The topline news is that Scott Murphy (D-NY), who has gone back and forth on health care, has come out in favor of the legislation. Murphy was a “No” last time. His vote makes it seven Democrats who voted against the bill last time coming around to voting for it this time.

That means that Democrats could survive a Stupak bloc as big as eight and win this thing, if you do the math.

For now, confirmed Yes votes hit 200, with 209 opposed. With leaners, we’re at 207-212. And if they get all the Yes votes who voted that way the last time, they have 217.

Ellsworth’s Yes vote is one of the key ones needed by the leadership. That makes it 198-209, 206-212 with leaners. And importantly, under my metrics outlined in a previous post it could make Democrats as close as two votes away from passage.

This is the first major news of the day. Allen Boyd, a Blue Dog from the Florida panhandle, will vote for the health care bill. U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd, who voted against national health care last November, said today he will vote for the new bill when it comes to the House floor. The Monticello [...]

Tom Perriello has decided to vote for the health care bill, per CNN. I had him as a lean Yes in my whip count. So that makes it 196-208, with still 204-211 with leaners. None of the true undecideds have announced today.

Nothing looks confirmed at the moment. But the moment House leaders reach agreement with elements of the Stupak bloc is the moment I stop ding whip counts. Because then, health care passes without too much trouble.

And what’s the deal? A future, standalone vote on the Stupak amendment, in the House and the Senate.

I don’t take Peter DeFazio’s carping about the health care bill entirely seriously. But his substantive argument – that Democratic leaders took out a Medicare reimbursement measure that would have changed geographic disparities – could shift other members of the caucus: “Unless they put that back in, I can’t support it,” Defazio said, referring to [...]

Noted left-wing activist Bruce Bartlett read David Frum’s recent survey of a bunch of Teabaggers, and finds their grasp of the issues, erm, lacking.

Congress may be too far down the road with this bill to change course and save themselves — and us. But before Democrats cast this vote, which could endanger not only their Congressional majority but their ability to “fix” things later on, they should consider the first rule of patient safety: first, do no harm.

The FDL health care team has been covering the health care debate in Congress since it began last year. They have put together a fact sheet to help readers sort through the myths and facts of the health care bill [full fact sheet after the jump--check it out!]. . .

We’re going to start to see this firm up, and we can focus attention on the last holdouts. We can determine if all those No-Yes flippers can offset the Stupak bloc, and if enough of them can get peeled off, that’s basically what it’s come down to. But there still may be some surprises.