On Tuesday, Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner made a bold statement on the pages of the Washington Post:
America is close to turning the page on this economic crisis. While far too many Americans are still out of work and face deep economic hardship, we have now reported three quarters of positive growth and the beginnings of job creation.
“Close to turning the page”? Really?
Most of Geithner’s op-ed is about the financial reform efforts, and I’ll direct you to Scarecrow’s fine response on that topic. What brings me back to Geithner’s op-ed this morning is this the latest news from Topeka, Kansas.
Spoiler alert: It’s not about “positive growth and the beginnings of job creation.”
In November 2009, the state of Kansas slashed its 2009-2010 budget for the fourth time, and just a month ago was round five of cuts. Now let’s make that six:
The Kansas government’s revenue shortfall surged Friday beyond the $450 million threshold to place more pressure on lawmakers to raise taxes or cut spending to balance the budget.
A group of state fiscal analysts and economists met to revise tax revenue estimates for the current fiscal year ending June 30 and the subsequent fiscal year ending June 30, 2011.
Despite six rounds of spending cuts that reduced government expenditures by $1 billion during the past two years, the Consensus Estimating Group reported the recession’s grip on tax revenue would require additional work to balance the budget.
The group concluded the Republican-led Legislature and Democratic Gov. Mark Parkinson must address a $70 million deficit in the current budget year. The deficit next fiscal year would be at least $450 million, but would escalate to $510 million if Medicaid and K-12 enhancements sought by the governor were included.
Geithner may think the country is “close to turning the page,” but the folks in Kansas beg to differ:
Alan Conroy, director of the Kansas Legislative Research Department, said the state’s economic recovery remained “anemic” with corporate and individual tax receipts suffering. The problem reflects an unemployment rate expected to remain above 6 percent for months, he said.
Unemployment in Kansas went up again last month, and Kansas is hardly alone. Bill McBride at Calculated Risk — home to some of the best economics charts online — notes that unemployment is a mess almost everywhere.
When we look at unemployment rates in each state since 1976 (click the link for a larger version of that chart at Calculated Risk), four of the five states with the highest unemployment rates right now are at their 35 year peaks (NV, CA, RI, and FL). Only three states have unemployment rates below their 35 year median levels (WV, LA, and ND). According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the March unemployment figures show “Forty-four states and the District of Columbia recorded jobless rate increases from a year earlier, 5 states had decreases, and 1 state had no change.”
This is “close to turning the page”?
Then there are the banks — all around the country. The FDIC closed another 8 banks yesterday, bringing the 2010 total up to a nice round fifty. By comparison, last year we didn’t hit fifty bank failures until July 2. It sure sounds like failures are speeding up, not slowing down — which is not exactly my idea of getting closer to turning the page. (The FDIC has a rather daunting table of its own, showing the bank failures since October 1, 2000.)
Perhaps the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has too much of a Wall Street mindset. He’d do well to look beyond the Big Board, and take a look at the rest of the nation.
Maybe he could talk to Alan Conroy before he writes his next op-ed.





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Of course, he just come out and say that he fucked up royally with respect to the bail-out and the inadequate stimulus package. Not too bloody likely.
Putting a more generous spin on things, Tim is still in banking mode, not treasury mode. Things are getting better when big banks are no longer going belly up and businesses are systematically being refused extensions on their line of credit. I think this last problem as eased somewhat since summer and fall 2008, when the financial system was literally shutting down. The problem is, that was then, and this is now.
Tim Geithner Needs to Get Out.
More OftenFixed it. In other words, when is the president going to get a clue and fire this idiot? And Larry Summers, while he’s at it…
Spot on fix.
And a few others while he is at it.
How long should it take to switch from Banking Mode to Treasury Mode? He’s been there about 15 months now already.
This entire administration is just too casual about the things the country needs. They seem to think that however much time it takes to fix things is just fine.
Maybe after a good thumping in November they’ll get a different message.
Thank you. Geithner’s Op-Ed is rather like the Bush administration’s EPA telling Ground Zero workers that the air is safe to breathe again. In fact, it remained highly toxic, just as this economy is for workers and middle managers alike.
But but but Peterr….
The DOW broke 11K again. Surely that means EVERYTHING is just dandy for the economy, right? Right?
/s
When he feels some heat any heat from the left. Right now he feels heat from the right, so he’s drifting right. The right doesn’t appear to have huge issues with Wall Street.
As President of the NY Fed and charged as one of chief regulators of Wall Street leading up to the collapse, where was he when Goldman Sachs and Lehman were committing securities and accounting fraud? He has a miserable record of failure when it comes to overseeing banks or the economy. How on earth could he ever be appointed and confirmed as Secretary of the Treasury? He’s the ultimate poster child for what’s wrong with America.
Of course, and DOW 35,000 is right around the corner.
/s
Heat on him personally, not his administration, not the Dems in Congress.
I think you meant to say “chief enablers” and not chief regulators. As Bill Black noted here at FDL in an email exchange with Jane (posted a year ago in March), regulators at the Fed are not exactly high on the totem pole:
That kind of sums it up well, don’t you think?
Summers, Rubin, and Geithner have always thought that our current economic and financial mess has been primarily a crisis in confidence. Hence all the happy talk. For those of us who are reality-based and look at the fundamentals, these guys have zero credibility. They will be talking this way up to the next depression, and even long after they have left office they will continue to praise themselves for “saving” the world financial system and whining about how the next calamity was not their fault.
As bad as state budgets are, they are likely to get far worse. I think the current shortfalls are in the $80 billion range. Last year they were $190 billion, and this year looks to be about as bad when all is said and done. State budgets, foreclosures, and unemployment are coming to be the bellwethers for the coming depression.
In Ca more than $17 billion has been cut from the schools. In my school district (elementary only) they are eliminating 24 teachers, classes go from 20 to 30,
all libraries closed and school year shortened from 180 days to 175. District has a shortfall of 2.5 million.
Back in the late 90s (IIRC), Sacramento passed a law that required lower student-teacher ratios, starting in the lowest grades and being phased in over time in the upper grades. Was that repealed to deal with the budget mess?
What is true for the State budgets is true for city budgets as well. In Nashville, where unemployment is running at 9.7%, the Mayor wants every department but the schools to take a 7.5% cut in next year’s budget.
Does that mean it’s okay for the Fed to ignore outright fraud?
Gee, do you suppose the state of Kansas might get a clue and raise taxes on those making more than $500,000 per year? There are plenty of wealthy individuals in Kansas. Duh.
I really don’t know about that. It’s a terrible mess. The district that I live in is going to be required to pay the State $665,000 during the 09-10 school year – it’s called “Share the Pain” and doesn’t make any sense at all.
“Close to turning the page?” More like close to closing the book. Watch these guys declare the problem solved, pronounce their efforts a success and tell us it’s time to move on. Meanwhile, more Americans will be written-off and become non-entities that we’re supposed to ignore.
Still, they can’t make upwards of 20% of the working population just go away. When 1 in 5 workers is unemployed or under-employed, angry, and facing hunger, homelessness, and family disintegration, there are going to be some real problems. Add to this the enormous numbers of guns in private circulation and plan to endure some real unpleasantness.
Even the GOP members of the legislature have resigned themselves to tax increases. The problem, as the governor noted the other day, is that no one set of tax increases has enough support yet to pass. The question is not “will there be tax increases?” but “which taxes will be increased, and by how much?”
The governor’s statement on the latest revenue shortfall projection said this:
That’s going to be one ugly legislative session.
The Ca lege will never solve this since they require a 2/3 vote and the Rs are the absolute party of “no.” Besides that, the lege won’t have the brains or the guts. And they make $113,098!
By “close to turning the page,” Geithner simply means that with the paper re-inflation of asset values the wealthy have stopped demanding the heads of government functionaries on a spike.
Why is it so hard to understand that when Obama, Geithner et al talk about “America” and “the people,” they don’t mean us?
What Batboy said is absolutely true – we are getting ready to turn the page to Chapter 9 (local government bankruptcy). Then on the international level we’re getting ready to turn the page on there being more than one sovereign debt crisis in the future.
Maybe they’re figuring that these people will be homeless and therefore unable to vote (no fixed address). It’s still hard to see how they expect to sell people on “things are getting better” when the people they’re trying to sell are looking at their communities starting figuratively to crumble around them: teachers, policemen, firemen laid off.
Saw a post by someone called “bookofdisquiet” over at WaPo responding to Geithner’s Orwellian-speak and, well, I couldn’t say it any better than this:
“This is a classic case of fighting yesterday’s war–remember the “reform” after Enron? Yeah, that worked out didn’t it. So we decide to regulate derivatives and form a central clearing house, less leverage–whatever. Wall St. will merely create new “complex” products traded in the shadows — they’ll just create new legal entities (formerly “special investment vehicles”) that will get around any capital requirement. This is not a fix, this is phony posturing to appease a clueless and angry American public. If you believe this will stop the greed and ruthlessness of a Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan then I’ve got a bridge I’d like to sell you.
Soon as this bill passes they’ll have 500 lawyers figuring out how to get around it. The only way to change things is to make these bankers personally liable for their failures–make them be legal partnerships. I guess 300 million dollars spent lobbying against reform gets you a toothless consumer protection agency housed in the fed and a sorry excuse for a Treasury Secretary’s vague panderings.
We’re all getting rolled and our so-called leaders know it. These a**holes can only destroy so many pensions until something breaks–it will happen again. This is not reform– this is cowardice and complicity in the greatest theft in world history.”