Hey, anything much happen at the ‘ol FDL blog today while I was busy? Harydyharhar I’m kidding.
But while clearly healthcare is the Top Story of the day, the month, the year, it’s not in fact the only Big Story out there. Indeed, it could be argued that in the long run climate change, which has also been in the news lately, is even more important than healthcare reform, desperately important as that is. Won’t matter if we have single payer or not if we end up making the planet uninhabitable for our sort of bipeds, you know.
Which raises the question of whether or not Copenhagen did us any good, especially after the absurd ratfucking involving hacked emails and a whole bunch of lying. Opinions differ. Here is the glass half empty position, with the glass being half full of pollution — Kevin Grandia:
World leaders failed to deliver a legally binding deal in Copenhagen that will begin to reduce the world’s greenhouse gas emissions that are the cause of climate change.
It’s that simple.
While we can point to the attempted happy face that politicians are trying to put on the so-called “Copenhagen Accord” that came out of this two-year negotiating process, the bottom line is that what has been delivered here is a promise to do something later on down the road.
Richard Littlemore is also not camping happily: “here is, finally, a Copenhagen Accord – a deal that is so unfair, so unambitious and so devoid of commitment that the countries of the world could agree only to ‘take note’ of its existence.”
Conversely and on the other hand, Andrew White & Daniel Weiss see a glass full of hope:
The international negotiations on climate change wrapped up Dec. 19 in Copenhagen. The conference achieved an interim agreement, known as the Copenhagen Accord, which could put the major polluting nations on a pathway to reducing global warming pollution, and it continues to set the expectation for U.S. domestic action on climate change.
Much work remains, but there were also numerous notable achievements and meaningful insights into how the United States can gain from leading the world toward a new international clean-energy agreement.
So who’s right? Hell, I don’t know. Both Grist and DeSmogBlog are excellent resources that I read regularly. I am inclined to the grimmer point of view, as I am by nature a grouchy bastard, but read them both. (And this).
I will venture two conclusions, though. First, I do not blame Obama for the results of the talks. I find this account of what happened quite convincing, an assessment that I hope does not cause too much upset to the preconceptions of certain of our wonkish friends. And I say this despite the testimony of the Cuban Foreign Minister, though that is certainly comical. And since I’m feeling Christmasy and generous, I will give this fellow kudos for conceding that “I think that people are justified in being disappointed about the outcome in Copenhagen.”
But the more important conclusion, by far, is that whatever about international agreements, the most important political fight of our lives — and the lives of our children — is going to be over climate change. And that fight will, and must, take place next year. Because despite all the anti-science horseshit being flung about, 2010 may very well be the last chance America will ever have to do something meaningful about the gravest threat our nation, and humanity, has ever faced. Hell, it may even be too late now….
If you thought healthcare was and is nasty, say hi to the fight over climate change legislation. Here, though, polite compromise and the hope for gradual progressive improvement just won’t be enough. The science says so. Hence: now or never! Gird your loins, or whatever it else you need girded, because if we don’t win this next year, game over man. Game over.



186 Comments












Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About Firedoglake
Thersday!!!
Thersday!
I fear we are doomed as hell will freeze over and we will have hell on earth before the Republicans and corporate Dems allow any legislation to seriously curb emissions.
Yeah, I’d bet that will happen. Can’t go down without a fight, though. And I’m Irish enough to like lost causes more so than any others.
damn FDL has been busy the last few days…. /s
Think there is any interest with what is going on???…..
I’m a hillbilly and a socialist. We don’t know any other kind of causes.
First, I do not blame Obama for the results of the talks.
You better watch yourself around here with that kind of talk, Thers.
5 comments? When are you going to get some decent trolls, Thers?
He scares them with his rapier wit, razor tongue, and handy can of Troll-Be-Gone.
Next year I intend to buy my mother’s property in Highlands County Florida. When I’m ready to die, it should be worth a fortune as oceanfront property, which I’ll then sell and leave all my money to the revolution.
Head for the hills, man.
Bite me.
Wonderful! My middle name is Revolution.
I stand corrected. They’ve been so thick you gotta scrape them off your shoes before they start to draw flies.
I get them like mad at my place & at Eschaton…
Perhaps FDL has an excellent mod squad.
I live in western Montana. I already there.
Maybe we oughta buy stock in Troll-B-Gone.
Stock up on the jumbo cans of WhuppAss while you are at it.
I hope it gives ‘em an uncomfortable rash.
Their DKos circle jerks have apparently become unsatisfying. We appear to be getting some spillover.
Where it chafes.
The best thing that happened at Copenhagen was the German news media calling out Inhofe.
Cap and trade is dead I think for the moment did anyone think that WallStreet banks would not have gone nuts selling imaginary Brazil won’t cut down the rain forest futures without some real cash?
A bankers bailout is dead!
Lets kill healthcare next!
Probably hard to tell on a troll and don’t ask me to look for it.
That really made my day as an Okie expat.
I don’t even want to know, except to watch them squirm.
Well said, Thers, well said.
Gird your loins, or whatever it else you need girded, because if we don’t win this next year, game over man. Game over.
Hopefully the next gen will read these words and understand.
Here’s to them…
We didn’t do squat…!
Mele Kalikimaka, Thers…! Always a pleasure…! ;-)
Thersday on Wednesday!
Yay!
Hey, Pups.
FunnyWheelieDiva
Obama’s next campaign slogan
Learn to Cope with spare Change.
And
Lung biscuits are a good thing! (Copenhopen revisited)
The global recession bought us an extra 21 months, time which we need to use wisely.
As for Copenhagen, it turns out that China and its proxies like Sudan rigged it to a) fail and b) make the US take the blame.
Look if I were paranoid I would think that Denmark which is building electric car charging stations nation wide same as Israel (although without our money) just wants America to slip behind on wind tech. The Danes already got more more wind power than than they can store storing the extra wind power in cars is there next move.
They just want to make sure that like the Japanese cars they get a decade to build their tech without worrying that America might over take them.
Our political system has become totally dysfunctional owing to the influence of big money. Now the SCOTUS is fixing to make it worse by ruling that corporations have the same free speech rights as you and I and that money=speech. Further proof of my contention that capitalism is incompatible with democracy.
Hows the low skilled job situation I’m thinking of moving soon.
All part of Barry’s eleventy dimensional chess strategy, I am certain.
answered you downstairs ratty
The trolls do not do science.
I replied with a hug for Bazzie.
(((sadly)))
Let me just say that I have never, ever felt pressured by anyone at FDL, from Jane on down, to do anything other with the space I have here to do anything but speak my mind. A lot of the stuff I’ve been seeing about this place in the past few days is just… wrong.
http://www.oism.org/pproject/GWReview_OISM150.pd
You might find this interesting reading for drawing conclusions about global warming. I would say that we might be as well served by dealing with toxic chemical pollution, but I have no axe to grind but this. Cap and Trade is a bogus move that will end up benefiting once again those with the power to dictate what smaller countries can do. These are my thoughts not yours obviously, and it shouldn’t be any other way. I would suggest reading this though.
Merry Christmas
Burnie
I think the healthcare bill is a stealth bailout of the insurance industry because they are broke. The insurance folk have to invest in safe securities like banks so if they go under the banks do too.
I expect both to fail again in a year and a half since Obama won’t stop them from gamboling.
Don’t ask. We have had two mills close in the past year or so. The most recent one a week ago, laying off 400 workers. Missoula, where I am, is not too bad, but the state as a whole has a miserable long term economic outlook. The only reason the recession has not had as big an impact on us as most of the country is that we were already pretty close to the bottom.
The kossack trolls do appear to believe Obama is imbued with supernatural powers.
What do you think is wrong besides from the Rahm trolls trying to push the Joe Healthcare bill?
Here’s to grouchy b—–ds!
The insurance industry is far from broke and makes massive profits. Their problem is that they are running out of ways to milk the ever greater profits out of their customers that the parasitical investor class demands these days.
Gotcha the unemployment stats say your ok but everything is relative:)
just gave it to him,and one to Beanie, too.give Bob,some scritches fromus
Happy Trails to you,slumber awaits………..
Heh… The left is livid and the right is in cataclysmic shock…! It’s a thing of beauty…! ;-)
Hell they think he’s the second coming.
Hey, Funnydiva!!! How’s tricks?
I think theres a great deal of truth to what you just said. Don’t know if it’s the whole reason, but I too think it’s a secret bailout disguised as helath insurance ‘reform.’
I think we have the 5th lowest household income and the highest number of people working 2+ jobs in the country. We also have a very large “discouraged” workforce who gave up looking years ago. It is hard to go veyr far down from there.
Company Goodwill and Intangibles
as % ofShareholders Equity
UnitedHealth Group 106%
Wellpoint 99%
Cigna 78%
Aetna 64%
This table tells us that if the companies were liquidated at prices equal to the book value of the assets, UnitedHealth and Wellpoint would have little or nothing for shareholders, and Cigna and Aetna would have little. This is actually a serious risk. Here’s why.
http://firedoglake.com/2009/10/05/bailing-out-failed-management-health-insurance-company-edition/
I’m thinking even these numbers are funny they seem to be self reported:)
he is so pathetic imo,and now im really gonna put keppie to rest nite Gracie
g’nite to you and yours, sadly
sweet dreams
Nighters.
The last few days have been exciting and powerful. If I can get the mouse out of my cold, dead hand I am going to bed.
I wish all the pups a very Happy Holidays and a prosperous New Year. You fill my days with fun and joy and I appreciate every one of you.
If I could get numbers I believe in from Moody’s, etc I would do a post :( But I can’t.
Well, better that than admit voting for him was a mistake, right?
Someone told me long ago that Insurance companies lend more money than actual banks. Is there any truth to this, and would it be because of huge cash reserves?
Happy holidays to you, Twain!
As a person who used to do big-institution research science (in a previous life), I wouldn’t be so quick to assume we know what the hell is going on, and most importantly, what to do about it.
But since this is a political site, you might want to consider looking at climate change as the Left’s version of 9-11 and terrorism and WMD’s. They’re exactly the same collective behaviors, down to the “we all know he has WMDs ^H^H^H^H CO2! And we’ll kill ^H^H^H^H ridicule anyone who doesn’t agree with us!”
It’s also interesting to note the difference between 2009 Copenhagen and 2002 Iraq, in that the first pass didn’t go quite as smoothly for the powers that be this time.
In general, paying attention to the environment is a wonderful thing. And because it’s a wonderful, global thing, caring for it will only work when it’s a global, personal process. Signing away one’s freedoms in the hope of protecting oneself from environmental catastrophe, while simultaneously doing little to nothing to change one’s personal behavior, is as likely to lead to a better environmental world as the last 10 years have been with respect to a sense of personal physical security. The chances are somewhere between slim and fat.
One might want to question whether signing PATRIOT-style agreements while being driven like cattle with fear is actually the best way to care for our world – and more importantly, what would be the motives of those who would drive such a stampede. Be as questioning of this issue you care about as you would have wanted the Right to have been about “terrorism” and “national security.”
Climate change is just 9-11 from the left.
Nite Sadly
2 jobs + over time and I start to drink heavy to make up for no social life been there would rather not go back.
Thers, what of talk that Dope In Haagen was all about the political maneuvering to install protocols so that IMF and World Bank (and countries military) could take to task countries that failed to measure up to any standards that ARE enacted? Obviously not to invade China, but lesser countries with resources, etc . . .
Any knowledge or thoughts on that set of issues? I have NOT read up on this yet, you are the beginning of a new bookmarks folder . . . provided your troll quotient increases, or I’ll have to discount any plausible credibility.
Thanks for the read! And all you here, and in the blogosphere . . . Whiskeyfire is a delight to stop in at, always, just to rummage and peruse . . . . *G*
Night, Twain.
For them most certainly. I just don’t understand how they can’t believe their lying eyes.
Same twain always nice to read your stuff:)
There was another choice?
Looks like UnitedHealth is a really bad investment, and so is Wellpoint. (I can’t believe that the more sensible types on WS would ignore those numbers. They’re like screaming flashing alarms.)
They invest the premiums, frequently in real estate. (Some of the biggest real estate owners are insurance companies.)
Hug Bob for me.
Do you mean that you wonder what’s different…or do you wonder if we are agreeing with Jane? I’m still considering the last couple of petitions, but have normally willing to sign her petitions right off the bat.
Jane!
Good Nite, sadly. Have a merry merry.
Credit Default Swaps guess who backed them if they went under? Oh wait we did with the bank bailout!
But another round of CDS failing can we afford it probably not.
All right — you guys want to get dirty? You want to see what we’re dealing with when it comes to climate change, and the forces in place to get us to avoid doing something about it? We have here a great example.
From 39:
I would suggest you fuck off.
Read that link.
Look — post on climate change, in any venue, even my silly own blog, and you get a phony-reasonable post like this coming up literally within an hour.
There is a coordinated, obnoxious attempt to deny the science of climate change. My FDL friends, we all need to get our damn selves educated. Now.
At the time it seemed Obama was clearly the lesser of evils. Now, not so clear. I am no longer convinced McCain could have been much worse. Still worth it to keep Palin out of the line of succession.
I am not sure what their current business model is, but the original model was premiums covered outlays to customers and all the profits came from investing, especially in real estate. They got very badly burned in the
Savings and Loan meltdown in the 80s and changed their model to extract more profits out of the customer base. I know they still do some investing, but I am not sure how much compared to the past. Their current problem may reflect more bad investments.
You really want me to get bit, don’t you? “g”
I’ll give him a peanut and tell him it’s from you.
(((Twain)))
The worst part is no friends. No church or book club or symphony etc. No real connections. I have adult family asking me how I got so many friends and how do you do it!! It is alarming.
Did not know that. Thanks. I would have thought maybe hedge funds, given the environment. But it makes sense.
Nope its more crop subsidies to farmers as crops die. Its people paying more for bottled water, its refugees from island nations coming to America wanting jobs or they drown.
I wish the same to you, Twain.
It’s Florida moving to the Georgia mountains. Now that’s going to be a cultural shock!.
Maybe if the Lake wants to grow more we should have more picnics?
A big old beak full…! ;-)
What’s a mere peanut gonna do…?
There you go!
Ok Midwesterners like me need more context :)
Nite Pups, it was a very interesting day.
As I say, capitalism is destroying our democracy. That is a very well funded effort to discredit global warming by corporate interests.
Bob’s got a can-opener on the front of his head. Opened me up more than once. Been awhile, I think he’s mellowing a bit.
L — thanks!
I’m as paranoid as anyone, but the simple fact is that emissions have to come down, and soon. What the admin was proposing specifically was not unreasonable, but was shot down — probably wasn’t sufficient either, but that’s neither here nor there, now.
Going forward, the admin needs to be pressured into making climate change a priority, as they’ve pledged. They should be held to the promise of real action by April.
g’nite tbsa, best to you and yours
Night.
Hey, Loo Hoo (belated greetings!)
Trix are for kids!
But tomorrow is Chinese Food and Videos day, and Xmas is Sherlock Holmes and getting adopted by a friend’s friend’s family for Xmas dinner. Good times!
FWDiva
How are the pups taking Jane’s move on Fox News and backing Grover? I’ve been gone most of the day and I support it but the pups must have been bewildered?
Maybe it was the RV you gave him…! ;-)
Hi Cindy Loo Hoo, sorry I didn’t see you come in.
Bribery = love… Lobbyists must LOVE them some politicians.
With some notable exceptions; North Georgia is Tea Bag snake handling home country. Suspicious of anyone from the next county. They are already in a snit over the Mexicans who work in the chicken processing plants. Add bright cosmopolitans of Cuban descent, Retired Yankees from Detroit and Canada, and heavens to Betsy! some Jews. You got some shock and awe coming.
Good nite, Merry Christmas.
The oil/energy guys hate it the banks want Cap and Trade a GOP civil war might be brewing. The banks see more commissions on more imaginary stuff.
Like Brazil can stop poor farmers from cutting down the rainforest.
Yah, but I mean specifically in blog comments sections.
When I posted on this stuff at WF I got comments very similar in tone to this one, with a link to a supposedly “reasonable” denialist site.
At WF it was from a non-regular poster from what looked like a spoofed IP.
Just like the Public Option…? ;-)
But why Mexicans eat snakes:) Why is scary.
I didn’t understand it with Bushies. Now it’s with people who should damn well know better, but they seem to have the same problem.
Gotta get out in front on this, is what I’m saying.
‘Corporatitis”…? ;-)
I remember that one. My point still holds. This is all part of the effort by the corps to sow doubt. I am not saying that the posters themselves are working for big oil or big coal, but they are getting their talking points and “science” from the people who are. The corporate front men are out there encouraging people to spread this bullshit in the hopes that it will fertilize their profits.
I agree 100%… Apparently, I’m suffering some TBI from beating my head on the desk a little too often these days…! 8-(
Good Evening, Folks.
Been Lurking and catching. Sheesh. We got some visitors, didn’t we. Nice to see the regular suspects hanging and getting along so well.
Oho. Disinfo campaign? Directing people to sites that are full of..well, disinformation?
OK.
Do you have a site that we can direct someone to, when we see this? Like a Climate Change Primer?
They’re like Dorothy’s companions (no heart, no brains, no courage) but less endearing.
Heading out, happy holidaze to all!
Always nice to see you Demi the Rahm trolls are worse than the rove trolls:)
But, but you KNOW Obama didn’t campaign on enacting good Global Warming legislation, right? Right? (/snark)
FWDiva
Hi and bye, demi. Maybe catch up with you at LLN if you’re around.
Night, rf!
I concur this is a life and death issue, and close at hand despite what’s being waged to discount that.
I’m equally concerned with political implications that this is yet ANOTHER vehicle being commandeered by corporate interests to wage ‘war’ of sorts upon others . . . ergo, what China did or didn’t do is beyond MY sphere of concern.
I don’t trust Obama and USA to really advocate or lead in emissions reductions or lessening of greenhouse gases.
We’d be knee deep in jobs and development and implementation of green energy projects by now.
Ah, hell. I’m fully distrusting of ALL the fuckers with the power, money and control of our lives.
I’ll go back to sippin my merlot and read some more . . . rock on dude.
Xmas Day, I’m gonna pour some Makers Mark and hold it high to you and Pups everwhere . . *G*
If you’re not snarking, could you just go read the relevant comment threads? Surely there’s no need to rehash it all here?!
FWDiva
Aloha, RF…!
((Rat))nite
Interesting times, tho, too. Three days after the Winter Solstice. Got the votey thingy in the morning. Baby, It’s Cold Outside.
Mmmmmmm! She said XMAS Dinner . . . MMMMMM! Whass for dinner?
Forget the climate change nuts as a kid every year I played hockey the lake was frozen and the kids from the other side of the lake would play us after I went to college big hole in the center of the lake in January and the Canada geese would never go north they stayed to eat corn from our fields the machines did not pick up.
Before they used to leave in december.
Not yet, but it will be soon. National Weather Service is predicting a high of 19 for Christmas here.
Right, but that doesn’t mean it’s not silly how they’d even bother with comments sections.
No, it would seem Katie and Lucy are doing fine, haven’t heard anything about them really, not in here anyways.
*G*
They are relentless and leave no stone unturned, but yeah, they really are pretty stupid.
I’m not snarking the morning was weird and I just got back here my net connection was weird. The Lake seemed in turmoil. If your worried I might ask again at late late night.
Don’t know how you do it. I guess we’re all just acclimated differently. *g*
I don’t know. I’m being adopted as an orphan. But 2 years ago, I remember it was delicious and fun. And that somebody made icebox cake because it was their dad’s favorite. You know, Famous Wafers and whipped cream…mmm.
I got movie ticket vouchers as a host/ess prezzie.
Xmas Eve dinner is Chinese at our fave place–they make their own chow-mein noodles. And everything else is heck-a tasty, too. Mmmm.
FWDiva
Fair enough.
I am, as they say, well insulated. My problem has always been with heat. I always hated Oklahoma summers and am so delighted to be in a place where the normal summer temps are in the 70s & 80s. It also is not nearly as cold as it is in Chicago where I spent 12 years before moving here.
Wild Ginger?
You just made me remember the Summer I met you here. You were having unseasonably hot weather and your were talking about taking a lot of cold showers. *g*, again.
Wind chill?
Yeah. Most places here do not have AC because you rarely need it. We have had several years of unusually hot summers, however. No global warming, though, that could never happen.
Nope. Usually we have almost no wind here, being kind of in a bowl in the mountains.
‘Nite, RF. Happy holidays.
Nevah!!!
I must retire. Didn’t get off work until 8:00 PM tonight and must be there at 8:00 AM tomorrow.
And, yes, I still have last minute preparations for you know what.
Chicago 100+ a hot year – 20 wind chill or more a cold year but unlike Seattle lightning and tornadoes:)
However, they all have heaters…! ;-)
Real minus 20 weather? peeing outside must be dangerous or brief:)
Here is a nice picture of Missoula.
Night. Sweetest dreams fro a sweet lady.
Way sleepy. Niters!
You betcha! And $200 a month heating bills.
Oh, Richard.
Believe me, the first 50 or 100 comments on each of Jane’s 2 “Norquist/Rahm” threads should tell ya all you need to know. Especially if you skip over the obvious trollz and first-timers.
Many regular Fire-pups are supporting Jane’s efforts. Some are having trouble with the idea of making any common-cause with someone like Norquist. The trolls are here to bash many of us as Jane-worshippers and to bash Jane as a cynical spotlight-seeker who doesn’t care abut anyone but herself. Oh, and one has a bug up their butt that Firepups don’t get worked up about torture, and therefore shouldn’t be so worked up about anything else.
I think that’s a reasonable synopsis. Did I miss anything important, fellow Troll-whackers?
FWDiva
Aloha, Thers… Mele Kalikimaka…! *g*
No, we rarely get that cold here. That was a high of 19 above zero on Christmas. Chicago, on the other hand, routinely gets down that low, with 40 mile an hour winds off the lake to boot.
Minus 20 windchill you can find the holes in your caulk by looking at the frost:) Before your entire window frosts up from the inside never mind how hot you got the place…. heat is relative to the distance away from the cold. Never mind what the thermostat says:)
Nighters!
Good guess! But nah, just a neighborhood joint called Fu Shen. It’ll be much quieter and affordable than the Ginger. Not to mention, downtown will be a ZOO tomorrow night!
FWDiva
I really am taking off, but had to stay one more minute to say that I agree with your synopsis.
Hi and bye, Funny.
Good nite Thers. Good nite, everyone. If I don’t catch you all on another thread before the 25th, have a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, whatever you’re celebrataing.
Nope, a good synopsis, Funny…! I did rather enjoy the latter two you mentioned…! ;-)
Always put up plastic on the inside of the windows in winter in Chicago for just that reason.
nighters, hon.
Happiest of Xmasses!
FWDiva
Nite Demi
Nite, and same to you!
Just checking as long as Jane knows the regulars got her back or have legit complaints about Grover were fine.
Its the regulars opinion that worries me Raven, Norske Southern Dragon, eCHAN, Demi, Selise, Solai etc.
The fights between Hilary and Obama were hard enough.
Hey to you foods! I’ve been scrambling these days!!!
Well, at least someone was entertained. I just thought they were both incredibly tiresome. “call your (as in, my) bluff” indeed. NO, dickwad, I’m NOT going to root around in Emptywheel’s archive to prove YOUR unsubstantiated assertion wrong. Thus my comment about “do(ing) (his) own fucking homework…” And anyone who merrily tots up “points” for not getting the answer they unreasonably demand 60-odd times–and admits that both the asking and scoring are enjoyable in and of themselves meets my definition of troll.
FWDiva
Time for me to toddle off as well. Take care all.
No, that just qulafies as an asshole.
I know what you mean. Fun or Pisser-offer.
My feeling is that, comfortable or not, fully in agreement or not, most of the regular Pups are willing to at least give Jane credit for good faith and brains. But ymmv. Jane is certainly not backing down or taking any criticism personally!
FWDiva
I posted much of this on one of the seminal journals earlier today but I figured that it’s probably appropriate to repost it here. I’ve had to closely monitor and analyze the Copenhagen developments for work, and I have to say that I was very very disappointed in ObamaCo’s negotiating strategy. Basically, the US provided a truly lousy offer. The world was optimistic that the US would show up in Copenhagen to show leadership, challenging other countries to match an IMPROVED US offer. But the president didn’t bother to offer one – choosing instead to cover up his lack of new solutions with a bizarre attack on the developing countries, whilst offering nothing in return (and, yes, a $30 billion a year contribution to a climate remediation fund is nothing).
Here are some observations:
1. US Non-Offer
The US really did offer nothing at Copenhagen beyond the 3% absolute decrease over 1990 levels of emissions it offered in November. This goal was given without any targeting based on either GDP or population and thus no real baseline for mitigation strategies. Even worse, the US insisted, unlike just about any other country, that this 3% reduction could be met in large measure solely by derivatives trading and not by real reductions. Given that the selling countries of carbon credits may very well never have the desire or the ability to emit the sold quantities of potential emissions in the first place, this may amount to massive net INCREASES of emissions by the US, instead of any real decreases at all. This position was widely known and understood outside of the US, and represented an utterly unacceptable negotiating position to the rest of the world.
The hope – universally held abroad – was that Obama would improve upon this ridiculous non-offer and replace it with a substantive one, but this was not to happen. The US came to the talks with nothing more. The fact that no real US offer was forthcoming set a very negative tone for the negotiations, inciting outrage from just about everybody else. Sure, China and the other BASIC states may have exploited this outrage, but we precipitated it.
2. Fun With Derivatives
US carbon emissions are an order of magnitude off script. The US emits 19 tons per person per year and it has proposed to, well, keep that at 19 tons per person per year, with derivatives, which really meant that the US may intend to increase emissions to around 23 tons per person per year by 2020, net net, since credits sold to US polluters by developing countries would likely never have been used anyway. This negotiating position was completely unacceptable to the rest of the world.
The reality is that the Chinese, whether one agrees or disagrees with their negotiating tactics, put forward a proposal of their own based on stabilization of emissions at around 6 tons per person per year (the same as Europe’s 2020 goal). GDP intensity would, under this proposal, be comparable in 2020 to Europe’s levels today. I argued elsewhere that they should have agreed to equal Europe’s target in 2020, but that’s not as big of a difference as one might think: 50-55% reduction in GDP intensity versus their proposed 40-45%. China is well on target to achieve these goals and will likely hit the 50-55% as well, on their own.
3. The US Verification Monkeywrench Caper & Kyoto
The US intentionally threw a monkey wrench into the negotiating process over verification, knowing that third party verification (beyond the use of national inventory reports required by Kyoto) was a basic issue not only for China but for all the BASIC countries and much of the rest of the G-77 besides.
It is vitally important to understand why this sensitivity exists. The reason for G-77/BASIC sensitivity over this issue has to do with the architecture of Kyoto, which they feel the west (the Europeans in particular) reneged upon, in bad faith. This architecture allowed the developed countries to continue to pollute at a vastly disproportionate level whilst exempting the developing countries from specific monitoring requirements that would limit them from future development – future development that they may or may not ever be able to achieve. The avoidance of the verification responsibilities by the G-77 was central to this hideous compromise between them and the Europe, and, for the G-77 the elements of this compromise were all they had – politically – to hang onto at Copenhagen.
Moreover, from their perspective, the US should not be allowed to benefit from having refused to participate in Kyoto in the first place, and that acceding to US demands in this issue was tantamount to accepting a supraterritorial right on the part of the US to dictate the outcomes of international multilateral diplomacy. As such, the US position directly threatened their sovereignty.
By raising the issue of verification in the way that they did, the US was intentionally reigniting this controversy with the specific goal of undermining the talks, effectively PROVOKING the G-77, which had already come to suspect that every advantage they had negotiated in the original Kyoto compromise, would be taken away in Copenhagen, into rejecting the western offers.
4. China’s Intransigence
China's had more than a few awkward negotiating positions. Raising the necessity of population control and family planning in controlling carbon emissions just got everybody upset at them. More importantly, their premise that they should still be treated in the way they were at Kyoto is, frankly, ridiculous. They are no longer a poor country (GDP per capita at PPP of roughly $7,000, and $15,000 by 2020 in NOT a poor country by any stretch of the imagination, and their human development index scores squarely put them in the upper range of middle income countries globally), and they should not pretend that they are. But, from a Chinese perspective, this intransigence is not sabotage. From their viewpoint, they are simply protecting what they negotiated at Kyoto – not only for themselves but for the entire G-77 – from being taken away by the bad faith negotiating tactics of the US.
These two articles from India capture the G-77’s outrage with the US quite well. From their perspective, the talks were sabotaged all right.. by the USA.
We Can Challenge India on Copenhagen Goals: US
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/global-warming/We-can-challenge-India-on-Copenhagen-goals-US/articleshow/5363872.cms
Climate Deal Extremely Weak: US to Blame
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Climate-deal-extremely-weak-US-to-blame-CPM/articleshow/5359512.cms
This viewpoint is echoed across all of the BASIC countries – that the talks were the victim of US, not Chinese sabotage. Unless the US deals with what are a very well grounded set of accusations, then it is difficult to see how talks can resume in good faith.
Unless we understand the nature of the G-77 and BASIC objections to the US stance, we will not be able to make any progress toward an acceptable outcome for the planet. This process must begin with the following elements:
1. A substantive US commitment to decrease, over time, real, non-tradeable carbon emissions to roughly the same level being targeted to Europe and China.
2. The US must also offer a separate accommodation to honor the verification-for-pollution compromise at Kyoto for the G-77 and the other BASIC countries (exempting China).
3. China itself, alone, should therefore be brought into the Kyoto mechanism, but not the other BASIC and G-77 countries. Moreoever, verification measures (including for China) should be the inventory monitoring reports envisioned by Kyoto for Europe and not some new mechanism that the US will dictate. It is my believe that China would find such a proposal on verification acceptable if tied to (1) and (2).
[Edited by mod to close bold tag at point 4]
Aloha, DD…!
Funny, I did mention to him that ‘one should do their research’…! Apparently, to no avail…! ;-)
When your in a bad mood trolls are just the Gruff a billy Goat from Chi Town needs!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curse_of_the_Billy_Goat
We FDLers are all Billy goats now:)
you say tomato, I say troll…
*grin*
FWDiva
Good to know still the Fox guys treated her with more respect than any Liberal I’ve seen just how many arms did she break? Rahm wishes he had half that Clout at Fox.
Which is a bad thing…? That is what I expect of her…! She made FDL, FDL…! ;-)
nite folks:)
Uh she got treated with the respect my grandma gets on Fox no Lefty has ever gotten that much Cred I am in awe and wondering how many arms she broke to get that respect?
Later!
No, silly, it’s a GREAT thing. And yes, she did make FDL what it is. Not least by recruiting a LOT of great talent.
Looks like we have no disagreement here…should we manufacture something?
FWDiva
I suspect at least part if it is that, at the moment, Jane’s being tougher on the Obama administration and Movement Democrats than she is on any rethugs. “enemy of my enemy” and all that…
FWDiva
Wow, that is really a no class reply to a suggestion to read something.
Again, Merry Christmas without any religious connotation enjoy your time with those you love.
Close mindedness is never a good thing, and cap and trade is not a solution to anything.
Burnie
How’s about you take the branch outta your own eye, sister?
FWDiva
Why would that be…? Personally, I hold ‘em to higher standards than the Repugs… And, I worked my ass off to see’em get where they’re at…! Buyers’ remorse…? You betcha…!
Troll Alert ! I might as well put up the sign. The first reaction to this is 1) I’m being self-serving 2) It’s an insane ‘conspiracy theory’
Anyone falling for either of those ruses can go congratulate yourself on keeping an open mind elsewhere.
I’ve followed geopolitics for a while now : and consider the position towards the ‘Axis of Evil’ so entrenched nobody remembers it was just more bullshit. And what has this got to do with Global Warming ? Funny you should ask.
http://opitslinkfest.blogspot.com/2009/12/4-dec-following-trail-climate-fraud-and.html is one of two recent posts stimulated by research sparked by
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2007/sci_techs/3423init_warming_hoax.html
Since I have blogged more as it came in at Opit’s LinkFest! you know where to find the course of exploration. Definite hot finds resulting from it are CFACT and a new section at Global Research.ca
Your list and posit are wrong in a number of ways, but I’ll not stoke the fires of derision more than that.
I WILL add it’s tacky to call out regulars the way you did if it’s not for positive reasons.
And that’s my opinion.
Yer fun! And Funny, Diva! *G*
Que?
I’m not calling out regulars I’m saying their opinions matter if we lose enough regulars on this issue the Lake loses and the Primary wars between Hilary and Obama supporters did tear up the Lake I think this could hurt us even more, but I think we have no choice.
Sheesh calling out regulars they are my friends I wish I wrote more names.