He says this is because of “improved competitiveness of U.S. goods and services.” I can translate that into English: the dollar is weak, workers are paid less, and the persistently high price of fuel discourages long-distance shipping. How is that good, again?
Then he tells us that his near term plan is to do nothing.
As to the longer term, he says housing will come back some day. Households will improve their balance sheets, on their own, somehow, because the government and the Fed aren’t going to help. He says the banking sector is improving, and claims that they continue to provide “vital intermediation functions” when in fact lending is down and the bulk of profits come from selling derivatives and other crappy innovative financial products and trading in stocks, bonds and commodities.
The big problem he sees is the national debt.
As I have emphasized on previous occasions, without significant policy changes, the finances of the federal government will inevitably spiral out of control, risking severe economic and financial damage.1 The increasing fiscal burden that will be associated with the aging of the population and the ongoing rise in the costs of health care make prompt and decisive action in this area all the more critical. (Footnote omitted.)
He offers the usual Republican solutions to these fiscal problems: incentives to work and save, education, private capital formation, and R&D, and something really radical, public infrastructure. He doesn’t mention, but clearly implies that we have to cut Social Security and Medicare.
He seems not to know that there isn’t any reason for consumers to increase savings when interest rates are negative after inflation, a direct result of his policies to save the banking sector. He doesn’t mention that most households improve their balance sheets by paying down debt, which reduces demand.
He doesn’t seem to see that there are plenty of incentives to work, like the need to eat. We already provide massive subsidies for R&D. As to education, we already have a class of people who are hamstrung for life paying off student debt, while states increase tuition to cover the state funding of college and community colleges.
Finally, recognizing the justice of S&P’s criticism of congress in the debt ceiling debacle, he says it would help if Congress would act like adults. That’s it. His long-term plan is that Congress will manage fiscal policy wisely.
The message is clear. Rich people are doing fine. Anything the Fed does to help everyone else will hurt the rich, so the Fed will do nothing. The Obama administration has done nothing that would help the country if it would slightly impact the rich. Congress has done nothing that would help the country if it would slightly impact the rich. The only consistent thread in US economic policy is protecting the rich, including not prosecuting the crooks.
But remember, America, it’s your fault if you can’t get to the sunny side of the street to join Bernanke and his constituents.




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I’m never going to vote for Bernanke again!
We’re completely on our own now. Our former civilization, such as it was, has left the room.
Well, if they cannot do anything, they are useless.
If they are useless, then the institution should be shut down and done away with.
Ben Bernanke feels our pain.
The Fed fucked us even before the recession by encouraging a huge credit bubble that propped up the US economy for several decades. Now the bill has come due. The Fed can’t do anything. They screwed us and painted themselves into a corner.
And why should he do anything? He’s got his…not to worry.
From Link here
That is a fascinating interview; I thought about writing it up instead of doing this post.
Does he mention that our tax and regulatory policies have been directed toward driving trillions of dollars into the coffers of Fortune 500 companies who are sitting on it and refusing to release it into the economy?
Didn’t think so.
I think it is slowly becoming obvious to most of us. Greesnpan’s comment was a startling bit of candor. paraphrasing
The Tea Party and extreme libertarians in Congress (and it seems the extreme libertarian president) are hastening it by not even applying the temporary tweaks that might prolong dominance of Capitalism. FDR did.
This just dropped in my Truthout Box — the commentary is as interesting as the article:
. Link Here
For those of you who thought Bernanke would do something to improve this economy, you’re still not looking at the big picture. Let’s not forget, Mr. Bernanke is a REPUBLICAN. This is not a minor fact if you’ve been watching the GOP over the past 30 years. Beside the fact they want Obama and the Democrats out of power, they fundamentally believe a certain amount of unemployment bodes well for businesses’ profit line. The more the number of people in the available labor force, the smaller the wages.
I really wish people in this nation would do something Americans loathe to do; read, study history, and educate themselves about the issues and the people behind them. It might stop some of the small minded, naive, quite ignorant comments and articles I read on these websites. Anyone who has a keen knowledge of the Rich, Corporations, and the GOP since the time of FDR knows their only goal has been to destroy and The New Deal reforms, The Great Society programs, and the political party that put them into place.
Why Democrats, Progressives, Liberals, and anyone on the left can’t seem to accept this simple truth about the right, given all that we’ve seen in the last 30 years, starting with Ronald Reagan, is mistifying to me. Never has a political party been so obvious in their goals, and yet, with the advent of corporate money and power into the Democratic party, we play this game of shouldn’t we all just get along. This is Obama’s biggest failure; his unwillingness to recognize the enemy sitting across table from him.
There is a class war going on in America, but it didn’t just start with Obama’s presidency. This class war started with FDR and has continued until this day. Unfortunately, too many on the left refuse to acknowledge this war, while those on the right are in constant battle mode. Thus, we have the failures of the left, as the right marches on to winning this war. Too many on the left have adopted the language and policies of the right, including our President and too many in Congress. And yet, we common people out here who see clearly what’s going on continually question why our leaders don’t see it.
The Rich and Corporations became smarter. Instead of a direct attack on the New Deal and The Great Society, they instead began using the tactic of subterfuge to win the war. They convinced some on the left to see things their way, at least on economic policies. Greed is a powerful tool and they used it to their advantage to shift the balance of power. With the advent of the Democratic Leadership Council led by Bill Clinton, the New Democrat Coalition, and other Blue Dog Democrat groups, they have gotten a strong foothold on the only power that could thwart their attempt to restore the Gilded Age.
Now Progressives, who make up the largest faction of the Democratic party, are on the outside looking in, with very little, if any, political power in its own political party. Obama is just another manifestation of this new political movement of the Blue Dog Democrat. Why Progressives and Liberas, and those who still believe in the FDR, LBJ vision of America can’t see this is beyond me. The history is there if people simply take the time to read and study it.
We never needed that extraction-for-private-interests, system of private banks called the “Federal Reserve” anyway. They were brought in on Woodrow Wilson’s watch in 1913 and we should have shut them down ages ago.
Bernanke’s totally incompetent and stupid as a stone.
I tried to read his book of essays on the depression. It is so schlocky that I couldn’t read more than 2, out of perhaps 8. Just goes to show you how bad the academic economics work is that his piece of garbage would get him to head of economics dept at Princeton and a reputation for being an expert on the depression. Sold by PTB just like the Iraq war and deficit reduction. Zero reality behind any of the propaganda.
Well, technically, his job is to do something.
Dual mandate and whatnot.
But I forget, “Wall Street is their Main Street.” Silly me.
And factor in the worldwide corporate-financed ecological devastation the impacts borne by the poor and common people for the ultimate double-wammy. They are destroying the very commons that can support people at least at a subsistence level. Fewer revolutionaries…
A truly massive failure of government and representative democracy.
The distinction bet Rs & Ds is ridiculous anymore. The real distinction is bet PTB & the rest of us.
Bernanke is an utter failure as Fed President. But anyone else (short of someone like Janet Yellen or Alan Blinder) would have been an equal failure. When he says the ‘fundamentals’ are sound what he means is that if you take standard growth theory and add up the potential inputs, and put them together with the rate of productivity growth and the production function it looks pretty good. The problem is that we are nowhere near our potential, and nothing he learned in the 1980s when he was a student at MIT really taught him in his bones (as opposed to his head for passing exams) that demand failures can happen and are lethal in a term that anyone with any sense would consider long. There are a lot of failures out there, but among the greatest is the failure to teach grad students sensible macroeconomics that works instead of this dressed up welfare economics that currently passes for it.
So? ;) Sorry, guess I don’t expect much…
Very insightful post and you are correct people need to read and study what our history has been. Along with destroying the Democratic party and the New Deal is to establish cheap labor. When wages in the USA are equal to those of China etc the jobs will come back. The corporations will get their tax holiday (you know the one where they said it would be only a one time deal.) This is right out of Naomi Klein’s book. Your right it is crystal clear if you take the time to study it. My 2 cents.
I agree with comments on Bernanke’s inclinations and we probably should spend time on his role in getting us into this mess. But I’m not sure there is much the fed can do at this point. (It could, but won’t, start exercising it’s regulatory powers to benefit the common good rather than the elite. That would be an improvement, but wouldn’t produce much increase in demand.)
The monetarist solution to recession is lowering interest rates. The lower cost of borrowing gives people incentives to borrow to satisfy demand. But interest rates are, including inflation, close to zero, going out 10 years. The unemployed and people with mortgages under water aren’t likely to increase spending any time soon. What can the fed do? QE3 would be as effective as QE2. It drove down 10 yr. rates slightly. The excess currency drove up the stock market and commodity prices. The rest of the money went abroad. The impact on jobs was negligible.
At best monetary policy is an inefficient substitute for fiscal policy. In this case anything the fed does is likely to be worse than nothing.
These people have actually come to believe that banks and the finance sector are the beating heart of the economy, that money and debt are its blood, and that if we can keep the heart functioning it will eventually restore health to the rest of society. They think of themselves as priests and prophets managing the transactions between earth and heaven so that their own welfare and prosperity is to be considered first above all in terms of payments and privileges, so mere sinners must continually bring sacrifices to the temple to appease the gods and support the temple and its personnel.
I think in the old way of thinking banks were a service industry providing capital to productive business and industry, more or less like the electric company, a respectable and important piece of the economy but not divine.
Bernanke is the chief cardiologist of this hospital we are in, and he is saying that he has done all that he can do to repair this heart, the patient is stable, and all we can do is wait and see.
Hubris got them there. Ayn Rand is dead and they don’t know what to I actually almost agree that doing nothing is now a wise course. Unless we really understand and change to a labor centered system that encourages collaboration and some sense of the usefulness of obligations to the common good and determine to make the big changes — these tweaks of infrastructure and limiting the complete gutting of the entitlements will only delay the inevitable. But then I really hate to think of sudden radical change with all its chaos and usual bloodletting happening and have the Utopian hope it can be achieved gradually.
Yes, we suffer from a deficit of aggregate damand and not enough deficit. The fed cannot get us out of this, no matter what they do. This requires fiscal policy (spending or horror, more tax cuts). There is no substitute for it. Even though there is a sizable deficit now, it is not enough as people have what they call a balance sheet problem – - too much debt and they want to save and not spend. That also affect what they buy from imports.
Oil is, and will continue to pace recovery now and forever into the future. It will hold back GDP and employment unless and until we find a way to work around it. There is not enough oil under the ocean or in the tar sands to alter this dynamic. We have finally “arrived”.
I doubt the fed affects anything other than interest rates (which have been favorable). But they do have a pysho effect on markets. In the end though it is the real economy that will matter and not the fed.
When Obama talks about cuts, he is putting himself in the company of Cameron in the UK who is also seeing some problems these days. It is just freaking wrong, what more can you say.
Bernanke has his head in the Tar Sands.
I think the majority of economist suffer from cognitive dissonance. They cannot figure out the truth when it stares at them as they are ideologically wedded to their beliefs. Today, for example, only an idiot would say to reduce aggregate demand by cutting spending, yet they do so. But too many of them hold this magical belief that somehow the demand fairy will suddenly awaken and lead us out of this mess. Hoover wrote about it and Obama and summers believe it. YOu’ve heard it repeatedly.
Greenspan defecated and Bernanke was born. I’m sure he can come up with at least one more scheme to increase the wealth disparity.
The macro model that became current in the early 1980s was essentially a supply-side model that emphasized the importance of getting wages down. It was a rather stupid theoretical response to the inflation of the late 1970s and the deflation that followed Volcker’s drastic curtailment of the money supply. The model was (and remains) based on the spectre of inflationary expectation. The idea is that when inflation takes hold, both workers and employers factor it into the wage bargain, giving rise to a self-perpetuating cycle provided the monetary authorities ratify it by increasing the money supply enough to support the higher price level. Since there is no clear reason to have inflation higher than a few points above zero, and since really high inflation causes distortions (mostly through the tax code), the usual policy response to to try to bring down the inflation rate. But when this happens on the demand side, the continued inflationary expectations among workers causes wages to rise relative to prices, hence stagflation. So to keep this from happening, the government (central bank) has to purge the workers of their unrealistic expectations, which means imposing a bout of unemployment. About the only difference among economists in this context is whether the bout should be short, like ripping off a band-aid, or protracted, like getting into a cold lake for a swim.
This is essentially the conventional wisdom. It tends to downplay the real costs of the unemployment, and to my knowledge, no one has ever given an estimate of the presumed cost of the inflation this policy is intended to counter. In the end, what it comes down to is what has been posted above. Screw the workers to get the inflation down.
There are bells and wrinkles in this model that go way beyond what I’ve sketched out. It is a general theory that explains one event: the price shocks of the late 1970s, which were mainly, though not exclusively, driven by the oil embargoes. It is not a general theory of price levels that makes sense in periods of gentle inflation, which is what we have had for the last 20 years. It is a stupid theory in that context. It is also the only theory Bernanke and the crew at the Fed know. As a by-product, it also fits the reactionary world view.
Against a globalized, central bank system dominated by captured governments, multinational corporations, super rich individuals & their paid entourages, especially the former Fourth Estate, Main Street economies have no chance.
The bottom 95% of America is experiencing what the rest of the world has known since at least — the real meaning of the F in IMF.
It may be time to lose a war, and have the victor rebuild our U.S. industrial economy like post WW II’s Marshall Plan. It’s not going to happen on the nation’s current trajectory.
Except the price shocks of the 70s were the result of oil that went from like $2 to $40. It was the prime mover of the inflation. Economists can find any fantasy they want to say it was something else. There is inflation today in food and energy. But that is price rises due to supply shortages.
But the inflation police,as the deificit police will continue to track down their prey and we will all respond.
Maybe what we need to do is eliminate the fed reserve and combine it with the treasury so that we can control what those idiots do.
I would admonish madprogressive to disabuse himself of all these partisan distinctions,which are nothing more than greasy kid stuff that thwarts deep critical thinking,Bernanke and Greenspan are pubs who have served at the pleasure of virtual republicans,Clinton and Obama. Volcker was a dem and his untoward retension of high rates caused the deindustrialization of America.All Fed chiefs work first and foremost for the international banking cartel.That is a given.If such bankster loyalty were in question because of the dual mandate or patriotism or any national concern.then the banking lobby would block nomination. of the candidate.Bernanke created a stricture,likely at the behest of banksters,to choke off retail lending and pump trillions into international banking coffers.for wholesale lending.The big picture became very much clearer once I began viewing the international interests of Wall St. in treasonous contrast to the national interests of America.If we continue to vote for agents of Wall St. and its global free trade,then we further the grip of monopolistic fascism to wield the power of corporate governance until the tyranny of debt peonage is fully realized.
And he definitely doesn’t recognize that folks with credit card debt have a harder time paying down their debt when their interest rates are 12%-24% above the Fed target interest rate.
Oil prices with adjustments for inflation 1946 to present..
The bottom 95% of America is experiencing what the rest of the world has known for 60 years — the real meaning of the F in IMF.
But then, my friend, how would our banker friends make any money? I mean the fed rate on their deposits is just not enough.
Before he was Fed chair, Bernanke wrote a paper explaining a number of things the Fed could do in a liquidity trap. I don’t know if any of them would work, but it really doesn’t matter. The board of governors is full of inflation hawks, and apparently Bernanke thinks he can’t do more than he has done.
The idea of relying on congress or the President to act wisely is just silly.
There is no one left even trying to help average people.
Unfortunately that faction is highly concentrated in only a few Congressional Districts. Not enough to swing the Democratic caucus in the Congress.
So functionally until progressives have a more geographically distributed presence in one or more of the political parties (or a third party), we will continue to be ignored. Because of Congress, the President doesn’t matter on most domestic issues that the Congress has a say.
I would argue that the largest faction of the Democratic Party is fairly closely trailed by other factions. And that for some “progressive” Democratic politicians, progressivism is only a pose during campaigns and speeches.
Yeah, we really need inflation hawks now when we have commodity supply constraints on food and energy. I am absolutely certain they believe they can lower the price of commodities. And they can, just increase interest and then unemployment will go up. I wish I understood what they could do. I see nada, zippo.
Wages for workers were stopped cold, but wages for the bosses, bankers and administrators took off like a rocket when the income tax cuts for upper brackets went through. They sucked the cash out of their companies and stashed it offshore or used it to buy mansions and luxury goods. The idea was that they would take that money and re-invest it into the American economy for the benefit of all. Why didn’t that happen? How can we recapture that money and put if back into America? I’ll hang up now and listen to your answer, as they say on C-Span.
The big problem the man sees is the national debt. Imagine, here we have 16% unemployed and this guy thinks the big problem is the national debt or what might happen 20 years from now to finance the safety net. The debt is absolutley meaningless and to tell the truth the existence or NOT of a SS fund is also meaningless. What matters is our productive capacity at that time and how we want to allocate those resources. So, if we want a good future we should worry about things like education, technology and energy,not the SS fund or the debt. Once we buy into this meme we will lose by the force of their econnomic logic and the power of discounting, all of which is meaningless. Think on it, it will come to you.
Don’t worry, they’ll find a way to make a profit whether it’s through high frequency trading or leveraged derivatives or buying up foreclosed assets.
Yes. The general “do-nothing attitude for regular people” is pervasive with Obama and his people. It’s–”As long as the rich are doing well, then just stop complaining!”
Don’t be too mad at poor ole Ben. He just doesn’t want to be executed for treason.
Nah, he and the fed reserve should just go away as a waste of time and money, We actually paid for them to go on vacation out there in Jackson Hole. Let, good ole Timmy do it all.
They are all hiding.. out. Eating corndogs
Obama doesn’t recognize his enemy? Don’t be silly. The “left” is not just tactically impoverished. They’ve been marginalized by centrists and “pragmatists” for generations. Now the bill comes due.
The Bernanke crypto-strategy is of a piece. If he thinks austerity is wrong, he should denounce it a la FDR, or resign.
The problem with egotist, ideologically enslaved technocrats is they will pursue unsatisfactory policy on the excuse that no one has better chops. Garnish that charade with a little lesser-evilism (vs. consensus interests) and you have the now-standard betrayal.
Did Bernanke “study the Great Depression” for the purpose of sabotaging any such recovery? Or perhaps he confirmed that WWIII would provide no reprieve from deflation.
This guy is a traitor to the public.
In reply to Knut.
Traitor implies the betrayal of an allegiance:
“One who betrays one’s country, a cause, or a trust, especially one who commits treason.”
Bernanke, like Greenspan before him, displays absolute allegience to the country, cause & trust of the top 2% & corporations.
Just not to what’s left of our country, our cause, our trust.
In response to PPDCUS @ 47:
I’d like to see the confessions of those who should have anticipated these betrayals but thought they’d land in protected territory. When they claim betrayal don’t they rather mean they were conned?
But there are many who never had trust to be betrayed. Mistrust is one product this system excels at.
Not a lot of the public has grasped what goes on between the Fed and the big banks, and why the banks are “better capitalized” as Bernanke says. Let me summarize it:
1. the fed prints and lends money to the banks at .25% interest
2. the banks buy US treasuries that pay 3-4%
3. the banks keep the profits and pledge the treasuries as collateral for the free money loan
4. the citizens now pay the owner of the treasuries interest payments for the next 10-20-30 years depending on which treasuries the banks “own.”
THAT’S HOW AMERICA’S BANKS RECAPITALIZE. THEY TRANSFER WEALTH FROM YOU TO THEM.
-or sometimes,
1. the banks get bored with only making 3-4% profit on their treasuries they bought with the free loan they rec’d from the Fed
…so they rent empty oil tankers and stockpile oil in hopes of driving up the price of oil
So the fraudster bankers crash the economy, become broke themselves, take free loans from the citizens/taxpayers whose lives they ruined, and they buy a bunch of treasuries and oil, and makes the citizens pay them more money in interest payments and at the gas pump. So their original theft from the citizens is rewarded by the FED, and allows the bankers to again profit off the citizens.
So dispel the notion that the FED exists for any benefit for the citizens. The Fed is populated with bankers and former bankers, and usually an academic stooge like Bernanke, to fool the citizens. Look at the Fed’s “Board of Governors.” They’re all bankers. The country is run by bankers, not the president, not congress. The bankers run the country, and except for a few brief episodes in American history: FDR, Kennedy, the bankers have always run the country.
I agree with one of the previous posters, the best we can hope for now is that we get in a war, lose the war, and the people who conquer us institute an equitable form of government, like we did for Germany after WWII.
Max Keiser says Financial WWIII and the big set up:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJsZhAYWqI4&feature=player_embedded
Seems the reason that any resulting war would be fought has a lot to do with the complete disregard for law and justice. The government “pays up” in order to deflect international reaction (lawsuits and wars) from countries suffering the grievous injuries perpetrated on their people by our hustlers and gangsters and their mouthpieces in government. So when the world has finally had enough (think Russia, China, India) after watching EC..we will see their wrath- no doubt, but what makes you think it will be so kind?
Do not return R or D politicians to leadership. Let’s turn them all out on their asses and take our chances with new people who stand a chance at representing us.
Well, by the banks owning so many homes then it’ll be easier for the energy companies to get right of ways for the pipeline. And having access to every inch of land from Texas to Canada I can imagine they will be testing for all kinds of oils, gases and minerals all the way to Canada. Don’t seen right. They don’t own that land. But they will have all that info on it.