In its lonely effort to fight unemployment, the Fed recently announced that it would purchase more Treasury and corporate bonds, a policy called quantitative easing. It is the second time the Fed has announced it would do this, so the shorthand is QE II. This policy hurts small savers and retired people with modest savings. I discussed the impact on them here and here.
QE II hurts wealthy retirees and big savers too, by forcing them into riskier investments, some of which are certain to cause losses, and all of which reduce the feeling of security.
This group has most of the money. According to the Fed’s Survey of Consumer Finance, in 2007, people in the second decile (the top 80-90%) of income, had a mean wealth of $609,100, (table 4) and financial assets of $237,600 (table 6.07 Means). People in the top decile had mean wealth of $3,315,600 and financial assets of $1,368,000. Just guessing, I’d say that as a group, retirees skew towards the high side of the mean, especially in the first 10 years of retirement. Their portfolios aren’t limited to savings accounts and CDs.
Standard advice for retirees is to get out of the stock market and into fixed income securities, like taxable bonds and municipal bonds. The idea is that once you retire, you are dependent on income from your investments or from sale of investments. You can’t build wealth from work, so your risk tolerance is lower. If you have to sell stocks at a low ebb, you will lose money you can’t replace. If you can live on your Social Security plus the income from your portfolio, you will feel safer, and you will be able to leave something for your family.
If you took this advice 10 years ago and moved heavily into bond funds, you have a problem. As bonds mature, the funds will buy new bonds with lower yields. Many bonds have call features, which permit the corporation to call them at some point. With interest rates very low, companies can refinance their bonds at lower rates. These two factors lead to lower income now and in the future.
What are you going to do? The only place you can look is investments that carry more risk. In fact, Ben Bernanke, the Fed Chair, says if we push people into the stock market, stock prices will go up, people will feel wealthier and will spend more. Retirees have enough money that if they are forced into stocks, stock prices would go up. It sure seems like overt bubble blowing.
Rising stock prices might encourage some younger people to buy, but this is bad for retirees. They don’t need stuff, so they won’t buy more. They don’t want more risk, and for good reasons, they don’t trust the stock market. It’s certain that a significant number of retirees will make mistakes or get swindled trying to increase their investment income. These losses will be caused by QE II.
There is widespread concern about whether QE II will work in our current situation, with low demand for credit by businesses and consumers. Michael Gerson, writing for the Washington Post, says that progressives think objections from conservatives are evidence of a conservative conspiracy to destroy the economy and President Obama’s reelection prospects. The column is a hack job, as my colleague Bill Egnor writes. Republicans are not interested in whether QE II will work. Their big concern is that it will debase the dollar. It’s hard to believe that they want to maintain the value of the dollar when other nations are ruthlessly propping up their currencies at the expense of US workers. Sovereign nations act in their interests with respect to their currencies, including most obviously China. Republicans argue that US decisions about its currency should be guided by what China might think, and they do it solely for political purposes.
Conservatives of both parties want us to adopt austerity policies, Herbert Hoover’s approach, now being followed by England and Ireland; and maybe we could reduce the minimum wage, like the Irish. They refuse to use fiscal policy, which would work, and would rebuild our infrastructure and prepare the nation for the future. Austerity won’t accomplish anything except preserve the privileges of wealth.
At least the Fed is trying to carry out its mandate under the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act and is trying to do something about employment. Let’s hope it works. When the likes of Savonarola Gerson propose policies that will help the millions of unemployed people, they can rejoin the Adult Conversation about the economy.



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So this is a way to steal the rest of the money.
“Austerity won’t accomplish anything except preserve the privileges of wealth.” Which is what the majority of Congress is being paid to do. What Obama will do is to be seen but I’m not betting on him doing very much for the rest of us. When he had a mandate and a majority he had little or no interest in doing much with it. Now that the right will claim the same in Jan. my guess is he’ll be very focused on carrying out this “new” right wing mandate. We need to see this guy for the GOPer he really is and resist him just as we resisted BV$H. he didn’t keep BV$H’s desk and rug and wall decor for nothing he fully intended to keep most of his policies as well and has.
Recommended.
You might ask, what is “Market Engineering”? See a run down here (link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_engineering#Computer_Aided_Market_Engineering )
I don’t see Quant easing ending up anywhere, but in the pockets of bankers. The added liquidity shores up bank balances, and is used to make investments in higher profit yielding developing economies.
It’s all bullshit.
I am not sure I really get what is going on here. The fed is buying long bonds I understand on the market, which will likely reduce the yield on them. But if you are happy with what they are paying you can hang on to them and continue to get the yield you bought them at. If you sell them, you will make a profit and then you will have to decide what to do with the proceeds ? Buy a car or stocks or a house out of foreclosure? Now GS may have another strategy. I think some worry that the policy will reduce the value of the dollar, just like China and others are doing. So what? That might help exports. I’m not at all sure this will do much of anything.
Thanks masaccio, but when I want to learn about Quantitative Easing I turn to a real expert.
http://twitter.com/SarahPalinUSA/statuses/1344787751895041
Well, didn’t even Bernanke rather quietly admit that more fiscal action will be necessary? Of course he said this at a time when the politics are against any fiscal intervention for the foreseeable future. Since he has made no sustained argument against the austerians, it smacks of ass covering. Maybe he wants to avoid the awkward position of Alan Greenspan who had to admit that “the world didn’t work the way he thought it did.”
The FED can print as much money as it wants (debasing the currency) by buying Treasury Bonds, and the employed can spend as much money as they have (creating the largest corporate profits America has ever seen), but until those holding them there profits ($2 trillion+ as of today) begin to hire the unemployed, unemployment will go ever higher. And new machines–replacing employed workers–will give us ever increasing rates of productivity (the shit they make that we all buy). Ain’t capitalism grand? Peace
“At least the Fed is trying to carry out its mandate under the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act”
Nope. The Fed is monetizing the debt because it doesn’t like the only other alternative. Default. QE2 has nothing to do with employment. It’s a desperate last ditch effort to keep the Fed in business and the Empire afloat. It will fail.
Austerity might help if its not to late. Austerity for Wall Street and the Pentagon I mean.
Cutting the Defense budget by 50% might help. Peace
Jeez, did he actually come out and say that? Push people into the stock market? Why the heck isn’t someone, somewhere (other than here) starting to scream about what’s going to happen to retirees? Maybe because no one cares?
Book Salon up with David Swanson’s War Is A Lie hosted by Russ Baker
I sure wish there were some movement afloat to NOT BUY ANYTHING. Okay, buy food, and gas for your car [but drive as little as possible] but don’t buy “Christmas Presents.” Instead, donate to a worthy cause in your gift-recipient’s name. I really, really want to take “consumption” out of the equation.
For many of us, this is necessity rather than choice. At our house we’re didn’t elbow others out of the way to get a good Black Friday deal on that flat screen tv. Hell, we bought NOTHING on Black Friday.
As I’ve been sitting here for the weekend watching football & being assaulted by all these ads for a “Lexus December to remember” and BMWs and smart phones, I keep wondering, “who are the people who have the money to buy this shit?”
Does anyone know, ’cause it sure ain’t our household.
Folks in our family are “giving” to each other’s favorite charity, including the local animal shelter, food bank, horse rescue and FDL.
I saw a flyer for what I thought was a great idea: at a local junior high, they’re having a “fair” one Saturday, to which they invite a number of local charities. People can go around to each charity’s table, speak with them, and “shop,” making a donation in the gift-getter’s name. The charity accepts the donation and writes out an acknowledgment/card that the donor can use for the gift. I thought this was terrific for all concerned and would love to see this idea spread, although it may be too late in the season.
Good question. I’m one of those people of whom you write, with a large portfolio that is earning bupkis, except for the gold holding. We are simply cutting back and waiting for balmier days. It is stupid not to do so, when you have to stretch your wealth out over 30 years and don’t know what the future holds. I had intended to cash in my real estate, but the returns are so low that even real estate is a better deal than government bonds.
A great article!
Charities and hand outs rob people of self esteem. Get rid of the FRB, and the fractional reserve scam. Issue our own People’s currency, establish non usurious lending facilities, and ship bankers to Torres Strait Islands where they can be frantically piling up sand burms, against the rising sea.
Shhhhh–you’re going to be accused of being un-American. Didn’t you hear about the Wa Po economics writer who said that people who didn’t spend money on Black Friday were going to cause more unemployment? According to her, we’re all just holding our money in savings and refusing to spend and causing more unemployment. I’m going to rush right out and cash in the couple of long-term CDs that represent my savings and are still earning something like a decent interest rate so I can shop until I drop! /s
The last thing we want is a deflation, so I am in favor of QE2.
Reitrees are mostly protected by social security COLA. Retirees have one of the lowest rates of poverty of any age group in America.
Pushing down interest rates means that the value of bonds held by current bondholders goes up. If your coupon is 5% and interest rates go to 3% in the market, your bond is more valuable.
Buying $600 billion of debt also means that the federal government can run the deficit for free for half a year.
The first QE was simply to accept mortgage lending on the books of the fed, when everyone was afraid to hold mortgage bonds. It just kept the housing market from going into a deeper dive than it did.
110 billion in new bonds issued – 110 billion in bonds bought by the Fed
At some point a devaluation must occur, and soon our money will be as worthless as a fourth century AD Roman coin after they lost the Romanian mines and went into making coins without much precious metal content. As I recall the empire soon split between east and west – and the west was more or less “gone” a few decades later.
The current trick of flooding the banking system with reserves that the banks do not use – thereby taking that potential money out of circulation – has to end soon.
Wealthy Retirees never are hurting – everyone in that group that I know has assets in China as they wait for the yuan to appreciate. – and they missed the 80% capital loss that many of those not in bonds and bank CD’s – but in Bank Stocks – experienced.
I understand the pain of planning a retirement based on a safe 6% return on AAA bonds in a stable currency – and then not having it – but China does look like a safety valve for at least part of that worry.
In terms of employment, QEII is false hope. In that sense, it’s worse than doing nothing because 6 months from now when everything is even more screwed up they are gonna say… golly gee, we tried everything! Then they roll out the big austerity plan.
As this diary points out, fiscal policy is needed. Fiscal policy and a national industrial policy.