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For a four-term (!) incumbent, Harry Reid’s re-elect numbers seem really rocky. Granted, these are internal GOP polls, but it sure looks like Harry might have a rough 2010 re-election, should the Republicans find an opponent next year.
Like Tom Daschle, Harry Reid may be vulnerable at home because of his high national profile, although he’s got a strong in-state machine. Nevertheless, shedding another opponent (Lt Gov Brian Krolicki got indicted months ago, making him an unlikely challenger) this week has to make Harry happy.
Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) has decided to take a pass on challenging Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) in 2010, a move that comes as little surprise to national party insiders. The two-term Congressman informed National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) of his decision on Tuesday.
Several polls conducted in the Silver State since the start of the cycle have shown that Reid could be vulnerable in his bid for a fifth term, and Republicans continue to remain optimistic that they will be able to recruit a top candidate who will give Reid a competitive race next year.
Heller is a two-term Congressman who joins former Congressman Jon Porter on the won’t-challenge-the-Reid-machine list:
Former Rep. Jon Porter (R), who was defeated by now-Rep. Dina Titus (D) in 2008, seemed like the next best option for the GOP fallback after Krolicki, but he took a job with a law firm in Washington, D.C., and said he would not run.
Republicans admit Heller would have been an excellent candidate. He is a former Nevada secretary of state and has demonstrated the ability to raise large amounts of money for his Congressional bids.
Chris Cillizza quotes an internal GOP poll showing even the relatively unknown Republican state chair beating the United States Senate Majority Leader by six points:
Even as Heller removed himself from consideration, a new name — Nevada Republican Party Chair Sue Lowden — emerged as a possible Reid challenger. A group of Nevada Republicans led by Robert Uithoven, who managed Gov. Jim Gibbons’ (R) 2006 campaign, released a survey showing Lowden ahead of Reid 48 percent to 42 percent.
Republicans insist that Reid’s numbers are so bad that any credible challenger — including Lowden — will be in a strong position to beat him.
This race is starting to remind me of North Carolina in 2008 — where a nationally known incumbent scared off higher-profile challengers with her name recognition, thus allowing a hard-working but little-known candidate to win over voters who felt ignored. Maybe it’s not the Tom Daschle/John Thune example Harry Reid should fear but the Liddy Dole/Kay Hagan model.
Democrats in North Carolina and in the U.S. Senate had a tough time finding a candidate who would face Dole because state officeholders, including Hagan, didn’t like their chances.
Also, what effect will Reid’s constant whining about his inability to accomplish Democratic objectives have on netroots’ motivation to help him get re-elected? Sure, he’s got lots of money in the bank (more than ten million dollars) but a well-funded undamaged fresh-faced GOP newcomer backed by out-of-state interests could put a dent in that really fast.
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I would almost be willing to give up a Democrat in Nevada to get Reid out of his leadership position. . .. almost. .
Considering that we should pick up seats elsewhere, and that the only other incumbent in trouble is Dodd, I’d seriously consider it. It sure would set off an interesting scramble for a new Majority Leader.
If Reid were even marginally Democratic, election of a Republican would at least yield a contrast. Not that contrast would be a good thing, but a Republican could hardly be better at pleasing Mitch McConnell than Reid.
totally.
that prop could actually KEEP ME UP AT NIGHT!
he needs OUT of any kind of leadership position!
Totally !
If he gets a serious Repug challenger, Reid could be made to step down as ML, in exchange for Dem support …
Petro!
Raven !
How is it ?
Dunno, Keith says they arrested some other moron who tried to take a shiv in Obama’s Town Hall and then they found a loaded piece in his ride. Whoopeeee!
They wuz jess exercisin’ their 2nd Amendment rights …
227 senior cits in Alaska waiting for care
Quoting Tony Soprano, “There’s nothing more useless than an unloaded piece.”
So there’s that.
Nothing more dangerous either … if you’re the wrong color.
Unless it’s a .45, then you are better off throwing it.
Laughing, and ashamed of it.
Yeah, so I have heard.
Tweety’s interview with Mr. Strap-on from NH today reinforces the surety that we know where these stooges come from. They are all native-Alaskans. Even the ones from Texas.
Part of the problem is the “handshake agreement” that Senator Reid and Senator Ensign have, where they will not endorse a challenger against the other.
Another part is that, at least as far as Nevada is concerned, you can lose 15 of the 17 counties and still win the election if you carry Washoe County (Reno/Sparks) and Clark County (Las Vegas) by wide enough margins to cancel out your losses. Reid did this in 1998 against Ensign, and Dina Titus almost pulled it off against Jim Gibbons in 2006 for the governor’s office.
Now, now.
Mark Noonan at Blogs for Victory intends to run. He may try as an independent, because I have the impression he has received the cold shoulder from the state GOP. Who knows, he may run for the GOP nomination as a dark horse. I think it would depend on if Nevada has a “sore loser” law.
If he does become a serious candidate, his site, and it’s predecessor Blogs for Bush, is a treasure trove of oppo research.
Fact check dot org!
Here’s hoping this challenge will put a silicone spine in Reid.
We do have a “sore loser” law – it’s never been used in a major race, but it is on the books.
Good luck with that !
When are you heading off to NN ?
Yeah? What keyword(s) didja use? I got no hits.
It was you!
I am thinking of going to Rep. Pete Starks (CA-13) townhall on August 15 at 9am (Fremont Senior Center) -
Planning to arrive by 7am (really early) and have mobility issues, so need to bring my rolling walker.
Anyone wanna go with me? I’m afraid I’ll hit someone if I go myself.
email me at my handle at mindspring dot com
I’m not going this year. I gave my pass to Leen. I had vacancies in the rentals (and spent a lot on updating) which put me on the defensive!
Eli is upstairs!
Eliminationists ‘R’ Us…
Couldna been. I’ve been a fan of the .45 since forever. Now, if yer talking about those military issue, made in 1954 and fired a thousand times and rattled in the holster when ya walked, yeah, I agree. It’d be hard to hit a barn at 20 paces with one of those things. Match quality though, not a match pistol, but match quality I’ll take over any piece o’ shit 9mm any day.
Somehow I think we’ve had this conversation before. And I certainly yield to ya, never fired one “in anger”.
GR8, you’ll hang with us at the Lake !
I guess great minds run in the same channel. The very first thing that I thought when I read this column was Go For it, GOOPers!! Then I look at the comments and almost everyone else said variations on the same thing.
Reid won’t need the netroots as his ATM, and Obama will probably organize his instate network for the Majority Leader. But it would be interesting to see what kind of outside money gets raised to oppose him, and what GOP steps up. I think there’s funding and support to be had on that side, just for the bragging rights.
Taking down Democratic Majority Leaders is big business on the GOP consulting side.
Not that we’d care, but it would matter to the GOP. I’m afraid it might come under the heading “careful what you wish for” for them, though. Harry is a tremendous asset to the GOP where he is. I don’t think they could improve on his performance.
Right. All the more reason to dump Reid!
He’ll never be anything but an enemy to progressives. Pushing his numbers down even lower, one could make an example out of him. At this point, booting Reid would be a net plus.
That’s why the Pugs won’t challenge him seriously. He’s a staunch Republican activist.
Not really for Nevadans, who are barely represented as it is (Rep. Heller’s a non-entity neocon, Rep. Berkley is AIPAC through and through, Rep. Titus is auditioning for Blue Dog staus, and of course there’s Sen. Ensign).
Sue Lowden would have the baggage of a state GOP that is one step short of total schism under her watch (the 2008 Nevada GOP convention was a shout-fest between the Paul supporters and everyone else).
Danny Tarkanian is way over his head. He ran for an open Secretary of State seat in 2006, and lost it to Ross Miller pretty badly. Running against an incumbent with a big war chest? “Yikes” comes to mind.
Of course there’s always Sharon Angle, who represents the Club For Growth wing. But her campaign last time around was almost entirely financed by out-of-state interests. And if you don’t kiss gaming’s ring in this state, they will bury you.
Internal GOP polls? How about some Rove math.WTF?
look at how the (R)’s did not make a serious run against Lieberman – some here were sensing they would not mount a serious challenger to Reid because he is useful to them as is – what does that say about the collusive nature of the 2 party duopoly?
Well, I was more thinking about the national progressive agenda, leaving aside the parochial interests of Nevada.
So while I can understand why you might think Reid is better for Nevada, I hope you can also see just how bad Reid is for the country. And ultimately, if he’s bad for the country, he’s bad for Nevada by extension, since Nevada does not exist in a vacuum.
Indeed, I’m in Kahlifohnia and I’m at the point where I’d be happy to see DiFi go for sure–replacing her with a Republican would be only slightly worse than her.
If having 60 Ds in the Senate doesn’t matter, then we need to get rid of the worst offenders in the Senate.
The problem is that parochial interests will trump national interests every day of the week and twice on Sundays.
We don’t have anyone on the bench that will primary Reid because he will have the DNC behind him, and every potential Republican candidate is manifestly worse either in policy or ethics than he is.
And Nevada is not a state that takes kindly to “carpetbaggers”. It sank Titus’ gubernatorial hopes (despite being a Nevada resident longer than I’ve been alive) and it sank Jack Carter in 2006 against Ensign.
I mean, on a good day the best I can work up is indifference towards the guy, and I was hoping that this time he wasn’t going to run.
I may just leave it blank if it’s Reid vs. the GOP flavor-of-the-month.
Since it’s pushing bedtime and EPU-ville, I’m going to hope for pleasant dreams that we can primary Reid. :)
The GOP could get so obsessed with bringing down Reid that they’ll forget every other race. They may, in fact, bring down Reid, and in the long run, that actually hurts them, as Reid is a pathetic majority leader, worse than Daschle.
I’d like to see Reid lose and the Democrats to have the fucking sense to elect a Majority leader from a safe Democratic state. What do they expect when their leadership has to constantly kiss conservative ass just to try to hang on to his seat? Dumb fucks.