
The 2012 map could look a lot like the one from 2000.
With increasing and annoying frequency, I’m seeing lazy pieces like this.
Alec Baldwin recently waded into the world of Twitter, and he’s already using it as a platform for talking politics. Weighing in on the 2012 presidential race, the “30 Rock” actor declared Friday that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney “has the best chance” of beating Obama.
“Unwarranted fear/loathing of Obama is sad, but real. Romney has that Plymouth Rock last name… and Ken doll appeal that a lot of right-wingers go for,” Baldwin tweeted.
“I mentioned Romney because if he can overcome the Mormon issue with the Christian right, he could win it,” Baldwin wrote. “His contradictions re: Health care can be ironed out by clever GOP and conservative think tank types.”
This, after Howard Dean just created a stir after he said that Palin could beat Obama.
I’m not sure why we keep rehashing this. The simple fact is, the map hasn’t changed much since the election of 2000, which was decided by a single state — and the first time the winner in a presidential election lost the popular vote in over a century.
2004 was also decided by a single state, with Bush/Cheney winning re-election by the smallest margin by any incumbent since Wilson.
And despite the fact that Bush failed to achieve victory in two wars, took a record surplus and turned it into a record deficit, let a major US city drown, had the worst job creation record of any post-war president, a raft-load of ugly scandals and presided over gas prices that nearly quadrupled — the weak Republican ticket of McCain and The Quitter still managed to get nearly 46% of the vote.
Now if nearly 46% of the country will vote Republican after Bush/Cheney, they’ll vote Republican after anything, especially when a Kenyan Marxist is in the White House.
2012 is still going to come down to the same states again (FL, OH, PA) — and Florida’s unemployment rate is higher than the national average, which is extremely dangerous for an incumbent — 9.1%.
So yes, a Republican can beat Obama. Pick one.
Can we move on now?



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It helped that the media chose to play down a lot of the scandals, and instead of holding 9/11 against him as they would have with a President Gore (does anyone doubt that the Republicans and their media allies would have tried to impeach Gore if he was in the White House on September 11, 2001? Especially as they were all still mightily pissed off that they failed to take out Clinton in 1998), went along with his every action in the immediate wake of 9/11.
You know it’s a slow news period when the media serves up political analysis from the likes of Alec Baldwin.
My pick is Gary Johnson, but I’D HAPPILY take (& contribute to) whomever runs against Obama. My current mantra is, “ANYONE but Obama”. Yes, even Sarah Palin! It would take a Primary challenge to interest me again in the Dems, they are pitiful. Right now, I’d jump up and down to see the very disappointing Russ Feingold (from ’08-’10) challenge “Clarence Thomas” Obama.
We must beat this dead horse!
Who is this Alec Baldwin, of which you speak?
Great piece Blue!
Obama Will Survive … the Alternative is Catastrophe!
The electorate has begun to intuit that if Obama is to be blamed for anything, it is wasting time bargaining with the ‘Know-Nothing’ radicals who comprise the opposition party.
Republicans have delayed, obstructed or watered down every initiative put forward to heal the economy their policies ravaged. They’ve been quite successful keeping the economy on the very brink. They might just push it over the edge with the debt ceiling hostage crisis.
Even low information rubes must understand that cutting Granny’s health care, slashing taxes for the rich and deregulating BP doesn’t help the economy.
Join us at the War on Ignorance!
http://waronignorance.net/index.html
Thanks!
And with all this being said, Obama, who has allowed not only the continuation of those two wars, but adding a third along with continuing the promotion and destruction of our civil liberties and hunting whistle blowers with reckless abandon, all make me less likely to vote for Obama a second time, much less Bush for a 3rd.
Domestic issues are obviously vitally important, but let’s not forget, Obama has done nothing more than act as an extension of Bush than doing anything in the interest of the people.
I’ll make it easier for you, forget the whole 2012 cycle. We know that Obama is going to lose. Why allow yourself to be deceived by the spin he and his cronies are going to throw out there. It is all bullshit to appeal to our betters and will be forgotten within days of his re-election.
Imagine, the Republican party was almost dead… but only Obama could bring it back.
Great job Barry. Enjoy whatever speaking gigs and boards you and Michelle are going to get to sit on after 2012. I’m certain you won’t worry about how to make ends meet ever again.
We need a third party or we’re forever going to be faced with “hold my nose and vote for the least offensive party.” Well, they’re both offensive and neither one represents the people of this country. Isn’t that what they’re supposed to do? I, for one, am not voting in the 2012 election.
I’m voting Green in 2012.
The republicans will never get my vote, and unless the democrats change radically, they will never get my vote again either.
War on Ignorance, notwithstanding, you are ignoring the fact that Obama and the Democrats are fully on board with cutting Granny’s health care, slashing taxes for the rich and deregulating BP which doesn’t help the economy.
Obama instituted the Right Wing Pete Peterson anti-Social Security/Medicare Deficit Commission. Their right-wing idealism (cuts to SS and Medicare) now represents the leftist counterpoint! to the more draconian by (degrees) “Ryan Budget Plan”. Both Plans will whack Granny.
Republicans have delayed, obstructed or watered down every initiative put forward to heal the economy their policies ravaged. They’ve been quite successful keeping the economy on the very brink. They might just push it over the edge with the debt ceiling hostage crisis.
Not hard to water down that which already consists of mostly water.
The debt ceiling hostage crisis was caused by the Democrats.
It could have been:
a.) Pushed thru when D’s had majorities in both houses.
b.) Traded for the Extension of the Bush Tax Cuts*.
(*Why didn’t OBama offer his own Obama Tax Cuts for Working Americans while raising taxes on the rich – which was highly popular in every poll?)
The simple fact is, the map hasn’t changed much since the election of 2000…
Err, except for the 2000 Census and the 2010 Census, which both shifted electoral votes from Blue States to Red States.
If the 2000 election had been held using the new [2000 Census] electoral vote allocation, the result would have been:
Bush 278 – Gore 259 – Abstain 1 vs. the actual result of Bush 271 – Gore 266 – Abstain 1.
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/pe2000ev_chg.php
The new [2010] Census data that just came out today is a huge win for the GOP… there was a big shift in Congressional states from “blue” to “red” states. Texas is the huge winner, picking up 4 seats. NY and Pennsylvania both lost seats. California failed to gain any seats for the first time. Other red states picking up seats, according to Washington Post’s Aaron Blake: FL +2, AZ, GA, SC, UT, WA, NV +1.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-gop-just-got-a-huge-win-from-the-new-census-data-2010-12
You must vote, organize outside the system or continue to dwell in your apathy.
This is partly why we do not have viable third, fourth, etc parties in this country.
There are always additional candidates to choose from. If you wish to stand on your principals, find a candidate who most embodies your ideals…and vote.
The battle to change the map is in the Congressional races. And geography is not destiny. Progressives would do well not to get fixated on the Presidential race, and really should focus more on local races and state legislatures that can create a farm team of candidates for future races.
The down-ticket items are important, too. Especially like the propositions we have here in Ca. Vote – it’s a right you cannot afford to give up.
“Kenyan Marxist”? I take it that is being snide. I think more and more are catching on that Obama is nothgin more than a smooth talking servant of the Oligarchy, thier Wall St. Hencheman and a cowardly corporatist. A proto-Fascist marching deeper into Fascism.
It is becasue of that that I will vote for whatever crazy assclown the R’s put up, especially Palin.
4 more years of Obama’s cementing right wing policies into place so the dullards have a new “center to latch onto, I cannot abide. Let a clumsy oaf like Palin get the reigns and see just how many start to wake up from their ignorance after choking on her shit. It will be like Wisconosn at the national level.
Absent a viable third party candidate I’ll take a victory over Obama by a GOPer over another term for President Pinocchio. In a heartbeat.
Thanks for your comment. I may vote Green. I could never vote for obama or any of the republican candidates.
This is another possibility. One that I was ridiculed for considering, by several colleagues, before the ’08 election and after the Reverend Wright epiphany.
This electorate definitely needs a good shake up.
The Kenyan Marxist thing is FDL snark.
I agree with you. With current info, the position you espouse is one I lean toward. Absent a Primary challenge by a genuine Liberal (as if) to unseat the Fraud, and/or a third party candidate that could win (as if) a vote is wasted and could propel the Trojan Fraud to a second term.
Better to get Palin for the Wisconsin Doctrine writ large.
Rick Scott is fracturing the R’s in FL.
Voting does not count any more due to Diebold. Unless of course it’s a landslide and they can’t fudge the votes.
YOu think that all those things won’t happen under a second Obama term? A true believer indeed.
Why do we think there is a difference in the parties. There is one party corporatist, as long as we keep saying there is a difference nothing will change. IMHO we must vote even if it’s a protest vote. Just my 2 cents.
The only hope is that John Kasich and Rick Scott create such massive ill will that it will tilt those states to the blue.
So, judging by their records – what’s the difference?
Please write in or vote for a third party. If you don’t vote you’re sending the message that you’re indifferent, or worse, satisfied.
The problem is with Obama the capitulator in chief is there any difference?
He has governed as a republican
Not unlike Andrew Cuomo is doing in New York as Governor.
Not a damn difference. They call themselves democrats BUT govern as Republicans and the people are left scrambling for peanuts!!!!
“So yes, a Republican can beat Obama. Pick one.”
If the choice is between the current Republican in the White House or a new Republican in the White House, I’ll vote for someone else besides those two. Obama is a catastrophe.
And of course there’s also the stark reality, nullified by election fraud, Dem voter suppression and electronic vote padding/reversals in the last 3 elections (yup, even in ’08), that in fact the Repukes have not legitimately won a Presidential election since 1988. That’s 23 years! Unfortunately, the policies enacted by Clinton, the Usurper/Thief-in-Chief W and Obama have been mostly pro-corporate/anti-citizenry.
Some great reminders by all upthread re: down ticket voting, third party support, etc. Each of us has to gauge what the best strategy is for voting in our own neck of the woods.
Something for the shoebox.
I’d say the Grand Ol’ Perverts already won, when Obama abandoned Democrats and became a Rethug in 2009.
Yes, Obama can lose…and Obama WILL lose. He will lose because he won in 2008 on “hope and change” with no program on what to do once he got into the White House. Now, 3+ years later, his economic plan has been shown to be a disaster, his foreign policy is a joke, we have lost more troops in Afghanistan under Obama than for seven years under Bush, we are now involved in THREE wars (and how much the liberals hated Bush for being in two), Obama is thumbing his nose at Congress when it comes to following the law (that pesky War Powers Act that Bush followed), and Obama has turned Israel into an enemy. And he has turned Pakistan to China. And he has allowed oil drilling in the US to go dry. And…and…and…
Well, enough of that. Remember 1992? I thought that Bush was a shoo-in for re-election: unemployment was 7.4% in October 1992 and coming down. But Bush lost anyway…why? Because it is the economy. The economy, the economy, the economy, the economy, the economy.
Obama is at 9.1% unemployment now (actually, it is about 14.4%), with $4.00 gas, and housing dead as a doornail…and not much will change by next November.
Obama is toast…only his sycophants either don’t understand, don’t realize, or are too stupid to notice.
If you think that Obama is a Republican, you are pretty much lost when it comes to intelligence.
My condolences.
I have little doubt that Obama will win, but that is the problem. He may not call himself a Republican. He has spent his whole political life as a Democrat. But in aligning himself, even if only for diplomacy’s sake, with the centrist conservative Democrats he has lost my vote.
The problem here is neither Democrat or Republican but both. Together, the Democrats and Republicans are not dealing with our national or planetary problems. They both are perpetuating war. They both are unsustainable. They both are into amassing wealth and depriving each of us of our constitutional rights.
Obama will win. But does it really matter?
“. . .We must beat this dead horse!. . .”
——————————-
Which one, or maybe all of them?
I’m beginning to think anyone of any party who wants to occupy the White House is a candidate for the glue factory.
Anson, your cynicism is well placed; however, if the campaign rhetoric is taken as aspirational rather than a ready and can-do promise we can keep our sanity.
I think the problem nowadays is the hyperpartisanship run amok, which brings all this home to roost. Yet it’s nice to recall this isn’t the first episode of it in US history, and the country eventually worked its way through before, more than once. Be patient if you can.
It is very cool the way you are able to back up your argument with so much evidence. ;-)
I hope that you do vote Green.
It seems likely that the corporate media will try to spin a non-vote in a way that serves the status quo.
But if there are a large number of Green votes, then this situation will be harder to ignore.
Huntsman could get D votes and beat Obama – but not Romney.
So Obama wins as Huntsman can not get out of the primary and nominated.
I’ll work down ticket – but Obama is unlikely to get my vote.
When Bush left office We were losing 750,000 jobs a month. In less than 6 months Obama had us gaining over 250,000 jobs a month. That’s a total net gain of a Million jobs a month over what Obama inherited. I dare you to name another President that took us from a MINUS 750,000 a month to a POSITIVE 250,000 a month in less than 6 months. Take your time because NO President has ever been able to do that before. If you’re not smart enough to understand why that’s important and why that reason alone is enough to give Obama another term then I question whether you’re smart enough to be voting in the first place.
And some of you people are going to vote for The Green Party. Go ahead , waste your vote, let another Republican win and finish the job of wrecking the economy Bush started. If that’s the best you can do then you deserve what you get. Then there are those that say “I won’t vote for Obama” as if they ever had. They can lie but 99.9% out of 100% that voted for him in 2008 WILL vote for him in 2012 and that’s 10,000,000 more than voted Democratic in 2010. Get ready Republicans we are coming for you and no gerrymandering or voter suppression is going to stop us. Go ahead ,bitch and moan but it won’t do you any good, You’ll just die out of breath.
“So yes, a Republican can beat Obama. Can we move on now?”
Yes We Can move on without corporate c*@ksucker FauxBama. He’s performed his role near flawlessly. The only difference in having a Republican (with a capital R) as president is that They didn’t lie about what they intend to do. The end result will be the same, down to having Rick Warren speak at the inauguration. Ha!
I’d say that if Obama is the best the democrats can give us, then we deserve something better. We may not get it in the short term, but always giving our votes to the democrats, just because they are the lesser evil means that they have no reason to change.
My hope is that enough of us will vote 3rd party in 2012 in order to “Nader” Obama. And if people accuse us of being the reason for Obama’s loss, I’ll proudly take my share of the credit.
I’ve always voted democratic—until 2008. Obama’s betrayal on the telecom immunity deal was my final straw with the guy. I couldn’t support Obama in 2008, and I will not support him in 2012.
I can’t really know for sure what others will do, but I think many other people have seen the light now, after witnessing all Obama’s other betrayals.
Now if nearly 46% of the country will vote Republican after Bush/Cheney, they’ll vote Republican after anything, especially when a Kenyan Marxist is in the White House.
When I was GingOTV for Kerry in 2004, I talked to a young woman who told me her dad was voting for Kerry but she and her mom were voting for Bush because they thought it was better not to change horses mid-Iraq war. But, sure, she’d put a Kerry poster in the window and maybe next time she’d vote for him.
There is nothing logical about the way people vote.
I’ve voted for the Democratic Party presidential candidate consistently since 1972. I even voted, with misguided hope, for Obama. Not next time. I’m done with allowing Democrats to creep endlessly right without consequence.
Many of you suggest voting Green. The Green Party in my neck of the woods is pretty genteel. I want to support a group that is willing to take it to the streets. I’m thinking Peace and Freedom in ’12.
Progressive down ticket Democrats will still get my vote … if there are any on the ballot.
By 2012, The National Popular Vote bill could guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.
The bill would award all the electoral votes from the enacting states to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC), when it takes effect, when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes–enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538).
The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for president. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.
The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers, in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in AR, CT, DE, DC, ME, MI, NV, NM, NY, NC, and OR, and both houses in CA, CO, HI, IL, NJ, MD, MA ,RI, VT, and WA . The bill has been enacted by DC, HI, IL, NJ, MD, MA, VT, and WA. These 8 jurisdictions possess 77 electoral votes — 29% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
http://www.NationalPopularVote.com