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Irene made landfall this morning in North Carolina, as predicted, and is slowly making her way up the east coast. While some belittle the storm as “only” a Category 1, you don’t hear that kind of pooh-poohing from the National Hurricane Center. From their 8AM EDT public advisory comes this list of hazards facing those on land:
WIND: . . . Tropical-storm-force winds should spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic Coast later this morning with hurricane conditions expected by this afternoon. Hurricane-force winds should spread northward through the hurricane warning area during the day. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New England tonight with hurricane conditions expected on Sunday.
STORM SURGE:. . . . Storm Surge . . . An extremely dangerous storm tide will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 9 feed above ground level in the hurricane warning area in North Carolina. . . including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 8 feet above ground level within the hurricane warning area from North Carolina/Virginia border northward to Cape Cod including southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay and its Tributaries. Near the coast . . . The surge will be accompanied by large . . . destructive . . . and life threatening waves. Storm surge values are very location-specific . . . and users are urged to consult products issued by their local national weather service officers.
RAINFALL: . . . Irene is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches . . . with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches . . . . From Eastern North Carolina northward through the Mid-Atlantic states into Eastern New York and Western New England. These rains could cause widespread flooding and life-threatening flash floods.
SURF: . . . Large swells generated by Irene are affecting portions of the coast of the Southeastern United States. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
TORNADOES: . . .Isolated tornadoes are possible over extreme eastern North Carolina today.
Given the size (not strength) of Irene, the combination of wind and rain will be something to watch carefully. Think about the stereotypical weathercaster standing on the beach, leaning into the wind. He or she can do that for a while, but then fatigue sets in. It’s hard to keep that up, and sooner or later, those relentless winds — even if they’re only Category 1 and not 3 or 4 — will take a toll on people, buildings, bridges, trees, and everything else in their path.
Add in the rains, and it’s even worse. Saturated ground means that trees are more vulnerable to being uprooted, since the roots don’t have something solid to hold on to. Downed trees and branches — not one or two, but thousands — mean closed roads, no power, and increased flooding.
Irene is nothing to sneeze at, and I hope the folks up the coast don’t look at “merely” Category 1 and blow off being prepared.
That said, I can’t help but think there’s a lot of news getting lost in the coverage of Irene. That’s not a knock on the media — we need to have good information about this storm to prepare for it — but rather a nod toward the cherished tradition of putting out bad news late on a Friday, so that it gets lost by the time Monday rolls around.
For folks with some really bad news that they want to get washed and blown away before anyone notices or it really takes root in the media, yesterday was a golden opportunity.
Sean O’Malley, the Roman Catholic Cardinal of Boston, clearly grasped this concept. I can imagine the train of thought: “OK, we have to release this list of clergy accused of being child abusers, but what’s the best way to do it? I know . . . let’s roll it out right when a major hurricane comes steaming up the East Coast. Sure, it will get some local coverage, and coverage in the RC press, but no national coverage at all. For them, it’ll be a one day story, if it gets mentioned at all.” Put me in the “too little” camp.
The State Department, too, seems to understand how Irene can wash away news of their final environmental impact statement on the Keystone XL tar sands oil pipeline. Released late on Friday, the EIS concluded (per the Washington Post) “there would be no significant impact to most resources along the proposed pipeline corridor.” Foggy Bottom is not all that far from the White House, and with all the protests this past week, I’m sure the State Department press folks are rather relieved that the storm is keeping everyone in DC occupied with things other than protesting. For a while, anyway.
Obviously these stories haven’t gone completely unnoticed, but they’re getting far less attention than they otherwise would have.
Three final thoughts:
(1) If you live (or are visiting) along the East Coast, like Cynthia Kouril, stay safe.
(2) I wonder what other stories are being blown away by the coverage of Irene? If you’ve got any stories you think are being missed, please put them and a link into the comments.
(3) If you live (or are visiting) along the East Coast, stay safe.
photo h/t: Genista
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No offense, but having lived along the coast for 60+ yrs. this so far is a non-event. I have friends in coastal N.C. that agree , its being way over hyped by panicky governments and a media that is addicted to turning everything into a Reality show.
It’s called insurance. Just because your house didn’t burn down last year doesn’t mean it was a bad decision to insure it. The inconvenience of evacuation is an insurance premium against a bad event. The scientists are making the call on the probability of that event. You think you can do better, then you should be at the weather bureau.
Yeah,I think it’s being oevrhyped, too. But I’m from the “better safe than sorry” school so i’d evacuate my ass if they asked me to.
hurricane force winds are not a nonevent
Trees falling can be the largest hazard with mildly strong winds when the soil is wet. Everyone stay safe and dry.
I would rather that seaglass were holding high office, than standing before a “blue-screen” as seaglass’ comments evidence rational, reasonable and humane concerns.
It is the over-hype which concerns not the wisdom of being prepared and paying attention.
Over-hype leads to panic, panicked “thinking”, panicked buying, panicked fleeing, and panicked responses.
Frankly, the public is showing much more reason and maturity in their decisions, as I see it, than certain media and political “types”. whose “concern”, one imagines may not be all that it is purported, or “hyped”, to be.
As Dylan said, “You don’t need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing …” only the foolish are paying no attention, even the greedy are looking for “angles” …
Nonetheless, rational and considered warnings are necessary and good, but senseless fear-mongering never is conducive to reasoned responses or a sense of community.
Thank you, Peterr, for what I know and understand to be your sincere, reasonable, and reasoned concerns.
DW
I hear from people on the ground that it’s pouring and trees have blown down in Raleigh, NC, and that it’s raining in NYC now.
Irene is HUGE.
Judging by the pictures, it is a huge storm – very wide.
Could do some real damage in tunnels formed by tall buildings in NYC.
Huge is a good word, as this NASA image makes clear.
The Beer store owner thought the panic buying was hype but he wasn’t really complaining as he opened a second register at 11:30 am.
Heard about people having to move furniture in their vacation beach houses, boo-hoo.
Remember KATRINA. Blackwater mercenaries deployed into neighborhoods. Shock doctrine land grabs. Open season on people of color with calls going out to private gun clubs to come and set up free fire zones. White refugees portrayed as “finding food”, black refugees labeled looters and shot on sight. Four days without ANY government response, then the stormtroopers arrive with HK’s instead of the red cross with food and water.
I wonder who’s gonna go up the Jersey Shore murdering people after THIS storm?
Every one reading this ought to have the response to Katrina in the very front of their minds.
I trust that after things settle back down the MTA will have a detailed explanation to the public why they have to shut down transit service in the face of a 39 mph wind.
It doesn’t happen if it doesn’t happen to white folks in the NE. On the other hand good can come.. There was no Dust Bowl assistance until a big duster hit DC.
These areas of high population concentrations need the practice as the climate relentlessly becomes less and less felicitous.
I disagree.
The greatest problem is taking a Category 1 hurricane and turning it into a “monster”. The problem is that in the future, people will not heed warning of a true killer hurricane bearing down because they have experienced all the hoopla over Hurricane Irene.
My father served in the Red Cross in major disasters throughout the Western Hemisphere – including Hurricane Camille and the flooding associated with Hurricane Agnes. (Whose damage was flooding, not hurricane) Although he reserved his greatest contempt for those who refuse to evacuate – often placing the lives of emergency personnel at risk – he was almost as exasperated at those who exaggerated the threat for creating public apathy.
PS – Category I winds really are not that severe. People who live in wind regions of the world – the High Plains, Patagonia, the Hebrides – routinely deal with winds like this. (Granted, East Coasters are not as familiar with such winds) In North American hurricanes, the strongest winds are usually found only in the landward quadrant of the eyewall – due both to the directional speed of the hurricane and overwater convection. And not extending outward to any great degree. Even Category 1 winds are likely to be localized and short-lived.
Thanks for the info. I was being a bit tongue in cheek in my observations. I remember Camille was quite a lesson in the deadliness of hubris. But as someone who did live in the plains I also empathize a little with those who have so many warnings to run to the shelter for naught. You really can’t tell until the “last minute” just how bad or pinpoint where these storms will be. For a highly populated area last minute is simply not enough time.
I foresee as the climate changes these people who have in the past rarely faced big natural disasters will have to deal with evaluating and responding to many more real and potential huge storms.
I don’t have as much contempt for people who trust 150yr of storms housing to protect them as I do for the nuts out there surfing. One has already paid the price today..
One thing I’ll say: there’s been entirely too much singing in connection with this storm —and I’m a big fan of Cash, Cole, and Veloso in particular. But how would you like it if every time someone said your name, people regardless of competency would just lawnch themselves into some song? I’ll bet it’d make you pretty sour much of the time.*
We offer in illustration, and for one’s Saturday afternoon amusement, a small (4m25s) film clip. Here, a couple of guys working deep into the night and far from home happen on a place called Hap’s for a bit of dietary replenishment. Hap’s is pretty much Hapless at this hour, but in his(?) stead is a national treasure named Irene. Her chief of protocol —or is he just a simple humanitarian? So many questions.— is an elderly gent in a spiffy leather jacket, name of Jack (the man, that is). He fills our protagonists in on the etiquette:
Whether his alert did any good is left as an exercise for the viewer.
If you’ve ever been suddenly stranded somewhere, as by some unexpected weather, the atmosphere will seem familiar to you. In place of one of the eponymous songs, the soundtrack, or the jukebox, or Hap’s Diner’s own vibration, is to “Don’t Do Anything (I Wouldn’t Do).” And you might need to know that, despite this scene, the movie excerpted ain’t no comedy or lightly ironic viewing.
_____________
* Though it really is not a personal issue with me, I do have one of those first names, and one of those last names. Fortunately, I’ve never heard them in a song together, unlike some kin of mine. But if I get a hurricane any time soon and that ol’ juke box cranks up, I will let you all know.
The National Hurricane Center doesn’t think so. Their description of the type of damage from a Category 1 (74-95 mph sustained winds) is this (pdf):
Yes, people who live in windy regions of the world routinely deal with winds like this. OTOH, we’re not talking only about winds. The subways were ordered closed because of flooding concerns, not high winds. It’s the combination of wind, rain, and storm surge that produces not just structures being blown down, but flooded out or otherwise damaged.
As for “not extending outward to any great degree,” and being localized and shortlived, again the NHC believes otherwise. From their 2PM public advisory:
I’ll stick with the descriptions and statements of the NHC, thanks.
While the weather channel is praising the efforts of government officials for their evacuations and making a big deal about NYC stopping mass transit, Bloomberg stated at a news conference that inmates at Rikers Island will not be evacuated. Rikers is one of the small islands in NYC which is situated at the confluence of the Long Island Sound and the Harlem River; it sits to the northeast of LaGuardia airport. Thousands of inmates are incarcerated there.
This is an unconscionable act.
http://motherjones.com/mojo/2011/08/rikers-island-prisoners-irene
One would think after the big shake in Virginia and now Irene our Congress would reconsider their stand on global warming. Mother Nature is in Washington to testify on her own behalf.
Sadly, Obama and his fellow repubs will continue to rape, pillage, and plunder until they are actually picked up and thrown out to sea. Or, using the twisted logic of the thumpers, the supreme being is pissed and coming after them.
To my amateur eye, it really depends on where you live — population density, building codes, coastline configuration and just plain experience. The NE are babes in the woods. They do need all this extra preparation and instruction — but My Lord! do we have to hear constantly about their particular plight? And where was the President and his very serious planning panel when we were losing 40% of our crops from the drought in So. Ga? Out firing Shirley Sherrod I suppose.
Sorry, but the wind threat is simply not there.
Locations directly on the coast of North Carolina – such as Cape Hatteras – have received hurricane force winds, but locations even slightly inland on water have sustained winds well below hurricane strength without even gusts reaching 75 mph. And the storm is weakening.
Cape Hatteras, NC – - Wind – 59; Gust – 87
Elizabeth City, NC – - Wind – 45; Gust – 67
Norfolk, VA – - Wind – 40; Gust – 55
NOAA data
There is an apparent suggestion that the storm is weakening already.
Irene has clearly passed the North Carolina locations and wind speeds are currently diminishing at Norfolk. Sorry, but it more than borders on irresponsibility for the media to be screaming “Wolf!” so loudly.
Here is Southern Westchester.. 5 miles from Long Island Sound it is a normal rainy Saturday… People crowded the stores, emptied the shelves and so far it’s like watching grass grow.
By the time this reaches NYC it will be a blustery rainy experience and amount to no much. Let’s see what the storm surge amounts to.
The danger in all this coverage if no monster storm rears its head is that people the next time, which could be the big one or the time after that, will remember the anticlimactic rain storm and the hype and decide not to pay attention.
From Myrtle Beach, a coast-junkie seconds Seaglass about the storm being hyped, especially as it heads for the northern states with ever diminishing winds…
Which takes nothing away from Peterr’s sharp perception about the assholes using the storm to cover their release of news detrimental to them.
Carmody; yep. When the authorities are shouting “Leave! Leave! Leave!” and it turns out to be a 50 mph limb-stripper that threatens property very little, and life, likewise, then people will be very reluctant to bail out of their homes and hit the road.
Amen, having grown up along the Texas Gulf Coast, it is insane how much coverage a Category 1 storm is getting. Good God, the media makes it sound like its Katrina. So tired of the fearmongering.
I remember that as well as the African-American man sitting on stoop telling me about what he saw and what he managed to escape in NOLA.
I live on a large section of wooded property near Myrtle Beach, S.C. We were a lot closer to the center of Irene than is Raleigh.
NO trees came down that I’ve seen…a few limbs of about a 3-4 inch diameter, but they came off of rotten trees.
Are you saying this NHC description (and the rest quoted) is not accurate, that it’s hype?
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
Unless the storm took a nearly-unheard-of 90 degree turn to the west, we in Myrtle were always going to be on the weaker quadrant of it, and for once, the authorities got it right and didn’t even suggest an evacuation.
Of course that meant that the touron sheep could stick around for further shearing…no small consideration around here. :o)
I mean, this is not Fox News or MSNBC but the federal agency that deals with hurricanes.
That’s true. But with its population density, NYC has over 300,000 people living in areas that will be flooded if the storm surge that is predicted occurs. Many subway lines have to have water pumped out every day, so with this storm it could be a real mess. Mayor Bloomberg took a bad political hit last winter when his response to the blizzard was seen as inadequate, so obviously it’s CYA.
Not speaking for jamawani, but except for N.C. and Virginia, the storm IS hyped. According to NHC advisory 29A it’s still off the coast of N.C. and has dropped to 85 mph. If the core of it stays at sea, it MIGHT be able to sustain that strength for a while, but it’s already a marginal hurricane in wind speed, and the center is still hundreds of miles from New York. By the time it gets there it will likely be downgraded to a tropical storm.
The sat photos of the size of it are impressive but we need to remember that those are rain bands accompanied by moderate winds until you get relatively close to the center of the storm.
It’s a bit like the “terrrist” threat; the more terrrism, the more important become the people identifying the terrrists, and the more attention we need to give them, along with substantial sums of money in the case of NOAA, FEMA, etc.
Also, the Weather Channel has a huge vested interest in making people shit green nickels. The more they can do that, the more their ratings jump. Sorta-kinda like Nancy Grace: “Oh, God! Another beautiful, blue-eyed caucasian has disappeared.”, precisely as a city of pronounced “color”, New Orleans, was practically being annihilated, due largely to government neglect from George Bush and his administration.
“…this is not FoxNews or CNN but the federal agency that deals with hurricanes…”
Right, and it’s a branch of NOAA, which essentially fulfilled the role of a trained parrot for British Petroleum, in the GOM disaster. And which, as I pointed out, was at great pains to stop the research and release of evidence about the existence of a huge oil plume under the surface of the GOM.
Assuming that those people are always motivated by great concern for the truth is, based on their track record, not a good idea.
The only news you all seem to pass over is the pederasts. This is endemic and the church only one part of a global elite group. Why do you suppose it is always eventually quashed. It goes on just below the surface right before your eyes.
But I will leave it to you to look and not look away.
Do they have any more cred than the federal agency that deals with oil spills? That was almost an Abbot and Costello set-up.
I mean, the CIA is a government agency that deals with intelligence, right? How’s its credibility lately?
I can’t wait for the story tonight, “Was Irene overhyped?” “Were US resources squandered for such a weak storm?” “Did the media overreact?”
So Pedro?
Whatcha say?
NOAA is keeping hurricane definition even though they state that sustained winds “approach 80 mph”. And it is speeding up and it is half over land and it is getting into cooler water. Come on, now.
Plus its storm surge has been minimal.
Plus its rain has been moderate.
Yeah there have been a few locations with heavy rain –
But most places report moderate rainfall for a hurricane – 6-8 inches.
And there is a dry line over the Appalachians – so won’t be an Agnes.
So in every way possible, it is a pipsqueak.
A pipsqueak that has dominated the news and wseather for days.
And people will remember the “false” warnings.
Extremely irresponsible.
Moderate?
Storm surge? From the NHC’s 9PM ET update:
But those record levels are all hype, right?
And rainfall? From the NHC:
To you, it may be a pipsqueak. Bully for you. You’re tough. Congratulations.
But to the folks living through it, without power and with trees coming down around them, it’s a big deal.
You fail to understand.
I do not discount what is happening to people on the East Coast.
And I certainly do not discount those who have lost their lives.
BUT IT IS IN NO WAY A MAJOR HURRICANE.
And to say so jeopardizes many in the future who WILL face a major hurricane.
PS – Atlantic City – - wind – 36mph; gust – 51mph.
That is not unlike a thunderstorm –
which will bring down branches and old trees.
Norfolk only gor about 5 inches of precip.
It doesn’t help when the weather station in New Bern has its anemometer go down at less than hurricane force winds and the precipitation gauge at Cherry Point register only a few hundredths. (NOAA admits that its automated precip gauges “underreport” rain and snow in wind conditions.)
PPS – Looking at how many stations have missing data during the middle of the storm – I think a more important issue is the robustness of present weather equipment. During Camille, an anenomenter registered up to 172 mph before breaking. And the new precip gauges are pathetic. How can you report accurately if you have faulty and/or incorrect data?