So, Obama and the Democrats have triumphed in their heroic struggle to protect the little guy, right? The rapacious health care industry is licking its wounds and wondering how it’ll ever survive, right? Umm… not so much. As David Ignatius points out:
The winners included many hospital and nursing home chains. Also up were some major drug-makers and drug distributors. And while results for health insurers were mixed, some of the biggest and best-managed companies, such as Aetna and United Health, saw gains.
Attempts to decode the stock market are often delusional, but here’s what I think Wall Street is saying: The health-care sector can anticipate a whole lot more government money headed its way, and the new legislation won’t do much to cut costs – or health-industry revenues and profits.
No kidding. After all their rhetoric about how terrible the health care industry is, Obama and the Democrats have just delivered them a captive market of 16 million new customers – new customers who will actually serve as a passthrough for $464 billion (p. 22 of CBO PDF) of government money to the health care sector over the next ten years. And all without any competition or cost controls to keep make them honest.
True, the insurance industry will be required to spend 80-85% of that on health care (or maybe not), but that still leaves them with at least $70 billion… and the hospitals and drug companies with the rest. And that’s not even counting what their millions of new customers will have to pay out of pocket for premiums and copays and deductibles.
So while the Republicans talk tough right now about how they’re going to repeal this horrible bill which socialistically takes over the health care industry by throwing staggering sums of money at it, it’s just not ever going to happen. Not because it would be politically unpopular, but because AHIP and PhRMA simply won’t let them. It’ll be like watching a bizarro mirror image of the death of the public option, as repeal magically shrinks from a must-have moral-imperative campaign promise to a tiny expendable sliver of the GOP’s grand tort reform/HSAs vision.




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Hey Eli!
Hey egr!
So, no repeal?
I’ve said all along this was just a long-term Wall Street bailout for the sickness industry.
The only health it insures is the health of the companies that profit from human sickness and suffering.
(Oh, and the Democratic Party – but perhaps that’s best seen as part of that previous group anyway.)
Oi Eli, as per usual spot on.
Meanwhile, Rachel Maddow is doing a ‘Situation Room’heightened sense of anxiety reporting on some bricks and vandalism.
Almost makes me think of the Bush scare us vs them sense of urgency.
Goebbels must be smiling in his grave, control the media, control the message, and play the little people like a fucking violin.
It will be just like the mirror image of the PO: They’ll campaign on it, and then do nothing.
Great characterization. It will be a bitter schadenfreude, though.
So both sides get screwed. Well, at least that part’s fair.
3rd party time
or sneak into canada?
And, gee, whose 401ks are going to be effected by these bills? Oh, I know, all the people who lost so much last year, and that’s going to make future reforms a whole lot harder.
I just think it’s so funny that the GOP’s response to #hcr not having tort reform at its core is…. to sue.
Move to Costa Rica with Rush…
And the main reason the R’s were against it at all (other than the superficial ones of not wanting to support D’s and not wanting to spend a dime on useless eaters) is as part of Obama’s deal to sell out single payer/public option and keep drug prices high, the sickness industry agreed to put their corporate money into D – not R – coffers.
It was just a competition to see which side (D or R) could deliver the cattle to slaughter at the lowest cost.
D’s won the contract.
We need to ask the Repeal GOP: which parts, exactly? The parts that go into effect immediately, like letting young adults stay on their parents’ policies until they are 26? The parts that mean there’s no more pre-existing exclusions for children? The parts that let uninsurable folks into high-risk pools immediately?
Because they’ll need to start with the parts that go into effect right away, right? Let’s be sure they have a chance to be specific. “Repeal? Okay, which parts?”
The GOP can usually be counted on to be tone-deaf like that. I wonder how they’ll cleanse their case of the Orly taint.
Hey, Eli, why aren’t you on Twitter? Despite your great success here with the longer form, the 140-character Tweet limit seems tailor-made for your previous Eschaton persona.
The part they’re most worked up about seems to be the mandates, but there’s no way the insurance industry will ever let them take that away.
I know, it’s ironic, right? I just can’t get excited about it, even though it does seem like a good fit on paper. So to speak.
“Useless eaters” is one of the most revelatory epithets I have ever heard. I actually had a plain gray t-shirt made with that on the front a few years ago. I can’t remember where I heard it first. Was it Pilger? Damn, I sold all of my books…
some stupid Dems are trying to develop commercials saying they fought and beat the health care industry? this is why the current dems in DC are such idiots
hint, to phony Dems in congress don’t make any commercials talking about how you fought Health Insurance Companies, the GOP will knock those Commercials out the park.
I could see the commercials now, DEMS fought the Health Insurance Companies
guess who WON? You BETCHA the HEALTH INSURANCE COMPANIES BEAT THE DEMS BY A LANDSLIDE.
Dems it would be like me saying I fought Mike Tyson, and he knock me out in 5 seconds with one punch, yeah I fought him, but it wasn’t much of a fight.
some of these Dems don’t get it, people are not laughing with you they are laughing at you it is big difference.
…Or claiming that getting knocked out counts as a win.
Ahhhh. Tort Reform. A return to substance. The solution to all society’s ills. The silver bullet to the werewolf of socialism.
Thank God for Republicans who look out for my best interests./s
When I first discovered Twitter, I fully expected you to have taken it over completely. But, yeah, you should check it out sometime. Ease in, maybe.
There is an addictive quality to it, of course. As if.
True. And because the AHIP has been such a reliable revenue stream for Pols (Rethuglican & Dimmocrat) and now that they have been made even more powerful by this bill – no one will dare to cross them. That said, the subsidies for low-income citizens are fair game.
Rethugs will cry a river over the mandate, but they don’t dare cross that divide. AHIP can count on Rethuglicans to ensure their continued success on our backs. Either way, AHIP and Pharma win.
Unless they turn 180 degrees and do everything from here on out for the benefit of citizens over corporations, Democrats will face a humiliating landslide defeat in November.
Then, things will be even worse.
Hahaha. I just do not feel the urge, plus I’d have, like, three followers.
Tort reform is needed to prevent uppity quadriplegics from getting more than $300,000 for a lifetime debilitating injury.
Let’s see. $300K divided by 30 years = $10K a year. Sure, a quad could live on that. Right?
Hey, and what if he dared to live longer than that? This must be quashed!!
/s
And now, post-Citizens United, there’s no limit to how much money and where it goes.
I think of this as selling the American people to Wall Street (since they’re the ones who own the businesses) like a bond – it costs a certain amount (payback to D’s) and in return pays off at a guaranteed rate every year.
Of course, in our case the principal can never be repaid, so it’s not quite like a bond, more like…what’s the word?…oh yeah – slavery.
> Then, things will be even worse.
Or, if one looks at this like a disease, and since disease as the messenger of healing just makes the symptoms ever larger and more painful until the person accepts they’re sick and must do something to heal – then one would say things will be even better.
I hope things get a lot better soon.
My fall back has always been that depression will occur well before most of this godawful bill will go into effect in 2014 and consequently little of it will actually come to pass.
Twitter is the Antichrist.
…And then there’s that.
The Rubes don’t know what tort reform is. So they say, “Why not? If Republicans like it and p*ssy Democrats don’t wan’t it, I’m all for it. Whatever it is.”
See. whenever there’s a lawsuit, there’s some TRIAL LAWYER trying to game the system and the victim is always a fraud, unless its a Republican. /s
Yes, always a beam sunlight.
Yep.
LOL.
You gotta love the irony here. The Dems. pass essentially an Industry friendly GOP style bill and the Gopers will now run against it as if it’s a LOL Communist take over no less. The General sheeple are so brainwashed after 30 yrs. of Reageanistas telling them anything the Gov’t does is Socialism they’ll believe it. Then once back in power these same lovers of Liberty will promptly get rid of any parts of this bill that get in the way of these same companies making even more profit.
All the “healthcare” stocks were up on Friday and down on Monday. Suckers were buying on Monday looking for a quick buck and Goldman was shorting them. After all the suckers dumped their shares, Goldman bought to cover.
Linky?
Feels like a hot irony. You’re right, of course. Political jiu-jitsu. Sometimes they’re not so dumb.
My biggest worry during the whole healthcare reform process was that Obama would just keep moving to the right until he came up with a bill the GOP would support.
I’m still kind of amazed that they didn’t think this one was good enough, or else they calculated (correctly) that Obama would ram it through anyway and they’d get to keep their hands clean and make electoral hay off of a bill they would have killed to pass a few years ago.
It’s not that Twitter is the Antichrist, it’s that
Sarah Palinthe Antichrist tweets.I guess that means I have to get off of Facebook, then.
That was probably the GOP’s greatest fear, too.
Astute! But it looks like it might backfire, big time.
I was just checking the Supreme Court sight for new opinions. Much to my surprise they have spiffied it up. Lots of color and regal red. Before it was barebones and mostly some washed out bluish color.
http://www.supremecourt.gov/
Now, that made me laugh. Excellent.
R’s know that that in the end, the uppidy quadraplegics will take it sitting down.
Americans identify less and less with their Government, so I would definitely stop calling it Government money and instead at least call it public money or perhaps Your money.
That assumes that R’s aren’t perfectly happy–even jubilant–letting sick, uninsured children die from lack of access to a doctor.
I was actually tempted to say something like that, but I didn’t want to veer too close to conservative style anti-tax/anti-poor rhetoric.
“One of these days, those damned Democrats are going to elect a real Republican, and we will be screwed,”
They’re unhappy about all the money those children’s parents could have been paying to the healthcare industry.
Now, I’m laughin’ and cryin’ at the same time.
Wall Street in funny. For anticipated good news, there is a tendency in the herd to buy on the rumor and sell on the news. For anticipated bad news, there is the tendency to sell on the rumor and buy on the news.
As a leading indicator, it is not very good beyond six months out. As best I can tell, the major cash infusions into the healthcare industry will not occur until the exchanges and subsidies get going. So if this is a market move and not just an example of a complicated profit-taking, there is expectation that the provisions that take place in the next six months will generate profits.
Those are: business tax credits for buying health insurance for employees, coverage of children with pre-existing conditions, and other parts of the bill being implemented in the next six months.
So this movement doesn’t price in the expected bonanza in 2014. Too much can happen between now and then to affect that expected $464 billion bonanza.
Now if individual investors are bidding up the prices because of the expected bonanza, you might see a later correction that lowers these prices. And of course the media will hop on this as proof that the bill is failing.
No doubt the industry came out of this with the best they could expect, but they lost their freedom to deny coverage, deny benefits or rescind coverage, and that takes away a significant part of their business model. And that loss of freedom is why they used their connections in Congress to fight the bill so hard.
Your analysis of the economic incentives that prevent repeal is on target, but there are two efforts at repeal–through the Congress and through the courts. When the industry starts feeling that the AGs suit has traction, they might call in some chips with the GOP.
It is an interesting bind that both the GOP and the industry are in. To avoid further legislative action, the industry will have to behave at least until there is no longer the public anger over healthcare costs. Can they be that restrained until the big bonanza comes in 2014? Ladies and gentlemen, place your bets.
And the GOP cannot repeal the bill without repealing the promised bonanza.
Which means further tinkering with the bill that became law today.
Ah, I see your point now. Yes, of course. They would have been delighted to pass this bill years ago. The pesky consequence of allowing sick children to see a doctor wouldn’t have stopped the greed.
But it’s true.
Campaigning against
Ronald ReaganBarack Obama is their worst nightmare.Sadly serious about this.
And about to get a lot harder. 31 MILLION new customers under threat of fines. Poor babies.
Exactly. I had a post at my place last year:
Two Opposing Views Of The Healthcare Crisis
Facebook bans a gay youth organization but allows Palin to paste crossshairs all over the place. I guess after all gun violence is wholesome whereas teh gay is not.
All Obama and friends did was pass Save Health Insurance Today.
And yet the so-called progressive blogosphere is at one with The One.
Makes you want to puke.
My own observations. I checked the closing prices on Friday at market closing for Humana, Wellpoint, Cigna, and others. I checked again yesterday. They all closed lower. Highest in the AM, sank in the afternoon. Day traders anticipated a rise like on Friday. Goldman fucked-em.
Oh, indubitably. Hence the emotional reaction. I’ve never been a Democrat (independant), but I’ve nearly always cast my lot with that nominally humanistic party. It is sad to see them triangulate, spastic-ally, to the point where they become indistinguishable from the right.
Thanks for the elaboration. I’ll follow up for my own comfort tomorrow, but I can take your word for it for now. Cheers.
Do they, now? I pay as little attention to these social-networking thingies as I can.
Their own “business friendly” Blue Dog and “New Democrat” blocs along with the go-along-to-get-along, lying progressives equal Republican-lite by default. Obama is leading them to the biggest defeat they’ve ever been a part of.
The real question is how this country has gotten by for so long by being so inefficient.
You got it. This is the kind of thing they are good at.
And I forgot to even mention the huge rollback of abortion rights, probably because it doesn’t really affect the health industry’s profitability much either way…
Haven’t read comments, but Eli, if yer lurking, WRT:
What I’ve read today says the nursing chains, and coverage for nursing home patients is gonna be cut by the feds in terms of medicare and medicaid. Where do the chains profit if the government isn’t subsidising them?
I’m confused on this, hope you or Pups can help me out on it?
Except, that these stocks have been rallying for a year now, most up around 75%, as each consumer-friendly provision got stripped from the bill.
I would watch out tomorrow.
Don’t worry. It’s ok with NARAL – I’m sure everything is fine.
I already puked. Go with your feelings, say I.
I read about the gay youth being denied on PageOneQ and about Palin on TPM, Raw Story or Think progress. I’m not a facebook member either. I don’t want their software telling other people what I’m doing.
A bail out it is, be it for the HUGE amounts of boomers headed to medicare and off private rolls, or because thru consolidation and over valuation and poor stock market behaviors (just like housing and radio and many other industries) the private insurance and medical delivery industries aren’t worth the paper they depend on for valuation.
I’m slowly coming around to believing it’s a bit of both. And those industries have the money, clout and ownership of the markets and our government to GET what they want and need.
We the people, get diddly squat.
Loved your comment.
The country is smoke and mirrors. Bubbles. We got along on bubbles. Tech Bubble, Real Estate/Finance Bubble. The bubbles pop. Those who anticipate the pop make money shorting. Jobs are gone. Credit is gone. “We” – meaning the wealthy – make money by moving money. All the bad debt, all the credit default swaps, collateralized debt obligations, negative assets are still in the banks’ inventory. They changed the rules so that don’t have to show it til they sell it. They still retain all those bad assets. Obama let them cook the books. Where’s the next bubble?
Absolutely love your title by the way. you have a way with words.
Privatization has been proven NOT to work since the 70′s and then Reagan.
Well, not for the benefit of we the people.
Hail The Masses, Comrade!!!
*G*
Or, a splash of good Scottish Whiskey, perhaps?
Thanks! I’ve, uh, kinda used it before, though.
Not so fair, but customary it seems since Reagan.
Earlier than that if you lived in CA, when he was Gobber.
*G*
Not all segmenst of the health care industry are the same. Those that rely on Medicare and Medicaid might react differently than the insurance companies and the pharma comnoanies, e.g., depending on the details of how the bill treats them. I don’t care enough to sort out the details myself, but most of the industry will do very well under this bill, and their stocks reflect that.
I would suspect that this is more of a sell on the news event though, and tomorrow will tell. The general euphoria about enacting major legislation may have delayed the selling until today was concluded. We’ll probably see a pullback tomorrow. Not for sure, but probably.
Obama, BEST Republican Prez, Evah.
This ‘reform’ could have NEVER happened with the GOP in charge.
It Took A Dem.
Hmmm . . . that’s a book title, that is.
“It Took A Dem” Subtitled: “Or The Donkey”
/s
Commercial real estate, and credit card based securities. Not necessarily in that order.
You have bizzilions here, hoss, and I hope you know it. *G*
It took a Trojan Horse. That’s what Obama is. Sold himself as a reformer, then did most of the same things a Republican would have done.
At this rate the depression will likely be the least of our problems.
Total collapse of the union looms, IMHO, financially, socially, structurally.
With or without the depression . . . I can’t imagine what the USA will be in 2020.
Exactly! What is Obama’s Achilles Heel? Vanity? Ego? Lust for power?
I believe this is true.
Do you think Smart money is short-selling REITs?
Reality.
It took a Trojan Horse. That’s what Obama is. Sold himself as a reformer, then did most of the same things a
RepublicanReptilian would have done.fixed it for ya … we all know they are fucking cold blooded!
Jane Hamsher is upstairs!
Hey Colorado: Help Deliver Public Option Petitions to Michael Bennet Tomorrow
I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as just another weak, feckless centrist until he showed how hard he was willing to work (and how much he was willing to sell women out) to pass a reform bill *without* a public option.
Me too. I’m not ashamed to admit that I thought that he was a “make me do it” kinda guy. So I am now abashed.
I’m always behind on comments it seems and it’s cuz of comments like YOURS which slow me down and make me GUFFAW, GUFFAW, I say.
Wipin eyes . . . still snorkin and nose is now plugged . . . SCHNORT!!!!!
Ok, bettah.
Well, it would seem that if reality is his Achilles Heel then it’s time for reality to start impinging on his bubble. There is a need for people on the streets exposing the hypocrisy and duplicity of the “change maker.”
Obama has set the corporate servitude bar so high the Republicans will never reach it. He makes their Medicare Part D sellout look like chump change.
Maybe now that they’ve been completely outclassed in the graft and corruption game the only path by which the GOP can oppose the Dems is to become genuine. advocates for the common good…
Nah.
Don’t know, I don’t follow them specifically. I trade S&P 500 futures exclusively, so I mostly do big picture, concept-type analysis. But the same easy money bomb that brought you the residential housing bubble and collapse was operating in commercial RE and credit-card securities as well, in fact all the way up the investing food chain, and I expect all to collapse, and some will be from levels you never even heard of or thought about.
Well, I guess the silver lining is that now we all know what he is really about. Blinkers off.
Dang you for reminding how much I miss this guy. Hey Rube!
Sniff.
Not really dangin ya, just . . . ahh hell, you know. Ya Rube.
We’re all rubes.
*G*
Pretty much OT, but if tanbark is around….
tb, have you tried commenting on Hullabaloo? Seems she’s gone to ground.
Nice FDL website, by the way.
Makes DKos look like a bunch of…………….. Dem, centrist, Blackwaterdog photo enthusiasts.
It’s what ya DON’T know that will kill ya hoss.
He’s wise to the word.
;-)
Snark’s runnin hot, and heavy and high tonite.
I’m behind, still.
Catchin up, though.
I hope to catch CT just in time to rag and praise him in the same speech.
*G*
A Dragon Is Always Polite In Company.
Nicely done. I sure couldn’t do that.
Whistling approval. (see old sci fi book about Venusian Dragons)
*G*
Tanbark is an old net buddy and bluegrass buddy of mine . . .
You know him, of him? He’s good . . *G*
And Digby gone to ground? What’s that mean?
I’ve been a bit, erm, critical of her and others lately.
Lisa Derrick is upstairs!
Golleeee!! It’s the Revenuers!!!
Radio industry is dying.
For the first time since Marconi, the value of a stick is going down, and all them consolidations and mergers and the over inflated valuations of good will and such are FINALLY killin the dying mediu.
And TV is next.
You sir, I am in great accord with regarding overvaluations, inflations, bubbles and the hedges, short sales, naked short sales, phantom stocks and more horrid practices generated thru lack of regulation, in terms of it all gonna come crashing down.
It’s all a house of cards.
You ever read THIS Site, And It’s Anchor Story About Such Matters?
Puke? You want something that makes you want to puke? I know progressives are not supposed to show any emotions that are negative, but holy cow! Have these people all flipped their g-damn minds or what??
Join The Netroots In Saying “Thank You/Happy Birthday” To Speaker Pelosi!I was talking about doing this anyway, but since the good people of Daily Kos have already run with the ball, here’s something a lot of us will want to support:
This Friday, March 26 happens to be Nancy Pelosi’s 70th Birthday!
Given how much serious ass she kicked in herding cats, twisting arms and otherwise corralling 219 Democrats into passing the most sweeping (if flawed) overhaul of the U.S. healthcare system in 45 years, I thought it would be a great idea to do a repeat of the famous 2004 Barbara Boxer Rose Campaign to celebrate Speaker Pelosi’s 70th birthday.
So, I took the easy route: I simply contacted the same national florist delivery service that was used 6 years ago, got a callback from Tina at Coast to Coast Florist, and lo and behold, we’re all set!! So, here’s the deal:
Coast-to-Coast Florist is gonna give us the same special pricing that they gave for the Boxer campaign: Just $10 to send 3 roses direct to Speaker Pelosi’s Washington D.C. office!To add your order, simply call: 1 866 596 1860. You can send more than 3 roses, but it’s a flat $10 per batch of 3.
They’ll take your name and credit card info, and you’ll be all set.They can take orders right up through Thursday evening. All roses will be delivered to her D.C. office on Friday, as a combination Thank You/Happy Birthday from those of us who admire her amazing accomplishment in pulling this thing off.
Other ways to say thanks:
Join the facebook group wishing Speaker Pelosi a happy birthday and thanking her for healthcare reform. (Must log in after following link.)
Write her a thank you note.
Donate money to the Speaker
Now that my friends, makes me want to vomit. Literally. Jane? Jane? Have you seen this Jane? These people have completely lost their g-damn minds!!!!! These are progressives? Good Gawd, they are the Dems own Tea Party! Completely nutso in the head.
No, but I’ll check it out tomorrow. Eyes hurt, toddling off to bed.
Hello Larue,
The world shared Steve Gilliards’s wonderful enthusiasm for World Cup 2006. Much fun. TB was there, as was I and many hundreds……..from across the world.
He posts on Digby’s site. Apparently posting is ‘down’, so, knowing that TB posts here, I just thought I might inquire.
You’re right. New Democrat Obama was always lurking behind the facade of Candidate Obama.
The whole stock market has been rallying since last year. Have these stocks been rising faster than the market?
Um, no. See insufficient penalties.
Oops.
Gap in health care law’s protection for children: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jYnajhWrPEXihcCrpRNfUKN7rN-AD9EKO82G2
Another Obama lie:
http://www.breitbart.com/print.php?id=D9EKO82G2
Size and depth of capital?
If the Repubs weren’t also in the pockets of the health care industry, they could put together some really effective commercials talking about how the “health care industry took Democrats to the cleaners, and now they’ll be taking you.”
The Very Clever Health Care Industry, however, has played this very smart: Dems are now in bed with them and can’t speak against them [despite Obama's phony "outrage," and Repubs are their natural constituency ["privatize everything, preferably with public dollars"], so who’s left to fight these guys?
I think you’d better spend a little time perusing the various diaries hereabouts describing the DETAILS of the bill. [And stop relying on the press releases from the DNL and OFA.]
They can still do all these things. They may have to do it via claims of the patient’s “fraud.” They may have to pay an itty bitty fine. They aren’t going to have to worry about any Big Bag Enforcement folks policing them. So believe me, they can, and will do it.
We’ve only begun to see what the health insurance industry’s legal and accounting minds can find to their advantage. In 2,000 plus pages, written with the support and input of their experts? Oh, I think a few goodies will surface.
The financial services industry is no doubt waiting in the wings with some exploitative new credit account to help people to stay out of the grasp of the irs.
they’ll remember this as obama’s ending-welfare-as-we-know-it moment. or maybe his sister souljah, for the corporate american audience.
Yep, it was all about which political party could secure their power (reign) by keeping their coffers full with corporate dollars. It had nothing to do with improving our broken and corrupt health care system. Given the people had another agenda Obama and the Democrats had to use as much deception and manipulation as the Republicans.
RESPONSE TO TARHEELDEM #112:
Not sure about details of actual increase, I don’t break it down that way. I think the correct view is, for an industry supposedly under socialist attack, even a rise commensurate with the overall market sends a strong signal about how the bill was expected by the smart money to ultimately affect the industry.