There is a review of the book in today’s Washington Post. The premise that Professor Gilligan lays out is not based on numbers of people killed in wars and such, but rather then number of homicides and suicides.
There has been a long correlation between the two types of death. When murders go up so do suicides, and that is what the author started out looking at. He put together a list showing the numbers of suicides and homicides in the United States from 1900 to 2007 and started to study the data.
In his book he says:
“I saw three large, sudden, and prolonged increases and decreases in these measures of lethal violence, which reached a peak and were then followed by equally dramatic decreases.”
These increases happened during Republican Presidential administrations, with the peak being right around the last year of the administration, and the decreases hit their nadir around the last year of Democratic administrations. Professor Gilligan says that he used the same statistical analysis method that correlated smoking to lung cancer.
Okay, now I have not read the book nor had a chance to look at the study methodology but there seems like a lot of things that could affect this data and I am not at all sure that there might not be factors that he did not control for. As much as I’d love it as another example that Republicans are truly, deeply and madly bad for the nation when they get the White House, this seems a little far fetched.
After all correlation is not causality, if it were we’d just have to get a bunch more pirates and we’d have solved global warming (when there were swarms of pirates there was no global warming, now that we don’t have many the planet is warming, QED a lack of pirates causes global warming. /snark).
Gilligan seems to be saying that there is a correlation between the despair of suicides and there thinking there is only one way out and the social and economic policies of the Republicans. The gods greater and lesser know that Republicans are so dumb sometimes that I want to open a vein but this kind of macro correlation strikes me as too neat.
Are there really that many people who are so on the edge of destroying themselves that a small change in the perceived policy (it has to be perceived since the shift seems to happen almost immediately after one party or the other taking power) actually pushes them over the edge?
I am not saying that Prof Gilligan is wrong, but I wonder if he has done all the research needed to make such an explosive claim?
So, what is on your minds tonight Firedogs? The floor is yours!



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Best Catch of the week! I assume your pushing for an FDL book club date?
I wouldn’t say that Republican presidents make me suicidal, although I kinda wish Obama had never been born.
After all correlation is not causality,
Any links between the drop in wages, workers living standards, good jobs, total jobs period, financial bubbles bursting and of course war and which of these factors set off the most suicide.
Also culture, race, anti gay, anti woman hate were those factors studied?
Accidental death in police custody during periods like the crack epidemic, Senator McCathy’s Red Scare etc.
Data from 1900 until now makes it seem to me that causality can’t be explained as random.
Obama might be throwing off those numbers I wonder how suicides are trending now under Obama?
Well since we have a stealth Republican President, Gilligan’s numbers might just boil down to policy rather than label – which would make sense. But one would have to measure the dead after Obama…
Did Gilligan ask The Professor or Ginger or MaryAnne what they thought?
Which GOP President was the worse also suicides even now are under reported but were more likely to be covered up in the past how was that problem solved.
I’m perfectly willing to accept the professor’s idea. The R’s make me think of tall buildings and the Golden Gate Bridge.
…
… …
… … … and when what was widely presumed to be a sample from set A turns out in action to actually be a sample from set B?
Considering the current occupant of the oval pffice the scenario outlined seems both limited and incomplete.
The Dems are dead to me.
Exactly. Hopelessness was usually associated with lean, mean times. And usually lean, mean times happened because of a Republican administration. Not anymore. This man in the WH is causing the deaths of many innocent people either through war or lack of health care or, perhaps, even suicide.
Seems to me the suicide rate will climb with this president and his policy. The sheer numbers of folks who’ve been long terms jobless with no end in sight. In fact it’s going to get much worse before it ever gets better. If it ever does.
Apparently Gilligan is the Professor. Scary thought.
I wondered who’d have the first joke about that! Good one
more military/vet suicides than ever before
Slightly OT… Vets win PTSD settlement… However, on another note…! Common antipsychotic no help to vets with PTSD… 8-(
cuts to medicare
maybe they should legalize pot,which does help
*heh* It’s worked so far for my 100% PTSD’d Nam Era Stepdad…! ;-)
Of course risperidone doesn’t help. It is for psychosis. PTSD is not a psychosis. Idiot mind control freaks!
Your basic death panel. Poverty.
Thanks. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go build a hybrid car out of bamboo and coconuts.
Anybody else think Arianna was spot on on O’D tonite?
A racial breakdown of suicides that includes the latest Obama data would be very interesting.
*heh* Plenty of that right nearby, EDP…! ;-)
I met one today at the Giants game today(Giants 8-1 win!!!)he served two tours in Iraq including the invasion.. His job was convoy protection in a Humvee… He is finally getting treatment for PTSD.. He thought he could do it on his own and that all his memories and such were just normal… but.. he realized he need help… Sure glad he is, I said to him Welcome Home and thanks for his service.. I also related to him about people who I have known who served in combat and how it affected him… Made my day to have had a conversation with him…
If we have a Republican President in 2012, I put the onus squarely on Obama and the Dems. Rather than giving people hope, they gave them the shaft. Rather than standing up for principle, they accepted the Republicans lack of same. Rather than fighting for the down-trodden, they worship the elite.
If Obama had listened to the people instead of his advisors (that is, if Obama had been a true “leader”), the landscape for both the present and the future would be far different, and far better, than it is now.
The Dems keep getting their teeth knocked out and their asses kicked, and they keep re-upping the same strategy. Change and hope, my ass.
Frankly, I’ve always wondered why more people DON’T want to commit suicide, just futility-of-existence-wise, forget whatever politics and times. Heck, if there was a quick easy foolproof way to blow this psycho horror popstand, I’d be first in line myself. Not that I’m ungrateful for the music fun loves laffs.
Anyway, another topic.
Politically I think we’re just in completely uncharted territory anymore.
good on ya!
sadlyyes!
cant stomach either of them,or any media darlings
I believe President Obama will perform adequately in the fourth Bush term.
Made my day to have had a conversation with him…
Out-f*cking-standing, nahant…! Mahalo…! I’ve had a similar conversation with some of my ARNG Buds that did a few tours in Iraq…! *g*
“Many can’t go there; and many would rather die.”
“If they would rather die,” said Scrooge, “they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population. Besides — excuse me — I don’t know that.”
“But you might know it,” observed the gentleman.
“It’s not my business,” Scrooge returned. “It’s enough for a man to understand his own business, and not to interfere with other people’s. Mine occupies me constantly. Good afternoon, gentlemen!”
According to a recent book I read: The Spirit Level (Pickett and Wilkinson) this would make sense since in a more divisive and unequal societal climate – more nasty stuff happens.
Baaah! BAAAAH!!!!!! Fuck ‘em all!!! FUCK ‘EM ALL, I SAY!!!!!!!!!
Me either. I do respect Arianna’s business acumen so I think she understands just how deeply wounded our economy is and will be by this recent agreement. For once Arianna was not the cliched eye batting celebrity. She seemed to expose some of the authentic sadness and disappointment. But I thought John Edwards was cool. So take it with a grain of salt.
i think of Dickens,Orwell,and Huxley way too much
oh and Smedly Butler too
g nite all peace
*heh* I’ll put my life on the line for a ‘noble cause’…! However, I’ve since learned how to discern what is truly a noble cause, and what is not…! ;-)
Hey, CTut, found some Hot Tuna tonight. Put on some headphones and zoned out. Oh Jesus… memories. THOSE were the days.
peace. good night
Something I will always remember..
I don’t see this as far-fetched at all.
An Administration is characterized by its weltangschung, its worldview – and let’s face it, the goopers see a violent world full of ‘others’ that requires forcefully fighting to keep in-line.
So, during Republican Administrations, the perceptual lens dictates violent action, which manifests as increases in homicide and suicide – I can buy that.
The impact of worldview is powerful. When I was young and studying American History in 5th grade, I wanted to know how many slaves there were in the South – my family is from South Carolina. I checked-out ‘slavery’ in the encyclopedia, and was shocked, shocked I tell you, to discover that of the 8 million Southerners in 1860, 4 million of them were slaves! Half!
So, I rushed over to my Grandfather, who was rocking on the porch that over-looked a long and deep field that had, until recently, been ‘tenent’ farmed by black share-cropers, and I asked him, “At the start of the Civil War, how many of the 8 million Southerners were black?”
He looked off far across the field for a moment or two, like it was the first time he had ever considered it, and said, “Well, of the 8 total, I reckon there must have been something like 6, maybe 7 million of ‘em.”
Actually it may correlate with stock market returns which statistically are significantly higher (16.5%) under Democratic administrations than Republican ones. Pedro Santa-Clara and Rossen Valkanov published the results of their work in “The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market,” which was featured in The Journal of Finance in October of 2003. It makes sense that better economic conditions as represented by stock market returns would lead to lower suicide rates.
Unfortunately, I have to agree.
He just keeps on keeping on…
“There are two fairly standard approaches to political power used by those who seek it. Some seek power with the assumption that the citizenry are the source of legitimacy and are to be treated with respect. Others concentrate on identifying whatever insecurities there are within the citizenry and on exploiting them.” –John Ralston Saul, “Reflections of a Siamese Twin”
Because it appears that Reps tend to be of the latter variety, their anxiety-causing exploitation, fear-mongering and reduction of the world into oppositional dichotomies may have an effect on violence. Such an approach to dealing with the populace tends not to instill calm, confidence and happiness. (Unfortunately, Dems have taken up this tactic lately with their lesser-of-two-evils nonsense, especially in regard to bashing third parties.)
Or perhaps there is as much validity and importance here as that older study that showed how women’s hemlines rose and fell depending on what party was in the WH.
Just one more beer and you can go to a much deserved rest. Remember that tomorrow will be more of the same, and you have to conserve your strength.
I tuned into my Guy Mitchell on Pandora and partied out (at my obvious age, that means I didn’t fall asleep). THOSE were the days.
But, good night none the less…
*heh* The BBC is reporting that the Indian Parliament is debating an ‘Anti-Corruption’ Bill, today…! Many are saying it’s some mighty weak Pekoe tea…! ;-)
Pleasant Dreams, Sleepyheads…! *g*
Trust me when I say, that’s like our reps debating an anti-lobbying bill.
Well here’s hoping things get better. For you. For me. For all of us. For this country. For the world.
Sorry, that’s all I got.
No kidding. Learn. Here.
http://soprweb.senate.gov/index.cfm?event=choosefields
Play with this. Check the boxes “Client Name” and “Filing Year”:
On the next screen type in “chamber of commerce” and in the year field, from the drop down choose “2010″
Observe results. Click on any individual ones to see pdf’s of lobby registrations.
Bill, I will ask you a rude question, and expect a rude response, as that is usually your style, even though you often say “the floor is yours” but then piss on anyone who disagrees with you.
So, is Obama a Democratic president or a Republican president?
Holy Sh*rt…! Aloha, VG…! It’s been far too long…! *g*
*heh* Having fun, Kelly…? ;-)
Hey CTut. I read. I rarely comment. Aloha to you too, and I mean that sincerely. At least someone remembers me! LOL!
Fun? FUN?? FUN????
Horror! All Americans should get data hip and flip through this fucker. OMG.
I’ve always appreciated your input, Dewdette…! *g*
I don’t. That was an untrue and uncalled for indictment of Bill, and I think it was shitty on her part.
I do look forward to FDL’s ‘app’ appearance…! ;-)
Well, thanks muchly. We been around these parts a good long time.
I guess you and I have not read the same Engor posts. Or read them in the same way. He will say “the floor is yours”, and then attack commenters in ways that would have gotten him a stern warning about attacking commenters from mods, back in the day where there were mods. If he were not “part” of FDL, but a mere random commenter, then many of his attacks on people and their comments would have gotten a stern warning from the mods. I really have seen a double standard apply to his comments and to yours.
I don’t see an ‘untrue and uncalled for indictment of Bill,’…! Not thrilled with tenor, but, yes… “…is Obama a Democratic president or a Republican president?”
First, I have NOT read the book.
I do not know the details.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Gilligan
“James Gilligan is an American psychiatrist and author, husband of Carol Gilligan and best known for his series of books entitled Violence, where he draws on 25 years of work in the American prison system to describe the motivation and causes behind violent behaviour. During his career, Gilligan has served as director for the Bridgewater State Hospital for the criminally insane, director of mental health for the Massachusetts prison system and President of the International Association for Forensic Psychotherapy. He now lectures at the Department of Psychiatry, New York University.”
So not a nut-job.
Of course any scientist is going to ask have you been published (ON THIS WORK, OR THE SUPPORTING MATERIAL) in a peer-reviewed journal.
And yes, I know how corrupt the journals are these days. I’m always ranting about it.
But it still needs to be asked for G’s sakes. If not, why not? If so, I would look at them.
Second, causality is a big one. Confounding variables anyone? Basically, his statistics, or whatever analysis he did, must show a causal effect or NOT. If not (which is OK if it does not) then what does it show EXACTLY? I don’t want the non-science BS. Bad enough it permeates science already.
So what does it show exactly is the question I would ask when reading his work. Science is not some empirical math like 2+2=4. It doesn’t work like that. But understanding that, one can then ask, what does it show exactly.
This guys a psychiatrist, meaning he went to med school (vs a psychologist). One is not better than the other. But they are different in their training. And must be accounted for in the thought process/analysis of his work.
————-
Also note that psychiatry is a very hands-on and individualistic science. It is not cookie-cutter or simple by any means.
So what’s up with suicide? I will attempt to simplify for this context.
On one side the survival instinct. Now with animals it’s pretty simple. They will survive or die trying. No higher brain function to get in the way. Or another perspective, they don’t really know how bad it is, and like simpletons, will continue no matter what, including if the chips are stacked against them, or even if fighting means losing a lot.
So one hand they fight no matter what. On the other hand, they’re too “stupid” to know any “better”. Both perspectives are equally valid.
The other side is life is shite sometimes. You can go into all the details and statistics, but if you ever talked to a person contemplating suicide, then that’s what it boils down to (and incidentally what they usually say).
Women ATTEMPT suicide more than men. But men are usually more likely to SUCCEED. Thus, by definition, those who attempt but do not succeed are grouped into the “cry for help” category, UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE. Which is important to distinguish and one of the first things done after the attempt.
This is another case of women being “smarter” than men. (Bear with me.) Women succeed MUCH LESS than men. Thus through a purely genetic or cultural predisposition, they usually live. Also it calls attention to the shite, which if “solvable”, usually is after attention is called to it. (point to the ladies, and no I’m not snarking or kidding)
So when does someone do “it”? It’s a threshold thing. Life’s shite must be so bad it overwhelms the survival instinct. Now the survival instinct ain’t a pushover. It fights for life before, during (ie. hesitation and “trial cuts”), and after the attempt.
It’s hard to explain that moment when they choose. You have to look into their eyes. It’s a long battle in their head. When that moment comes, you will see hopelessness, ie. no way out. But one thing that is also there is the apathy, ie. they don’t care about living OR dying. There’s a deadness in their eyes. And if you look deeper, there’s nothing there. It’s all burnt away, ie. scorched earth after the battle in their mind.
Now you may also see a cold “logic” of this is their best move. Ie. they say they want to die. WRONG!!! No body wants to die. Not even them. What they’re saying is it’s easier for them to die than to go on.
It’s a threshold thing.
I haven’t gone into detail about the corresponding psychological problems with suicide. They can either exacerbate or be even caused by these suicidal ideations (yes that’s he word, implying they idealize it, ie. it’s their escape, their freedom from torment).
Many suicidal people have significant psychological problems caused by their shitey lives, which also is causing their suicidal ideas. Including psychosis!!! Psychosis means you have a break with reality. It means you thought processes are all Fed up (excuse the lay term). You don’t have to hear voices or see things. But if in you’re mind 2+2=5, … you get the point. The thought processes are all Fed up.
Also note there is SIGNIFICANT changes in brain chemistry. I’m talking about big time. The brain’s primary function is to communicate, with itself and the rest of the body. All those higher cognitive functions we are, is due to communication in the brain. Which is due to brain chemistry. Meaning brain chemistry IS the brain.
Imagine you threw in some laundry. Started it and walked away. Then I cam along and took a pee in it. Then a took a major dump it. (apologies for the imagery). Are your clothes going to come out clean?
That’s what happens in the brain with suicidal ideation and the suicide process. That’s what happened to their brain. No one, and I mean no one, can operate normally if there’s that much shite in the brain. It messes up the chemistry, the communication, higher cognitive function, and even lower cognitive function.
That’s why depression and other psychiatric issues are so major. It’s not that these folks are just “sad”. Their brains are all manner of Fed up. It’s a very complicated issue with many factors involved. Sadly it is one that is often down-played (psychiatry and psychiatric issues in general).
PTSD. Rape. Child abuse (physical and sexual). Homelessness (yup, there’s a certain percentage of homeless people who will “crack” under the pressure; the longer you’re homeless, the higher chance it could happen to you). Poverty (stress at such high levels on a daily basis for life will eventually push you over and “crack” you like a twig).
Anyway, my point is that it’s actually very complicated.
Also, note that the above stressful situations MAY!!! cause a change in brain chemistry AND MAY cause a level of ALTERED MENTAL STATUS. Drugs given to treat these issues attempt to “correct” the chemistry. Thus although pot may help some, there is anecdotal evidence that pot may indeed aggravate some of these situations. Thus, it is NOT, I REPEAT NOT, recommended for any psychological problem.
Could pot help? Sure. But since they prevent any decent studies being done, it’s hard to say. Yes, there is anecdotal evidence it can help, and anecdotal evidence it can do harm. Remember, PTSD and other issues may be accompanied by more than one issue. Throwing pot into this is thus CAUTIONED.
thanks.
I’m still laughing at our one liner: “Did Gilligan ask The Professor or Ginger or MaryAnne what they thought?”
BTW, Mary Anne so much hotter.
Hey VG, I don’t know you, but I’ve had one or two words with someone else on this site, NOT Bill.
But it was just twice and no biggie.
I let that shite slide. No problems.
Obama is the plutocrat’s president.
everything is black
No sun
No moon
No stars
My kids don’t want to hear it
There is no one to talk to
I just moved
Know nobody
Is this depression
I’d be guessing
Bad politics, bad people, willful bad judgement, is just a part
Of what’s coming
We will soon be ruled with iron fist
Laugh if you want
They are arresting children’s lemonade stands
Stolen all your money
Torture the helpless in foreign lands
How long before that is your land your home
Yea this is depression
On the other hand
I made a beautiful walking stick today
Uncoiled Ouroboros
I walk the artists way
knowing someday
The bastards day will be an end
Vedic way
Satya say
The author of this article states “… I have not read the book nor had a chance to look at the study methodology…” yet they are qualified to write a highly critical article on it? Give me a break! Firedoglake is not the appropriate place to publish this. I’m disappointed in them that they did. Another blog would have been more suitable–perhaps one which will print anything without regard to its veracity.
I would expect the birth rate to drop precipitously as well. Should be showing up in the stats by this time next year.
was going to say the same thing;
since obama IS a republica (dressed in blue) it would be nice to see those stats for this republican’s administration
His database ends at 2007, before the last recession. If suicides and homicides have continued to increase each year since then (and a Google search indicates that murders increased in 2010 over 2009), then is the increase due to prolonged economic despair or the Republican presidency of Barack Bush?
A correction to my last post (#74). Murders were up in 2010 in some cities, but down 7.1% nationally since 2009. Even more astonishing, murders dropped 10% in the first half of 2009 (one of the biggest such drops in history) compared to the year before. So there is no correlation between murders increasing with economic distress, but there is one of them dropping when a Democrat is n the White House, even if he is a DINO.
See my post #75. I just looked at murders, but there were big, consecutive drops in 2009 and 2010, even though the economy was much worse.
According to the Marine Corps Times, suicides among Marines were down 29% in 2010 compared to 2009. The article implies they increased in 2009 compared to 2008.
http://www.marinecorpstimes.com/news/2011/01/marine-suicides-down-in-2010-010411w/
This piece seems a tad bit hyperbolic. Time is on our side for a complete take over of the corrupt capitalist system. The conservatives do us a favor by pointing out that Keynesianism is nothing but bull sh!t.Only a complete take over of the means of production will lead to justice.
Yeah, it worked so well for the Soviet Union. /s
The secret is not to “seize the means of production”… that is an outdated tactic that was designed for a time and a place that no longer exists and the parameters certainly do not apply in the U.S. now… or much of anywhere else for that matter.
The secret is to ensure that those with wealth and power are not allowed to utilize that wealth and power against those without it…. or against the elements of government that serves and protects those without wealth and power.
It is a somewhat more difficult task, to be sure, especially as we’re starting with a government that has been deeply corrupted in a deliberate campaign by the very plutocrats who trample the poor and who are bringing down the middle class in order to give it the same treatment.