Not Larry Sabato:

This is a critical vote coming up tomorrow. Jim Moran have both signed a pledge that they would not vote for any war supplemental that did not include troop withdraw. Despite that, they both voted for the first supplemental this year. FireDogLake is now reporting that Jim has said he will vote against this supplemental- no word on Bobby yet.

Paul Martin from PeaceAction is up on the Hill today. He emails this:

House leadership definitely does not have the votes yet. It sounds like the leadership is going to use floor time tonight on various votes to do face-to-face whipping. If they have the votes, the house will bring the supplemental up as early as tomorrow.

There was a significant new opinion released in the NDCA late Friday (h/t Lindy and Fatster) in the case of Jose Padilla v. John Yoo. The decision is simply devastating.

Jane reports that Ann Kirkpatrick may have been frightened into standing up to Emanuel and voting “no” tomorrow. Blue Dogs who don’t will suffer at the polls next year. And Emanuel knows he’s starting to lose them. So what’s his latest strategy? We hear he’s turning to vulnerable Republicans and telling them he can get the DCCC to “go easy” on them next year if they vote for the Supplemental tomorrow. It’s one thing if he makes a deal with Vern Buchanan in Florida or Chris Smith in New Jersey, but we’re hearing that he’s offering to protect Republicans who have been slated as major DCCC targets, like Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI), Bill Young (R-FL), Leonard Lance R-NJ) and Charlie Dent (R-PA). Watch tomorrow to see if any of these characters cross over and vote with Team Emanuel to bail out European bankers.

Odum says:

Welch and others pledged not to vote on such further appropriations without the inclusion of a timetable for withdrawal, and word on the Hill is that Welch may be among those signatories who may reverse themselves on the issue under pressure from the new, Democratic administration.

It’s past time for the progressive wing of the party to stand up and expect the same deference being shown by

I’m betting we’ve got 37 instead of 36. Jim Cooper? I’ll personally spend the next year and a half writing about how he voted for $108 billion in European bank bailouts and $4 billion in “Cash for Clunkers” when he won’t get a dime for local Nashville hospitals in African American communities in his district.

After the Grijalva vote switch trial balloon this morning (which was quickly shot down), it looks like several people may have been let off the reservation. Which indicates that the rumors we’re hearing about Rahm Emanuel cutting deals with Republicans to go easy on them in the 2010 elections in exchange for votes may be true.

Which, if true, means we held progressive votes. And we won.

In 2007, Ed Pastor signed the pledge in 2007 not to vote for any war funding that does not include troop withdrawal provisions. But now that he’s part of leadership, I guess that’s all out the window.

Washington DC office: (202) 225-4065, Arizona office: (602) 256-0551

Lloyd Doggett has said he’ll vote against the supplemental tomorrow.  Let him know you support that decision by calling his offices in DC at 202-225-4865 and in Texas at 512-916-5921

Thanks to Glenn Smith and Karl Thomas Musselman at Burnt Orange for all their help.

Keep the calls coming.

Steve Cohen, Chakah Fattah, Mike Honda, Doris Matsui, Ed Markey, Jim McDermot, Gwen Moore, Jard Polis, Jan Schakowsky, Mike Thompson, John Tierney, Mel Watt and Anthony Weiner need to be reminded of the 2007 pledge they made never to vote for war funding that did not call for troop withdrawal.

On our Whip Count tool, Patrick reports that he called Blue Dog Ann Kirkpatrick’s office:

I said she should vote against b/c GOP will say she voted to bail out Euro Banks. Staffer says we know, and she is leaning against vote.

Blue Dogs are scared about what might happen in conservative districts if they cast that vote for a $100 billion European bank bailout. They should be.