The relentless drive to cut Medicare and Social Security is real, omnipresent and extremely well-funded (see: Peterson, Pete). Politicians on both sides of the aisles can always be counted upon to stand there with their hands out, ready to oblige — that is, if it doesn’t cost them their seat to do so.
So which of these is real, and which is political theater meant to minimize political fallout for doing that?
There’s the media brawl:
A guide to the Barack Obama – Paul Ryan smackdown
Rep. Paul Ryan scolds President Barack Obama for calling his Medicare plan a “voucher.” Obama fires back at House Republicans for accusing him of cutting Medicare in the health reform law.
There’s the insider strategy:
McConnell Tries to Shield GOP on Medicare
With Senate Republicans divided on how to deal with Medicare amid potent Democratic charges that the GOP wants to gut it, the Kentucky Republican is looking to an eventual debt ceiling deal not only to score a long-sought policy victory on the popular health care entitlement for seniors, but also to do so without damaging his party’s 2012 prospects.
And there’s the electoral triumphalism:
Pelosi: Medicare key to Dems winning House
Cuts to seniors’ Medicare benefits are “absolutely” off the table in the current legislative-White House deficit-reduction talks, Pelosi said.
Now, they are all at least partially “real.” Pelosi definitely knows that keeping the upper hand on Medicare would be key to maximizing the Democrats’ ability to beat the crap out of the GOP in 2012, just as they did with Social Security in 2006. Mitch McConnell really does want to grab that ace away out of Pelosi’s hand, and at this point Obama probably does loathe Paul Ryan. And really, who could blame him.
But the question is — who’s going to see their game through to the end?
My money is on McConnell. He can force the Democrats to give up their advantage by giving Obama what he wants — a compromise on the debt ceiling. It means Obama’s poll numbers will rise when he gets the “w,” which is what he always wants. But, it means forcing the Democrats in Congress to walk the plank once again on Medicare, and share responsibility for the cuts. Since Pelosi won’t need to deliver that many Democrats to make it happen, she’ll probably be willing to hand over that ace once again when the time comes. Of course, everyone will crow about how they’re going to do this to “save” Medicare.
It’s all just a guess, of course. But I feel pretty good about the odds.



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Pretty good guess, Jane. I think this outcome was predetermined. All of the manuevering is planned. Everyone’s just playing their part at this point. Medicare will be cut significantly and the poor and elderly will suffer.
Rep. Grayson detailed the glaring disparity between classes beautifully last night. Thanks you for having him on.
I’m such a moron I couldn’t figure out how to join that thing last night. I logged in and kept clicking the link on the right by Grayson’s pic, and it kept sending me to the JOIN FDL page.
I went to myFDL and clicked a few things, then gave up.
I probably missed another email. Damn Yahoo sends almost everything to my spam folder it seems.
Pretty good guess, I’d say. Members of the House, Senate and Executive Branch should be forced to sit down (ala Clockwork Orange) and watch this 50-minute bit. Probably wouldn’t change anything, but the idea of strapping them down like Little Alex and force-feeding them a dose of reality is really quite appealing to me.
Hey OFG, you get an email. It’s from “gotowebinar” and there’s a link in it. That’s how we make sure you’re the only one that enters under your ID.
Because, there’s only one you.
IMO the only thing being “negotiated” right now regarding Medicare cuts are which Democrats can safely vote against them and still have them pass.
And to minimize that number, I’m sure they won’t even bother filibustering the final deal.
Assholes.
Then they’re going to cut Social Security after the election.
Bank on it.
Unless we take Barry down and put the fear of DFH’s in the hearts of Democrats in Congress, I guarantee you they’re goint to cut social security after the election. Because if we re-elect a Dem Prez after cutting Medicare, they’ll know they can cut even from seniors and count on the “left” to come home in elections where the R’s are all batshit insane.
I suggest sending this to Pelosi’s office with the following message:
“If you really want to win next year, it’s up to you to stand firm and prove Jane wrong — if you can. Besides, the debt ceiling is not only artificial, it’s very likely unconstitutional: http://news.firedoglake.com/2011/05/17/overhyped-debt-limit-could-be-unconstitutional/ “
That’s a damn good guess.
Obama seems determined to minimize/eliminate any meaningful differences between the two parties.
Yeah, I figured I missed another email.
Thanks for clarifying that. Gonna have to just turn the spam filter off in Yahoo I guess.
I’ll check out things today (just got here) and see what I can find and maybe at least get a good idea what was discussed last night.
Thanks for all you do Jane.
IMO you and folks like you may be our only hope left of changing where we’re heading. Keep it up.
Gotta raise that $Billion somehow…
Start using gmail :) It’s wonderful.
Thanks for the scorecard, Jane. That makes sense to me.
The only thing I’m counting on is for the Plutocratic-Unitary Party to gut both Medicare & Soc Sec under the guise of “austerity” measures.
The only other thing I’m counting on is for the usual 27% suspect to clap, cheer, hoot, holler & *celebrate* for how fantastically GREAT this is bc Rush Limbaugh said so.
“Like.”
The analysis is beyond scary; I wouldn’t bet against it, however.
Some are chosing Zoho instead and no negative reports on them (versus Google which roboSPAMed me a few days ago) so far.
Look, the entire gamut of political processes have closed ranks and declared the 10% of the top, the winners. Madison Ave. recognizes this:
http://www.alternet.org/newsandviews/article/604932/with_no_middle_class_left%2C_ad_age_says_top_10_dominates_purchasing_power/
and we don’t count.
In Portland, the water issue is closed, sealed, off limits. Anyone running for City Council avoids even saying “water”, especially for mayor. Earl “The Pearl” Blumenauer, Jeff Merkley (and he lives in my neighborhood, or did) and Ron Wyden (R. NY) say nothing, will not significantly address the issue. In Salem, same thing.
So it’s endemic, politically. Why and how? That 536 people in D.C either buy in or cave in to the demands and govern accordingly is stunning beyond belief. It’s the political version of Global Warming. The climate has changed and there seems nowhere to go.
My only conclusion is, like climate change, it will have to go off the cliff first. It will take that top 1% to shrink to one person owning all the money, in which case, it will be worthless to everyone.
I’m not a betting girl, but, I know, if I don’t play, I can’t win.
Jane, thanks for the post. Hope BT is okay. Still, thanks.
You’re a great leader. I really think you are.
BT is on vacation this week.
I don’t know if the debt ceiling itself is unconstitutional, but I do believe defaulting on US obligations is.
And for readers out there I just want to repeat this again. There is NO need for the Democrats to give up ANYTHING to get an increase in the debt ceiling. If the Republicans really do refuse to increase it, when the repercussions from that hits Wall Street the very movers and shakers and FUNDERS of the Republican Party will pick up the phone. In a hurry.
If the Democrats “compromise” by including ANYTHING with the debt limit increase, it will be because the Democrats CHOSE to do so. That will be a choice for which they should be held accountable.
Unless you don’t care about Medicare that is.
If you let them cut Medicare, and then re-elect a Dem President anyway, I can guarantee you that Social Security cuts will occur after the election.
And you know what, if we re-elect a Dem Prez after cutting Medicare, then we deserve whatever that Dem Prez does after the election.
This is not the Middle Ages when old people lived with their children until they died or were too sick and were left to die or put in institutions.
We have Medicare, which costs poor old people $106 a month after paying Medicare tax all their lives, plus more than $1,000 every time you enter the hospital, unless 60 days have passed, pluys 20% of the doctor bills, plus the first $4,000 drug costs. There is no longterm payment for nursing homes – you pay the average $83,000 a year yourself.
What a hellhole bargain! Worst in the industrialized world. Nearly everyone who enters a nursing home ends up losing their home and every cent in the bank so they can qualify for Medicaid, and there you are, six in a room, doped up to keep you quiet, and some rich dick comes in to see grandma and tells her everyone misses her, as he jumps into his BMW and smirks.
Two worlds. Them that have. Them that will suffer old age in a country that doesn’t give a damn.
And yet I still wonder if 40 million seniors get really angry and they haven’t stopped those easy gun sales, how dangerous will it be to even walk the streets. Some of the elderly get angry easily, and might get very angry when you cut even the miserable cheapass Medicare program.
And this is not the Middle Ages when you couldn’t own a home and had to rent.
This isn’t the Middle Ages when only the elite could vacation every day while the serfs slaved to create the wealth of the rich.
Or is it?
Thanks. Good for him. We all need a break, sometimes. I hope he got to go somewhere Fabulous. And, you are going to take a break from all your Tenatious Hard Work? We support you. We encourage you. We do what we can.
Whew, at least he missed yesterday morning. :)
Affordable healthcare needs to be available for all. Young and old. But, for the oldsters, what does healthcare mean if they have nowhere to live…except their kids house or some dump of a nursing home, which will let them die faster, and without dignity.
Doubled cost of water, anyone? Water, water, water! “Threats to Portland’s Water Supply” (Apr. 16, 2011)
Judging from what I see of the macro financial “weather,” Starbuck, I think we are there. The only thing left is the illusion in folks’ heads (hence the massive corporate disinformation campaign via a consolidated communications infrastructure in the US and increasingly so internationally [Internet controls central governments are test driving]).
What does defaulting on US obligations have to do with the constitution?
I so agree with all you have said. The Democrats have the GOP boxed in. They should stand together and scream loud and clear – NO CUTS TO MEDICARE, and they will have the complete support of the biggest voting block in the nation. This is one place where compromise is the DEMs biggest enemy. The GOP will ultimately raise the debt ceiling because their major donors will insist on it and they will have no choice. They have to appease the big boys and their voters will blame them if there are any more crisis caused by not raising the debt ceiling that shrinks their remaining 401Ks or other assests.
Dr. Henry A. Giroux explains:
As OldFatGuy states, the Democrats need give up nothing as Wall Street would come down hard on the Republicans. This is not about raising the debt ceiling, it is about destroying our social safety net long term.
This is just like HCR, the tail wagging the dog.
From the start the the public option was traded away, but Obama keep right on supporting it and took a year of Kabuki to finally be “forced” to give it up.
The Medicare cutting deal was made back in December. Now it is just more Kabuki to make it look like Obama is being forced to give in.
As was said on the call last night, we know the GOP are a bunch of SOBs but where is Obama and the WH on this? Jane you are right…with Pete Peterson…what is the difference between the two parties? Not much…Wall st wins no matter who runs the country…I was going to bring up Peterson or David Walker’s name last night on the call but I decided since AG was a guest I thought better of it!
Beware Peterson-backed Chained CPI:
http://crfb.org/document/measuring-case-chained-cpi
http://crfb.org/blogs/its-time-measure-inflation-correctly
This gives Democrats the excuse that they aren’t cutting anything and are actually making things better.
My read is that Wall Street (US) and Mayfair (UK) want it now then Canada with the successful further burrowing of Harper et al. It’s all about each next bigger heist since 2008 was so successful and the “in-crowd” bankstas think the world is their oyster which includes plundering Greece, Portugal and Spain because “We have the power” as Michael Hayden would say (hat tip EmptyWheel, May 16, 2011).
McConnell = OBAMA
OBAMA = McConnell these are the same people.
the Orange Man just saved OBAMA illegal Libya policy from being attack by a real dem Dennis K.
with the States about to lay off tons of people come July, because the stimulus money runs out this month. QE2 ends
in July millions of AMERICANS will join the working poor due to State Layoffs.
the DC crowd will be dancing and doing their kabuki while the USA burns.
the GREAT! GREAT! DEPRESSION of 2011 will be in full affect by the end of 3rd quarter.
with no FDR to save the USA? the end will come quick! God help us all.
Kabuki dancing will not fix the USA economy.
Jane, maybe give EB the “trailing toilet paper treatment” again!
Pretty much my conclusion. Again, it’s all play acting. Kabuki Theater is much more an art form. I hate to denigrate it!
“I don’t know if the debt ceiling itself is unconstitutional, but I do believe defaulting on US obligations is…There is NO need for the Democrats to give up ANYTHING to get an increase in the debt ceiling.”
Far be it from me to defend Democrats, but it’s not just a matter of either being able to spend on any amount on anything or default on debt. What can be done is increasing the debt ceiling only to pay for servicing existing debt, which such an action wouldn’t result in default, but could eliminate all non-debt servicing spending…obviously the Republicans wouldn’t want such strict legislation, but increasing the debt ceiling for anything other than servicing the existing debt is by choice rather than by Constitutional necessity.
I can’t email Pelosi through her House website – doesn’t like my zip code since I’m not in CA. Anybody got an email for her?
Not surprisingly, I do not see the Democrats caving on Medicare.
The Republicans have nothing. They are bluffing and everyone knows it. Their paymasters are not going to allow a default. Period.
The Democrats also realize Ryan and his fellow miscreants with their Medicare voucher scam have handed them an opportunity to retake the House and retain the Senate. They aren’t giving that away to an obvious bluff.
The corrupt-cynical-corporatists in their ranks understand this better than most. As such, the Democrats hang tough on Medicare.
Frankly, with the way things are going, most boomers & all generations that follow will consider themselves *lucky* to have even a “dump of a nursing home” to go to, if they have no other options.
We already have poor people dumped into the streets to die:
http://www.naturalnews.com/023751_hospital_hospitals_homeless.html
Whyever would *anyone* give a crap about some old person, who is clearly past their “sell-by” date?? All the Randians out there (and they are becoming more “legion”) won’t give a sh*t about the oldsters who cannot “make it” on their own. Even tho the vaunted Ayn Rand “made it” via collecting Soc Sec & Medicare, many citizens enjoy living in the fantasyland that sez: if you’re poor, sick or old: too bad, you no longer have what it takes to “contribute,” so die FAST!
use a CA zip code
you should be able to email her as minority leader which shouldn’t require a CA zip code.
I have been saying this all along Oldfatguy. If Obama gets reelected whats he got to lose?? He definitely will cut Social Security. We would be better off with someone who gets elected prez and then loves the job so much that he/she will not risk the SS thing. At least it will extend the time that we need to find another asshole to elect who will also not risk their first term by cutting our benefits.
I think the dems should fire back at the republicans and say they won’t vote to increase the debt limit unless it includes revoking the Bush tax cuts, eliminating the oil tax subsidies and allowing medicare and medicaid to negotiate drug prices with the pharma industry the same way the VA does.
Every one of these would help eliminate the deficit/debt and none of them would cut any benefits.
While they are at it, they could include eliminating the cap on FICA taxes to “save” social security.
Yeah, I like a good Noh piece too but– as with all things staged– it only best when left on the stage.
I can sum up the situation with one word: B.O.H.I.C.A.
Translation: Bend Over, Here It Comes Again
Grenspans gift keeps on giving. The idea that when steak gets expensive and you switch to hamburger, you have actually had a decrease in the cost of living should have been laughed out of town by economists – but instead it seems to be accepted by most that studied economics except by old farts like myself who never practiced as an economist.
So they utilizes expenditure data in adjacent time periods in order to reflect the effect of any substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to changes in relative prices – and, surprise, that gets a lower increase in the cost of living. They even learned a bit of math so they can claim they are just doing a statistical adjustment.
God – I tired of this crap when I had to explain it in meetings when Greenspan pushed it into our regular CPI-U. Now we have added “chained” so that result is an even lower number. No wonder our GDP shows growth when folks that obviously have a better standard of living as in Japan (poor Japan with that near zero growth – yeah – right) and the EU France and north all show up with lower growth – we adjust the US result higher via a fake CPI.
{ LOL }
My take is that this is simply about the EU-ization of the US (and as many other countries as well) and the “efficiency rate of wealth extraction” the bankstas now demand.
Well, I think there is some question as to what “debt” means. I am of the opinion (and IANAL nor Constitutional scholar so my opinion means ZERO) that the language reads in a way that means all obligations of the government, once they’ve become obligations by law, are to be met. Not just servicing the debt.
In other words, if Congress passes a law (and the Prez signs or the Congress overrides his veto) that obligates X dollars to soldiers as their pensions, then those dollars have become a “debt” owed by the USG. And that “debt” cannot be defaulted on.
So IMO such an increase as you’re suggesting is also unworkable.
But I’m so wrong on the Constution my opinions shouldn’t be taken seriously. I believe it’s unconstitutional for a President to indefinetly detain anyone without charges or access to a lawyer; I believe it’s unconstutional for a President to declare war on a foriegn country (by entering into hostilities with that country *cough* Libya *cough*) and it is up to Congress to declare war; I believe it’s unconstutional for a President to assassinate US citizens; I believe it’s unconstutional for a government to mandate all citizen’s purchase goods/services from private entities; and I believe it’s unconstutional for any Congress NOT to impeach those who do violate the Constituion because they take an OATH to defend the Constitution when they enter Congress. Yet ALL of these things have occurred, so obviously I’m so wrong on the Constitution that it’s pretty funny.
Just not funny to me I guess.
The 14th Amendment to the Constitution makes it unconstitutional to allow the US Government to default of its debt.
A law that causes that result – the debt limit – can be argued to be unconstitutional – but the response as noted above is that you can break Congressional passed laws signed by the president that require certain spending – such as defense spending – and just not pay the military while you continue to service the debt.
But that is also breaking a law – given my lack of legal knowledge, I’ll defer to those with such knowledge as to where there is a path through the above that does not break a law.
My thought is that a President “with balls” – a Hillary – would tell the Congress its unconstitutional and go pound sand. But Obama has “no balls” except when he is told to protect the rich and corporate.
“efficiency rate of wealth extraction” -
yep – that is the goal – and as with all greed goals – it will just get worse until regulation and taxation occurs, or revolution and execution occurs, so as to end the money grab.
I think what we are seeing is the result of a concerted effort to destroy the “Constitution” in a desire for raw power.
Sorry alan, I didn’t catch this earlier.
The short answer is the 14th amendment. The long answer is at my post at 46.
Rest assured I’m wrong though, so perhaps that will make you feel better. (And perhaps that was the better short answer *g*).
Folks may borrow that phrase at will. I’ve noticed that some humans really are capable of infinite greed and all at the expense of others. The trick is to shift the “cost-benefit” equation for any of those organic humans left behind the decisions as you indicate, papau.
“The idea that when steak gets expensive and you switch to hamburger, you have actually had a decrease in the cost of living should have been laughed out of town by economists – but instead it seems to be accepted by most that studied economics”
Using that philosophy, perhaps we should all stop using our toilets and get an outhouse… it would be a decrease in the “cost of living”. Isn’t it interesting how those who make these absurd conclusions usually are never impacted, after all, it is most likely the working and middle class who are “decreasing their cost of living”.
Sadly nothing will happen until people start dying in the streets.
And more accurately, until the CM (Corporate Media) shows it. Because people are already dying in the streets.
But the CM will just keep showing more balloon-boy antics to keep the peons in thrall.
And they will continue to do so even when they can’t hide it anymore.
And all those with anything left, will just bury their head in the sand still. Everyone is too afraid to acknowledge what’s really going on. Better to continue their “middle class” lives for another day in blissful ignorance. Because their subconscious knows how really scary it is in reality.
Yeah, I second OFG on this. If Obama is reelected, that brings way worse policy outcomes than a Republican president. Bush could have never gotten away with this shit. It’s time to bring back the R’s.
I can’t believe we’re so far down the rabbit hole I think that.
It violates the 14th. Amendment.
Advance preview for Election 2012 because, natually, we must be very concerned about the outcome of next year’s presidential election. I do watch MSNBC, and Chris Matthews talks this shit every fucking day. Or, if not, nearly every fucking day. House and Senate races, too. Excited? We should all be, correct? Here are the Scenarios:
Scenario #01: Republicans win back the White House and Senate. (Due to unemployment percentage points not falling below magic number — historical referenced — required for incumbent to hold the White House.) House increases with Rs, because districts in Obama’s 2008 column flip to R and there’s no way of preventing an increase for GOPs. President Barack Obama becomes the fourth party pickup president flipped out of the White House after one term since the post-Civil War (following 1888 Grover Cleveland, 1892 Benjamin Harrison, and 1980 Jimmy Carter). Republicans — who haven’t won a presidential contest since the 1980s by a margin greater than 2.46% — win by no greater than 2.45%. Electoral College vote: no greater than 299. (Oh, how lucky can Michele Bachmann get?!)
Scenario #02: Obama wins re-election. Status quo, as well, with same parties having control of House and Senate. Moderate gain for Obama, in popular-vote margin (like 1996 Bill Clinton and 2004 George W. Bush, each just under a gain of 3%), due to “polarization” b.s. analyses [red states vs. blue states]. 2012 would prove to be very underwhelming. Electoral College vote (color trading: flip Indiana from D to R; Georgia, Missouri, and Montana from R to D): modest increase into the 370s. (Behind the scenes? …Peachy!)
Scenario #03: Obama landslides the hell out of whomever the GOP nominates. In 2008, he beat John McCain by 7.26% but, in 2012, would come closer to 17.26%. This is enough to flip back control of the House to the Democrats because a lot of the Republican pickups from 2010 get flipped back, and many of those R incumbents who won their seats in single-digit margins also lose out. Seniors — who gave John McCain 53% nationally (an 8-point margin; up 3% from 2004 George W. Bush) — shift to the Ds, and it results in a blowout. Democratic Senate may net a couple more seats as well (there is a ceiling as to the potential: Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada, Tennessee. Would Dick Lugar be primaried out of re-nomination in Indiana?). Electoral College vote (all 2008 states retained plus… ): well into the 400s.
Which of these will happen? Well, I’d guess Jane to bet on No. 2. But here’s what not likely to happen: Rs win back White House while House flips back to Ds. Obama wins re-election while Senate flips to the Rs. Voters are pretty consistent when dealing with whether to re-elect an incumbent. When opposition party fails to unseat president, you don’t see the incumbent’s party lose control of either house of Congress. (For the third scenario to happen, Obama would have to become the first president to do this since 1948 Harry Truman.)
What does this have to do with the article? Political consequences — but for whom? Scenario No. 3 should happen next year — not because Barack Obama will go down in history as the greatest president of the United States but — thanks to Paul Ryan and his plans to kill Medicare and the House and Senate Republicans lining up for it. (Credit, for saying “no,” to father-and-son Ron and Rand Paul, among others.) As David Frum put it, “Paul Ryan: 2012′s Goldwater?”
http://www.frumforum.com/paul-ryan-2012s-goldwater
http://theweek.com/bullpen/column/214182/how-ryan-set-up-obamas-comeback
Here’s hoping David, and not Jane, turns out to be correct!
The thing is, that “middle class” existence is disappearing for millions of people. At some point, even those who would prefer to remain blissfully ignorant will have to face reality. Maybe years of propaganda and marketing to us as “consumers” will leave many with an “oh well” attitude… that remains to be seen.
From PW’s mouth to Pelosi’s ears, just sent this.
*G*
See my #58.
And thank you Mz. Hamsher for this diary, methinks you have a solid finger on the pulse of these matters, it’s set up just like Public Option, TARP, FISA, etc.
Pelosi will fail us. But she’s gonna hear about it.
*GRR*
Well said!
Thank you.
“So IMO such an increase as you’re suggesting is also unworkable”
I don’t see how you are disagreeing with me let alone with what I said is unworkable.
Based upon what Obama’s done since he took office (the Too Small Stimulus, the Health Care Company Bailout, Bank “Reform” in Name Only, Doubling Down on the War Against an Adverb Everywhere, Bailing out TBTF Banks, and creating the Catfood Commission out of whole cloth) we should expect a “small” amount of “entitlement reform” on Medicare as the price to be paid for an increase in the debt ceiling… which was going to happen no matter what.
If this dumbass actually wins a second term we can kiss the New Deal reforms like SS and Medicaire goodbye forever. It is so discouraging to be rooting for a hopelessly deadlocked government as the best answer.
Oh, sorry, I guess I misunderstood.
I thought you were suggesting that one option might be for the R’s to just approve some sort of increase only for servicing the debt and not for paying other government obligations. I wasn’t really disagreeing with you since I agree they are considering that option cause I have heard them talk about it.
I was just voicing my opinion that that option IMO wouldn’t cut constitutional mustard. IMO the 14th amendment reads like once a law is passed obligating funds for certain things, that it becomes a debt owed by the government and that those obligations are valid. i.e. you can’t default on a those obligations.