Water Cooler – The Libyan Dictators Last Days

Flag of the Libyan opposition
Flag of the Libyan opposition by sierragoddess, on Flickr

The Revolution in Libya seems to be moving closer and closer to a conclusion tonight. The rebels already control a significant amount of the nation, the diplomatic staff out of county are defecting to the rebels in droves and perhaps most importantly the rebels control an estimated 80% of the oil production and shipping facilities.

This will allow them to not only field an army, as they are starting to do with the captured heavy weapons they already have, but to pay to further equip their fledgling military. This is probably as critical a step in this upraising as the Egyptian Army refusing to fire on the people the night that Mubarak did not step down as expected.

Sooner rather than later the Gaddafi regime is going to fall. This has become a full blown revolution and as the money of the regime is choked off they will have less and less ability to buy mercenaries and to keep their supporters loyal.

This uprising has to be far more concerning for the rest of the Arab world autocrats than even Egypt was. In Libya they have seen their worst nightmare, a popular uprising, which the military was ordered to suppress and failed to do so.

Until now rulers like the House of Saud and the Bahraini King might have been able to tell themselves that Ali in Tunisia and Mubarak in Egypt were not strong enough to do what was required to hold on to power. Even if that meant the blood of their people in the streets.

Now the young people in the Arab world have not only seen successful peaceful uprisings (at least successful in the sense of deposing the old government, we are still way up in the air as to what kind of government comes next for all these nations) and soon they will see what successful armed revolution will look like as well.

I am a lot more concerned about the armed revolutions as there is no way to keep the a powerful military out of the mix when this happens. All too often one dictator with a strong army is replaced with a new one.

Right now the rebel forces are being lead by a former Gaddafi General, Maj. General Suleiman Mahmoud, who was the Army Commander for Eastern Libya. His defection to the rebels added a lot of credibility to their cause but the question is he seeing this as a time to reform the Libyan system of government or is he eyeing the big chair himself?

The next few days should tell the tail in Libya. I don’t seen many paths for Gaddafi to maintain his control. The real question is how many Libyan’s will have to give their lives to remove this crazed dictator. Then as in Tunisia, and Egypt the question will be, what next?

What’s on your minds tonight Firedogs? The floor is yours.

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