While drafting this post, Jane Hamsher asked me to check on what reputable economists were saying about the underlying premises of the debt debate and the position S&P is taking about the risks of a US default. After reading her timeline and checking the Econ sites, here is what I found.
There doesn’t seem to be a sound basis for the current debt hysteria, or for S&P’s insistence on at least a $4 trillion down payment on debt reduction as a reasonable condition for maintaing a strong credit rating, any more than there is for the crackpot notion that a non-crazy US can be forced to default on its debt.
As every reputable economist keeps reminding us (see, e.g., James K. Galbraith, Joe Stiglitz, FT’s Martin Wolf, Peter Radford, Bruce Bartlett, Warren Mosler, etc), the US is not Greece and does not face its risk of default. Unlike Greece, the US has its own currency, and unlike Greece, its debt is denominated and would be paid in its own currency. It can create that currency at will. So the only way the US can be forced into default is if Congress and the President do something that would be insane, like refuse to raise the debt limit, and the President then refuse to use the Executive authority of the Constitution to prevent a default.
Further, the notion that the US is anywhere close to some theoretical or practical limit to its borrowing authority is questionable at best (more from Shiller and Krugman). It’s not supported by our own history nor the examples in other countries (e.g., Japan).
And we aren’t facing some out of control deficit crisis either. As Simon Johnson, James Kwak and others have pointed out, if the US simply allowed the Bush tax cuts to expire as scheduled, and we assumed other likely changes — some positive (less war), some negative (doc and AMT “fixes”) — to occur as expected, the US primary budget (excludes interest) would be in balance or surplus by 2021.
So there’s no looming debt crisis over that 10 year period. Rather, as many economists tell us, and today’s awful Commerce Department report tells us, the real “deficit” we face is a jobs and spending deficit, because were not spending enough to create or even move strongly towards full employment.
The problem in later decades is the escalation in private health care costs, which represent an economy-wide problem, not a separate Medicare crisis. Wanna fix that? Start with Medicare for All, not forcing seniors to wait two years longer.
The officers of S&P may have their own reasons for squeezing the Administration or wishing the debt-GDP ratio were lower — such as forcing Congress to cut spending on Social Security and Medicare and thus pushing the elderly into greater reliance on their favorite Wall Street clients and their privatized alternatives. But they don’t have a solid economic theory to support it nor do they have the rating competence or credibility (Mike Konczal; more from Krugman) to justify telling investors their own arbitrary ideological preferences should be the basis for assessing US default risks.
Whatever S&P’s agenda, it has nothing to do with avoiding default risks or putting the US on sound fiscal footing. It’s time the media and Congress started asking them what their political agenda is and whom it serves.



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if the US simply allowed the Bush tax cuts to expire…
You have the answer. S&P and the rich class don’t want their taxes to go up, and they would rather see tens of millions in America just die.
Our politicians are either bought or stupid, mostly the latter, because they listen to think tanks funded by the upper 1%.
your premise is that there is no crisis because the US will not dare default. Somehow, you choose to believe, the Congress OR the President will not allow default.
Really? Evidence?
I’m gonna venture a guess here
I am saying obama asked for their rating so he could do what he came to do, which would be to destroy our investments and take away those assets we are entitled through our investments
let’s take back the term “entitlement” please, we paid for these programs and we ARE entitled to our own assets
let’s take back that word as a start, whenever anyone uses the term “entitlement” as a perjurative let’s take the offence with “why would you want to eliminate the programs we invested and are entitled?”
let’s take control instead of acting on defense
good point, the president has deliberately precipitated this “crisis” all by himself, when extended bush’s redistribution of middle class assets marketed as “bush tax cuts for the wealthy” he KNEW he would be creating this very crisis
this is by design and it may very well be his intention is more “shock” so they can employ more “shock doctrine”
I say the former
Why would the S&P prefer the House Bill and its “cut, cap and balance”, which fails to identify a single program to cut, instead limiting total spending to a gradually declining percentage of the economy through 2021, with no guarantee that federal revenues will come anywhere close to those levels, meaning deficits are not controlled?
It appears the game is to prevent the tax increase needed to pay back the bonds sold to the Social Security Fund and used to fund the Bush tax cut for the rich.
They have to be stupid to allow themselves to be bought like they’ve been. So, they are both.
can’t agree, they can be stupid but they don’t have to be, they just have to be confident they will be allowed to retire with their acquired wealth
and it seems nobody is held to account when it comes to taking graft
I don’t think the word there is stupid, I think the word is brazen, though that doesn’t mean they aren’t stupid too
I believe we both said the same thing there;
Meanwhile I find out that we kill 2.2 pounds of fish to get the feed needed to grow and harvest 1 pound of fish farm raised fish.
How the hell did this got legs? – Oh, I know – vacuum harvesting the bottom, killing everything, is legal because folks like Reagan and Greenspan saw it as capitalism at its best – damn
I thought fish farms were a way to get around pollution and disruption of the oceans – and I find it is all the opposite. Fish farms make money because the cost of destroying the environment is not taken into account. Seems a lot like mountain top removal.
Sorry about going off topic – but there is so much to be disappointed about with this capitalist system with no regulations that Greenspan mid-wifed for the last 40 years.
Back to the debt limit dance – nothing here to see.
He who pays the piper calls the tune, right?
Who pays S&P? Do they have reasons for calling for this tune at this time?
The ratings agencies did a horrible job of rating the mortgage credit default swaps and the dangerous follow on bets. They did that because the Big Banksters paid them for those great, solid AAA ratings.
Is something like that happening now?
Who benefits?
This current kabuki theater is to the shock doctrine as “Abilify” is to a regular anti-depressant. If the policies implemented to take advantage of the economic meltdown aren’t working quickly enough to destroy the middle and lower classes, this may be just the little extra needed to “justify” removing the safety net of “entitlements”.
Heh. You *may* be able to persuade me that brazen is a better description.
Just in case anyone else is using Firefox 5.0 like me and could not read the third graf because the petition sign-up widget blocked the view:
Bond markets demanding higher yields on Treasuries?
Stirling:
um, second time today i think i must be blind…
quite sure i left some comments on this post… but for the life of me, i can’t see them now… :(
While the ideas are similar – the actions are a bit different. Mine is a concern for the “no tax increase on the rich” – which is my specific conclusion as to point of the S&P GOP game and Social Security.
Reducing the value of our investments via austerity so as to allow the rich to buy public assets at fire sale prices – the German grab for the Greek coast line real estate and utility companies – is no doubt another point on the power point presentation by the MOTU.
LOL – welcome to my world!
a question while i’m looking for my previous comments:
who decides who are reputable economists? what’s the test?
this is a really important question and, i think, the reason political progressives have no coherent economic policy (we take advice from neoliberal economists and for the most part ignore progressive economists). just because someone is a reliable dem, hates the Rs, has progressive politics and maybe is even a friend, that’s no help in determining whether or not their economics are progressive or even if they makes sense).
Andrea Mitchell reports that the White House acknowledges asking S&P to step in.
source? (not that i don’t believe you, but i want to send that one around asap)
I’m not entirely convinced either is mutually exclusive. It very well could be both.
As a matter of fact I’m pretty convinced it’s both. Otherwise they wouldn’t have this idiotic viewpoint that somehow the upper echelon of this country are going to be isolated from the anger and outrage that will ensue when people realize they are systemically being robbed.
The agenda of Standard and Poor is to make Poor the Standard.
would love to see link for that – thx
looks like News of the World has been here . . . tons of comments done disappeared
Selise, I believe you left some comments on the other very similar post from today done by Jane and Scarecrow together. Could the comments your looking for be there?
found ‘em… they are on a duplicate of this post over at myfdl…. here:
http://my.firedoglake.com/scarecrow/2011/07/28/what-is-sps-ideological-agenda-because-it-aint-about-default-risk-or-economics/
(good guess though, thanks for trying!)
I’m not really surprised to see S & P flexing their newfound political muscle. Isn’t this what happens when a political, or several political entities, abdicate their responsibility of oversight and regulation? Pretty much as soon as entities discover nobody wants to take them to task for wrongdoing, you find the inmates running the assylum (sic). What else is new?
me too. if ms. greenspan is correct (not exactly a reputable source, so who knows), that’s a bombshell.
Yeah, I thnk there may have been a glitch as we passed through the black hole. Top comments are missing, I thnk.
The post is my opinion about who is worth citing. You can disagree. There is no objective standard that I know of.
I do not agree a politician would deliberately try to tank the economy and then run for reelection.
S&P work for whom? Why the Wall Street banks and hedgefunds, from whom they are taking direction to help tank this presidency in 2012. What other reason could there be, other than utter terminally stupid dumbness–but wait, we have seen and do see that from Wall St perpetually. Occams Razor.
It was two or three weeks ago an official at S&P said “default” would not be considered limited to paying on a conventional credit product, such as principal or interest to a bondholder. Rather, default would also encompass failure to pay ANY obligation owed by the Fed gov’t.
This popped up and evaporated quickly, but is revealing. So is the $4 million demand cooked up by S&P, noted above.
My hunch is S&P is urgently worried about Europe, which is in far more dire straits and sinking fast. I think S&P feels they have no choice other than to use US problems as a foil over there. Today’s premise is correct, they’re acting out of school.
i disagree. but i don’t think that’s what matters so much.
more important, i think, is that we progressives have an open discussion — without fear or favor — about who is worth citing. and who is not.
we’ve been depending on macro-idiots & neoliberals for policy advice and as a result progressives have failed to effectively counter the “everyone agrees there must be cuts” nonsense. hell we’ve helped amplify that nonsense.
imo, it’s psat time to decide where our loyalties lie…. with loyalty to our political allies or to our progressive values (like concern for the oppressed) and what is true (as best as we can tell).
for example: imo, on macro econ, brad delong is not a reliable source. paul krugman is not a reliable source. and for crying out loud, simon johnson (peterson foundation!) is not a reliable source. that doesn’t mean they aren’t nice people, good political analysts or friends….
It may be MSN’s-for-mobile feed (domain name: http://news.mobile.msn.com/en-us/videos) as I’m seeing “Andrea Mitchell Reports” but can’t get the video to play on a PC (at the moment) as the videos are formatted for iPhone/smart phone devices. Look at this one on July 25, 2011 and any that occur later.
thanks, i’ll give it a try…
I fully agree that MMT says we can’t default but no body believes it.What is worse, mainstream economists, including notably from Harvard, actually say we can go bankrupt. And they are always somewhere on TV. I heard it on CNN this morning and if you want more read Business Week. They are hyperventilating over the debt. So the MMT stuff is nice but irrelevant insofar as public opinion is concerned.
You’re welcome. Heh– I want to see it too!
It does seem to me that economics is increasingly irrelevant when it comes to politics and public opinion. No one can tell who is right without some pretty good reading and understanding of the underlying principles. Where do they get these guys from? who knows. There are a few asses from Harvard that seem always to be around. I guess they are just charasmatic.
I have very low expectations for Obama. I think Standard and Poors are a disgrace. Still, it did not occur to me that Obama would become the leading spokesperson for the rating agencies!
http://jotman.blogspot.com/2011/07/evidence-obama-speech-written-by-gop-s.html
It’s worse than that. You pick who supports your argument. You did too.
Thanks Jane, as usual a concise and cogent analysis of a situation that has everyone else running around screaming that the sky is falling. $ sent to back you up. Where is anyone in the government on this blatant and bogus attempt to ride roughshod over the democratic authority of the US government by private enterprise? Oh, right…the checks have been cashed.
Keep speaking truth to corrupt power Jane!
Standard and Poors. Perfect name for these right wing bastards. By their standards they’d like to make the rest of us as Poor as possibel.
The ones with the best data to back up their positions. The ones who confess the limitations of their data. The ones who have just a smidgen of understanding of empirical economics, institutional economics, information economics, and the research that has sprung from Coase’s theory of the operation of firms. Ones who have actually read Keynes’s The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money since they were required to (if they were required to) in graduate school.
The ones who’ve actually seen how business decisions are made and understand the problems with the data that businesses and government are using to make decisions.
The ones for whom Marx isn’t anathema but one economic thinker in a wide range of early economic thinkers.
The ones for whom the purpose of economic policy is not defined exclusively by economic values like “efficiency”, “profitability”, and “incentives”.
so, I cite a couple of people you likely agree with, and others you don’t, but guess what, on the point I’m making they agree with each other! Guilty.
And yes, I cite arguments I agree with. So? I cite them both because they arguments make sense and because they’re put forward by people, if you go back through the links and follow their follow up, honestly try to deal with their critics. so I don’t know what it is you disagree with, other than I cite people you don’t like for making particular arguments you and your preferred sources agree with.
selise — I figured out what happened to earlier comments. When the backstage fairies put this post on FDL front page, they created a new post, and the comments started over. My original post with the first 10 comments is still back there, under my name, but that’s not this one (the text is identical; they just added the petition box).
Usually, they just transfer a MyFDL post to FDL front page, but when you click on it for comments, it takes you to the MyFDL page. This post is essentially a copy of the original created just for FDL front page.
Sorry about the confusion, but they must have decided to do it this way when they added the petition box.
I listen to all because anyone – even the less erudite – can have an insight well before others.
That said I find those with a deeper education in economics like Krugman to be more interesting that someone rather light on many aspects of economics – like Warren. But again Warren having only a BS and a hedge fund background does not take away from the fact he has insights into how people act – and indeed that is a hedge fund skill that even the most learned economist may lack.
But number of publications, prestige university, etc. are not automatic points. Larry made a point of hiring Chicago School fools because the alumni giving the biggest money wanted him to do so. And there are only a few journals for the economist to publish in with the gatekeepers rarely going off the accepted narrative, so being well publish does not get a lot of points either.
The automatics rejects for a progressive I suggest are anyone from the Chicago School or the Austrian School – and anyone Fox or Forbes or CNN or any Murdoch property tries to push.
As for the pundit world – YMMV
didn’t find it :(
i think we could figure it out together.
a stopped clock is correct twice a day. doesn’t mean though that it can tell time. so what if a stopped clock sometimes agrees with you or with other stopped clocks. what matters is which clocks are able to tell time semi-reliably.
i disagree. for example, simon johnson uses the CBO usg budget forecasts which galbriath has explained (many times) are nonsense for that purpose.
this isn’t about who i like or don’t like. it’s about having spent a lot of time reading and thinking and coming to the conclusion that some of them are talking nonsense. that’s what i don’t like.
maybe i’m wrong. that’s a discussion i’d like to have.
progressives need progressive economic policy. not neoliberal and not nonsensical. without it we’re just another post for yves on why liberals suck.
have you any examples of where krugman is right and mosler has been wrong? serious question.
no problem, i figured it out eventually. i know my eyes are bothering me… just didn’t think they were quite that bad! :)
Obama, like Bush, Clintons etc.. attends secret meetings with agents of other country’s away from the public eye. There they discuss the future of the planet including America. There is speculation that this organization is planning to destroy the sovereignty of all nations, to conquer the world by deception and manipulations of the money supply. As the patriot(sic) act has eroded the constitution, along with “signing statements”, a monetary collapse in the USA to facilitate more erosion of the US Constitution seems likely. When you consider that bush.. and obama were in theory from the opposite extremes of right and left.. yet their presidency’s are following the same agenda, 2 wars, patriot(sic) act, gitmo, goldman sachs, treasury and fed leadership, obama/bush tax cuts, free public money for pharma and insurance industry’s. what’s the difference? These crisis are deliberately staged to undermine the pillars of freedom in america.. so the whole thing collapses to a point taht the savior will be the new world order.. combining usa mexico and canada.. Proof of the plan is the European union.. that’s not anyone’s imagination. the Mexico to Canada highway, done without congress permission behind the peoples back by a president following his own agenda, you remember him.. the guy who ignored the constitution cus it was “just a god damn piece of paper?” the guy who passed the patriot act.. torture is ok (cus its’ not him getting tortured).
all these guys are not stupid.. they are following a plan. they program the electronic voting machines.. they control the media.. the banks control them.. Their goal is one world. owned and run by them.. with just enough chipped slaves allowed to exist to keep the optimum standard of living for themselves.
I voted for obama.. to my horror i saw NO change.. NO effect.. it does NOT matter who gets installed in office.. right or left .. both paths merge after the election .. and the intended road leads to damnation of this country.