Watching the news following Friday’s Iranian election, its quite stunning to see the number of people out in the streets, risking beatings and arrest to demand that their voices be heard. As I write this, it’s still too soon to tell what the real vote was but the pictures, videos like the one at left, and tons of tweets coming out of Iran certainly show that a large number of Iranians are not convinced the outcome is legitimate.
We will of course now see many statements from American politicians suggesting this all means the time is right to meddle again in Iran’s internal affairs and we can only hope that the Obama administration will pay attention to the advice offered by the National Iranian American Council:
American policy makers will feel the need to react. But they need to remember this isn’t about us. This is about Iran and Iranians seeking the right to determine their own future. The United States can help little and harm much by interjecting itself into the process. The Obama administration’s approach to the election — keeping its comments low-key and not signaling support for any candidate — was exactly the right approach. While tempting, empty and self-serving rhetorical support for Iranians struggling for more freedoms serves only to aid their opponents. History has made Iran wary of foreign meddling, and American policymakers in particular must be sensitive to giving hardliners any pretense to call reform-minded Iranians foreign agents. That’s why Iran’s most prominent reformers, including Nobel-laureate Shirin Ebadi, have said the best thing the U.S. can do is step back and let Iran’s indigenous human rights movement progress on its own, without overt involvement from the U.S–however well intentioned.
Even so, we are likely now to hear a great deal about honoring democracy and the will of the people and the like over the next few days – yet our own government is far from respecting voters’ choices, not just in 2000 and 2004 but also right now.
Consider the resistance to the the Iraqi Parliament’s allocation of funds for the referendum on continuing the US occupation which is due – by law – to be held by July 30. While this referendum was a condition imposed by the Iraqi Parliament on pasage of the SOFA, it now seems that for Iraq, the will of the people is not as worthy of respect as that of the Iranians. According to the New York Times “American diplomats are quietly lobbying the government not to hold the referendum."
So much for supporting democracy.
And not only are we seeing a lack of respect for Iraqis’ rights to vote on their own future we’re also seeing a direct assault against the will of the people here at home.
As Jane has been reporting over the past week, Rahm, the White House and congressional leadership are pulling out all the stops to get progressive members of the House to break their pledges to vote no on any war supplemental that does not include a timeline and exit strategy. This pressure on progressive representatives to break this covenant is a violation of the heart of democracy.Unlike the people of Iran who face beatings in the streets or the people of Iraq who will need to overcome the power of the occupation to get their chance to vote freely on SOFA, all we need to do is pick up the phone and let the progressive members of Congress know that we will only support those who keep their word. Take a moment to watch those Iranian students out in the streets of Tehran – then pick up your phone and make those calls. This video featuring Jane has all the details.
Here’s a list with the members of Congress and phone numbers who need your calls.
Related posts:
- Obama Condemns Crackdown in Iran, Praises “Courageous” Dissenters
- House Voting on Iran Resolution; Human Rights Activist Not Against It, But…
- Let’s Get Ready to Rumble – Supplemental Take Down!
- Iran: Don’t Lead, Don’t Follow, and Instead Get Out of the Way
- Supplemental: Why Must Progressive Members of Congress Grovel For the Blue Dogs?





Spotlight








Support this site!
Subscribe to the newsletter
Advertise on Firedoglake
Send
us your tips
Make us your homepage
About Firedoglake
Advanced search

The pressure being brought to bear on progressive members of Congress is the first time we’ve really seen Obama sic his attack dog Rahm on anybody. It was for moments like this that Rahm was selected as COS and the choice of target is particularly revealing. To date the White House has made no attempt to bully Blue Dogs or Republicans, no matter how much they obstruct.
The U.S. has not favored democracy in other countries if it interferes with U.S. objectives, and the U.S. has never been shy about overthrowing other governments.
Siun, just so you know the consequences of your work. About a year ago, you posted to an exhibit of Iraqi artists’ work in the U.S. I contacted the gallery and bought one of the paintings. Brian Turner, an anti-war vet, writes poetry. His second book will be published in April, and the painting I bought will be the cover art. I’ve had the painting professionally photographed and will mail the disc to the publisher this week.
I’m envious of the passion of the Iranian people. While we in America sat and watched our TEEVEEs as the right wing stole our country, election after election ( I still wonder about 1994), these people got up off their duffs and are doing something about it.
I know alot of activists marched against the illegal Bush War,(and other things) but the “liberal media didn’t cover it…so, it’s like it never happened. Alot of activists got hurt too…but again.
I really respect those people and wish them well. It would be great for their country to over throw the theocracy and I shudder to think how very close we are to that in this country right now.
Is there a list of the 15 leanees Jane refers to?
eCahn – that’s wonderful news!
Our conversations here lead to so many neat connections for us all.
This is a city-by-city breakdown of Iran’s presidential elections 2009 results. If you take even a cursory look at them you will see that contrary to what is being bruited about in the western media that:
1. It is not the case that the published proportionate results for Ahmedinejad and Mousavi were throughout the land.
2. In fact there are places where Mousavi beat Ahmedi Nejad.
So that “proof” turns out not to be the case.
Next comment has a lot of links if the moderator will permit?
Really says something about O’s priorities, doesn’t it? IF one is paying attention.
Good evening Dubhaltach,
We’ll take care of the link heavy comment.
I should say that I have no idea personally whether the Iranian election was stolen or legit – I don’t think we in the US can know – and I worry a great deal about pressure or inclinations to intervene, etc – we have already caused so much harm to Iran.
At the same time, the uprising of Mousavi supporters is a powerful sign that there are voices who feel they were not heard – and unlike here, they are not backing down in their quest for representation. It’s a model we would do well to learn from.
http://campaignsilo.firedoglak…..s-we-need/
Found it. Jane on Friday:
Leaning no:
Steve Cohen
Keith Ellison
Chakah Fattah
Mike Honda
Doris Matsui
Ed Markey
Jim McDermott
Gwen Moore
Jared Polis
Jan Schakowsky
Jackie Speier
Mike Thompson
John Tierney
Mel Watt
Anthony Weiner
Undecided:
Andre Carson
Donna Christenson
Jim Cooper
Danny Davis
Bill Delahunt
Al Green
Phil Hare
Maurice Hinchey
Paul Hodes
Carolyn Maloney
Jim Moran
Grace Napolitano
Donald Payne
Charles Rangel
Laura Richardson
Linda Sanchez
Bobby Scott
John Tanner
Ed Towns
Peter Welch
These links all go to .wmv files they’re raw (unedited) of massive rallies for Ahmedi Nejad:
June 9th Tehran
June 8th in Azarbaijan
June 6th Esfahan
June 3rd Mashhad
June 1st Tehran
Raw data is difficult for neophytes to digest. I’d lean toward Juan Cole’s recent posts on the election anomalies until I see good analysis to the contrary.
Here’s the calling list:
http://action.firedoglake.com/page/s/supplemental
Yah, at present I incline to the view that it is more likely legitimate than not.
Are you familiar with Iran? Do you have the built up knowledge to assimulate the raw data intelligently?
The reports are very confusing – though the speed of announcement of Ahmedinejad’s victory makes me a bit queazy – and the intensity of the crackdown is bad.
I’ve been following one Iranian student’s twitter feed – http://twitter.com/Change_for_Iran and it’s quite disturbing.
As Americans, we need to press for no interference – as Patrick Disney wrote in the NIAC piece – and take care of our own business which this week means fighting the Supplemental in every way we can.
I feel the same way when I saw the courage and passion of the protesters!
However, as I watched Frontline last week, a documentary on The Tank Man from Tiananmen Square protests, and they showed a picture of him in front of the tanks to four Beijing University students, and they did not know what to make of the iconic picture. Censorship has been so strong, google’s enabling it, etc.
Also, as Kassandra said above, when the media minimizes or ignores or lies about the force of public protest it is demoralizing and frustrating.
The US has to watch the pot meet kettle moments on the world stage. We have lost all cred.
I wouldn’t. For a start the results track pretty well to this poll: Ahmadinejad Front Runner in Upcoming Presidential Elections; Iranians Continue to Back Compromise and Better Relations with US and West.
Secondly he hasn’t adduced any evidence to support his contentions.
Third it’s not the first time he’s shilled for regime change – granted he recanted and repented in the case of Irak, but once bitten twice shy as the English proverb goes.
Toll free numbers to call Hill switchboard (who will transfer you to your rep’s office)
from Katymine:
1 (800) 828 – 0498
1 (800) 459 – 1887
1 (800) 614 – 2803
1 (866) 340 – 9281
1 (866) 338 – 1015
1 (877) 851 – 6437
Lived there for a while with dad when he was studying for his PhD. But I wouldn’t describe Qom as typical of anything unless there’s such a thing as a typical religious/academic city.
Cambridge (UK) might be a western equivalent.
Thanks, Margot, I was just digging for those. You read my mind!
completely agree re iran non-interference. although i have a hard time believing there is not ongoing covert interference.
as for what to think of election related events in iran, i’m agnostic in my ignorance… although i’ve been following today’s debate at MoA with interest.
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2…..ction.html
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2…..nnect.html
….
p.s. will make some more calls tomorrow. thanks for the reminder.
Thanks for the phone numbers Margot!
thank you for sharing your perspective.
Gee, when I heard the progenitor of that survey interviewed on antiwar.com, I didn’t come with the impression that Ah would win with 69%.
The support for Cole’s hypothesis is surveys that suggest that Iran was not nearly so conservative as this vote suggests, unless there has been a radical change in the last several years. Now if there’s a reason not to believe the survey results, do tell.
I don’t know about Cole shilling for regime change. Link?
Thanks. Your contact is certainly greater than mine, or most. Thanks also for providing the context.
http://www.musavirlikler.gov.t…..ilizer.jpg
Certainly here goes: Juan Cole you’ll find the links to his archives on the right when you scroll down. :-)
I haven’t heard the interview to which you’re referring so I can’t comment.
I can say that from what people I know in Iran say that Ahmedi Nejad is hugely popular in the Tehran suburbs and outside of Tehran.
For the record:
I’m not saying that there wasn’t fraud. What I’m saying is that so far I havent seen any convincing evidence to back up all the assertions.
I do not see how massive demonstrations for Ahmadinejad are evidence one way or another who won the election. Massive demonstrations have been reported in the blog posts from pro-Moussavi camp. They are complaining that the Ahmadinejad demonstrators are armed and attacking people, and are being protected by the police.
The simple fact is, we do not know who won the election. It is such a mess, we may never know. I think some people (not necessarily the commenter above -I’m thinking more about the Antiwar site here which sometimes does that) are getting caught up in pre-emptive gaming and double-triple meta-guessing about the situation.
I think that there is enough evidence to say that the election was not fair, and the results should not be accepted. I hope the Obama adminstration does not accept them.
But that conclusion should be drawn from what we know as plain fact about what happened. The Iranian government massively interfered with communications to damage voter turnout by Moussavi supporters. They began public intimidation of the opposition before the election even began. By some method unknown to the public they were able to make a final determination of the majority of tens of millions of paper ballots cast within 24 hours of the election, and the Supreme Leader blessed the announced outcome as an edict of God. And now we have a vicious crackdown on protests, house arrests of opposition leaders, with no justification.
It is really a mess. I think we should call them as we see them, and what we see here stinks to high heaven.
I think it would be very unwise for the U.S. to interfere. But I don’t have the stomach to deny what I have read and seen. The warmongers are going to be out in force saying that we should bomb, no matter what happens, so we cannot let that affect our judgment.
I forgot to thank you for the links to those vote counts. I am going to try to download them. I do think that the statistical analysis of the vote counts so far on the blogs has been silly.
Khatami’s site has been posting vote counts that purportedly come from dissidents in the Interior Minstry, that show Moussavi winning. Do you know anything about that?
Precisely massive demos. Take a look here:
Mehrnews rather more “typical” Iranians. Not well off, not necessarily very well educated. Ahmedi Nejad is a populist whose spent the last few years shoring up his popularity.
I take your points. But I don’t agree that the result is not broadly accurate. I think it very likely that Ahmedi Nejad did win. I also think it possible that he didn’t win by the huge margin.
But the narrative being established here (the west) smells fishy to me.
The unfairness btw lies more I would think in the vetting process for the candidates than in the election itself.
I will call ‘Doc’ Hastings’ office in Washington State Monday, urging No. How come he does not appear in yr tallies?
No I don’t – nothing reliable anyway. What a friend of mine in Qom describes as a “semi-educated hunch” would be that the interior ministry wanted to avoid a second round run-off and overplayed their hand.
Sid … we decided to target a very specific list – those who voted No on May 14 on the Supplemental. If we can just hold those, we win. We then added those who signed Maxine Water’s letter objecting to the IMF funding as not being responsive to actual needs of poorest countries.
It will be interesting to see how this turns out. I apologize if seemed like I was jumping on you. I see people who are confusing shadow games in their heads with facing the complicated reality of what is happening.
Some people seem to rooting for Moussavi in what is, IMHO, the mistaken opinion that he is some kind of liberal who could bring real change. Others seem to be saying that since the Neocons want regime change, even if this election creates a crisis for the theocrats, we cannot look like we are for regime change, even if the current regime has fallen over the edge into brutal oppression.
I think best thing to do is to support democratic and progressive forces inside Iran, and face the facts as they are revealed over time. Which is different than trying to call the election, or conclude prematurely exactly what happened.
“But the narrative being established here (the west) smells fishy to me.”
From what we know now about the U.S. pundit class, any narrative they produce should smell fishy. Best to collect the facts as best we can and make up our own minds.
I agree.
I don’t think the “democratic and progressive” forces are necessarily with Moussavi a better characterisation would (I think) be to say that this is a fight between the first and second generation revolutionaries. The fight is an intra elite one between Ahmadi Nejad (2nd generation) vs. Rafsanjani (1st generation) and has become too vicious to be safely decided by voting.
There is a call out to wear green tomorrow in a show of support for the students being brutalized at Ishafen University and Tehran University by the military and religious cops.
I am very worried about the students and following their news but we really do have to be careful to not play into the opposition as US operatives line – or to stir up pressure for some sort of US intervention. Not saying don’t but saying we really need to be careful.
I have to say that I’d rather see Americans tomorrow try to reclaim democracy here by supporting the progressives against the Supplemental.
I do think that the regime is steadily losing support of the Iranian population. The blog Tehran Bureau has some interesting interviews with Iranians from different neighborhoods in Tehran. Rich and poor, in every neighborhood the reporter found a lot of people angry with the regime, and voting against Ahmadinejad as a protest vote.
I think the actions of the government have cast serious doubt on its legitimacy. The facts out so far on the very probably clumsy vote rigging, the voter intimindation and the brutal crackdown are more significant than what the outcome of the election was.
In my mind, which candidate “really” won is secondary. A rigged election is a rigged election. Government oppression of widespread unrest is unacceptable. And I think the theocracy is a bad thing that needs to go sooner or later.
How to support constructive change in Iran is an important question. Not sure what the answer is.
I’ve found NIAC to be a useful source – they seem pretty careful about what they pass along. etc. http://niacblog.wordpress.com/
Issue by issue. Publicize the Iranian death penalty for adultery, for homosexuality, and for apostasy.
Between Irak and Afghanistan and now Pakistan as well I think that offers of support for “constructive change” might not be entirely welcomed. In my experience of them Iranians are fiercely patriotic. Not sure that most Iranians would agree about theocracy. Reform around the edges, yes, some cultural let-up, maybe. The whole shebang? No I doubt it. I think that short term (without massive external support) the protests will at least in the short term die out.
Longer term? I don’t see any credible threat to the regime.
but who knows? It might be that a sustained and growing backlash could develop and could force changes.
I didn’t interpret the disgruntled Iranians who gave the interviews as wanting to get rid of the whole shebang. I didn’t read about anyone, except a very liberal college student, who wanted a secular government. They had very specific complaints -about restrictions on women’s rights to education (quota on women in universities), what they saw as unfair changes in family and divorce law, bad economy, general government repression of free speech and dissent.
Problem is that the current regime may interpret any change from its course as ‘the whole shebang’ which would in the long run endanger the the current regime.
Even by your standards that is a remarkable piece of dilettantism. Get a grip would you?
The death penalty is not only overwhelmingly supported but also overwhelmingly popular in Iran.
The word “Homophobic” doesn’t even begin to describe Iranian society. Where the population accepts without question the prosecution statements made in most cases that the accused either coerced or raped an underage boy.
There is no excuse for apostasy in Islamic law, a “liberal” might say that it’s not deserving of the death penalty in particular or even most cases.
So go right ahead in your arrogance and clumsy self-righteousness and confirm for them that the worst stereotypes they have of you are the truth.
People like you making suggestions like that are the kiss of death to reformers throughout the Middle East.
http://www.enjoyillinois.com/i…..lloons.jpg
AFAIK the majority of Iranian university students are women and that includes the scientific disciplines. Open to correction as I am going on memory but I think it’s something like 60% of the student body are females.
Not just universities by the way there are female students in the seminaries. Which means that in a few years you are going to see female Ayatollahs. If you see my colleage Mohammed Ibn Laith online you might ask him about that as he maintains a vigorous correspondence with some of them.
Yeah the last 4 years saw a clamping down or perhaps a rolling back of advances both for women in general but also for what I’ll call civic society. I wonder how sustainable that is?
As a general point I was talking about this with an Arabic colleague yesterday. She suggested we borrow the term “kulturkampf” to describe what’s going on in Iran. I might just take her up on that :-)
http://images.google.com/imgre…..N%26um%3D1
http://www.amnesty.org/en/libr…..50/2009/en
Those arrogant and self-righteous people at Human Rights Watch say that Iran leads the world,boy, in executing juvenile offenders.
http://www.hrw.org/en/news/200…..e-offender
As I said – even by your standards your “contribution” today is a quite remarkable piece of worthless dilettantism. You haven’t been able to address the facts that I gave.
Now here’s a little homework for you.
With reference to the Iranian legal system:
“At what age and for what categories of offense does an accused person cease to have the protections afforded to children”?
I think that the article mentions that the Iranian constitution guarantees freedom of religious belief. It’s only the Iranian government that kills people for attempting to exercise the right.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new…..-Iran.html
Or they could arrest you and charge you with being a Satan-worshipper if the government feels like it.
http://www.google.com/hostedne…..4EI1yc7Vjw
But the boy says not to meddle. If it’s popular, it’s all good.
That the best you can do? How disappointing. By all means please continue to make a spectacle of yourself. It’s quite funny in a pathetic sort of way.
Almost as funny as listening to you say how much you admire the Afghani law approving marital rape. Or reading how markiemark “understands” how someone might have to throw acid in the face of a girl who wants to go to school.
Macquerman, it is time to stop. We do not allow name calling, etc as you well know.
Disagreeing with Du or anyone else is one thing, but you’ve crossed the line.
Oh Let him be Siun if he wants to roll in the gutter spouting deliberate falsehoods let him. I’ve faced far worse in my time.
Washington Post has an opinion column up touting that poll that has been circulating the internet that says Ahmadinejad would win. The piece is by the people and organizations described below, anyone know who they are?
Ken Ballen is president of Terror Free Tomorrow: The Center for Public Opinion, a nonprofit institute that researches attitudes toward extremism. Patrick Doherty is deputy director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation. The groups’ May 11-20 polling consisted of 1,001 interviews across Iran and had a 3.1 percentage point margin of error.
links below
I have to wonder if there is a disinformation campaign going on. This poll has be touted by a lot of blog commenters who are flacking for Ahmadinejad and full of inane propaganda points (”Did you know Rasfanjani is a corrupt billionaire he pulls Moussavi’s strings” Yes thank you very much, I have read several times that Rasfanjani is a billionaire, and that he was opposing the big A. And I am under no illusian that any of the candidates are gems)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/…..inionsbox1
http://www.terrorfreetomorrow&…..200609.pdf
Now as to this poll. It is weird. Note that the top line results on the support for the presidential candidates adds up to 78%. Where are the other 22%? If you dig down inot the end of the poll, you will find that they did not get information on this quesition from 50% of the respondents (no preference stated: 7.6%, refused: 15% don’t know: 27%) That is actually an inconclusive poll. Seriously, it would be hard to take a survey that level of nonresponse seriously in any kind of serious analysis. I guess the authors need headlines. Apparently half the poll was conducted during the first two weeks of the Moussavi’s campaign.
I called BS on a silly Tehran Bureau analysis that claimed was proof the election was rigged, and Nate Silver had a silly debunking. So, I call BS on this too.
I guess the pollster business is a kind of racket. I expect better from people who pretend to be statisticians.
The issue for me is not that one person or another won, since we cannot know that. What we do know is that Iran has taken a very serious step backwards from a being a legitimate government, regardless of who “really” won, and that is a dangerous situation.
Absolutely, Siun. I told**** last time that I didn’t wish to talk with him again. I’m sorry that I answered him this time.
Have a long and happy life,Dub.
***MODNOTE: Edited to remove derogatory term.
Another try at the Washington Post link
http://www.washingtonpost.com/…..inionsbox1
I’ve “listened” to your comments and yield to your superior knowledge of political Iran.
But when it comes to the emergence of women and potential impact on the prevailing culture — whether in Iran or otherwise — I think you are kidding yourself.
Enrollment ratios of U.S. women in college have been climbing above 50% for decades, and yet we still have massive under-representation in corporate board rooms and in elected positions. Women compromise 17% of the Senate, less than 18% of the House, with a total of 266 women ever having served in Congress. Women here held less than 18% of corporate board seats as of 2004, and hold literally handfuls of positions as CEOs or Chairs of publicly-held corporations, in spite of female college graduates in the pipeline over the last 20 years.
By these pathetic measures, the U.S. is the best in class globally in terms of women’s advancement. Germany and the UK come close in double-digits, but some countries like Japan are in the basement. Don’t even get me started on compensation levels and percentage of workforce.
Given the condition of women’s advancement globally, and given Iran’s male-centric theocratic government founded deeply in national culture, your suggestion that the rolling-back of advances for Iranian women is unsustainable is rather naive. Advances for women everywhere are happening at a glacial pace, and it’s no different in Iran.
I’ll grant you, though, that the U.S. and Iran share this in common with regards to women’s advancement: Iran is one of six countries which has not signed the Convention on the Elimination of all Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW). The U.S., while a signatory since 1980, hasn’t ratified it.
If you haven’t seen these, this will impress you. Pictures from Iranian protests. People wanting democracy and accountability.
http://www.boston.com/bigpictu…..ction.html